Rays vs Guardians Game 1 Odds & Picks
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Cleveland Guardians are -125 home favorites in Game 1 of their best-of-three AL Wild Card series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, October 7
- Tampa Bay is coming into the post season on a five-game losing streak
- All of the Rays vs Guardians Game 1 odds & picks are analyzed in the story below
When you do the math, the Cleveland Guardians (92-70, 46-35 home) and Tampa Bay Rays (86-76, 35-46 away) should be nowhere near the MLB postseason. At $82.05 million, Cleveland’s payroll is 28th among 30 MLB clubs. Tampa Bay, with a team payroll of $99.5 million is 25th on the list.
Logic says not spending money is not economically feasible with winning. Reality says otherwise.
Cleveland won the AL Central Division title and is the #3 AL seed in the MLB playoff bracket. Wild card entry Tampa Bay is seeded sixth.
As they open their best-of-three AL Wild Card series, Cleveland is a -125 home favorites in Game 1.
Rays vs Guardians Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | +105 | +1.5 (-210) | O 6.5 (+100) |
| Cleveland Guardians | -125 | -1.5 (+175 | U 6.5 (-120) |
Odds as of October 6 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get Caesars Sportsbook bonus code and see the latest on Ohio sports betting.
At moneyline odds of -125, the Guardians have an implied probability of victory of 55.56% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Cleveland would create a payout of $18.00.
First pitch at Progressive Field goes at 12:07pm ET on Friday, October 7. The weather forecast is calling for rain with 14 mph wind and a temperature of 50 degrees.
MLB betting trends are displaying that the Guardians are pulling a slight edge in moneyline wagering. There’s 53% of handle and 55% of bets backing Cleveland.
The Guardians are the +3500 co-11th betting choice in the World Series odds, while the Rays are at 10th at +3000. As far as the MLB pennant odds are concerned, Cleveland is the sixth pick in this betting market at +1300 and Tampa Bay is at +1000.
Tampa Bay vs Cleveland Probable Pitchers
In the MLB lineups, it’s a contender in the Cy Young odds squaring off against a past AL Cy Young Award winner in Game 1.
The Rays are giving the ball to left-hander Shane McClanahan. He’s listing at +10000 in the AL Cy Young betting. McClanahan finished among the top 8% of MLB pitchers in wOBA (.248), but in the bottom 5% in Max EV (116.2).
"Keep it simple, attack, but most of all, enjoy it."
Shane McClanahan joins the broadcast and discusses the mindset headed into his postseason start.
Watch ➡️ https://t.co/L0cmo8VXCK pic.twitter.com/q15IMP7SPN
— Bally Sports Sun: Rays (@BallyRays) October 5, 2022
McClanahan is struggling heading into the postseason. He’s lost his last three starts and surrendered 11 earned runs over his past 14 innings of work for a 7.07 ERA. Over that span, he’s also enduring issues with control ( seven walks against seven strikeouts) and keeping the ball in the yard (three home runs).
On July 31, the Guardians roughed up McClanahan for seven hits and five earned runs in 4.1 innings. He took the loss in a 5-3 setback.
McClanahan vs Bieber Stats
| 12-8 | Record | 13-8 |
| 2.54 | ERA | 2.88 |
| 2.78 | xERA | 3.51 |
| 0.93 | WHIP | 1.04 |
| 5.11 | SO/W Ratio | 5.50 |
Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber didn’t equal his 2018 AL Cy Young Award performance this season, but he was a solid staff ace regardless. His bases on balls percentage of 4.6 put him in the top 7% of AL pitchers. McClanahan (2.54) and Bieber (2.88) were 5-6 in the AL in ERA.
Shane Bieber, Vicious 81mph Knuckle Curve…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/gjgX3jRKge
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 2, 2022
Bieber has been outstanding over the last month of the regular season. He’s 5-0 with a 2.20 ERA over his last six starts. He’s struck out 34 and walked three over that span.
Facing the Mariners on Aug. 26, Bieber checked Seattle batters on one earned run over seven innings of work, but didn’t factor in the decision during a 3-2 loss. Cleveland is 20-11 this season when Bieber starts.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Rays Batters | Batting Average vs Bieber | Orioles Batters | Batting Average vs Eovaldi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ji-Man Choi | .385 | Andres Gimenez | .000 |
| Wander Franco | .333 | Austin Hedges | .000 |
| David Peralta | .333 | Steven Kwan | .333 |
| Harold Ramirez | .333 | Jose Ramirez | .333 |
| Jose Siri | .500 | Amed Rosario | .333 |
| Taylor Walls | .500 | Myles Straw | .500 |
Tampa Bay’s Jose Siri is 1-for-2 (.500) off of Bieber and it was a two-run homer. Taylor Walls is also 1-for-2. (.500). Ji-Man Choi is 5-for-13 (.385) with two doubles and an RBI.
Jose Siri is a center fielder for the Tampa Bay Rays
He has 2 triples, has .875 SB%, and has .214 batting average this season ⚾#RaysUp #MLB pic.twitter.com/jQ7ISEdik8— Random MLB Stats (@RandomMLBStats_) October 2, 2022
Cleveland’s Myles Straw is 1-for-2 (.500) with two RBI against McClanahan. Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario and Steven Kwan are all 1-for-3 (.333). Ramirez has driven in a run.
Rays vs Guardians Prediction
Cleveland is that sneaky good team no one is talking about entering the MLB postseason. The Guardians are 23-6 since Sept. 5. Bieber is the just the calm, experienced presence to get them off to a winning start in the playoffs.
The schedule is set for the AL Wild Card round as the Guardians host the Rays at Progressive Field this weekend! pic.twitter.com/DFd5rJwK9S
— clevelanddotcom (@clevelanddotcom) October 5, 2022
Meanwhile, the Rays are entering postseason play losers of five in a row. McClanahan is enduring his worst stretch of the season.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-125)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
