Phillies vs Astros Game 1 Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Updated: October 28, 2022 at 7:21 am EDTPublished:
- In the Phillies vs Astros Game 1 odds, Houston is set as -170 favorites
- Houston is playing in the World Series for the fourth time since 2017
- See World Series Game 1 predictions and best bets, below
What the Philadelphia Phillies (8-2, 4-2 away) were accomplishing on the diamond to get to the World Series looks impressive, until it’s put alongside the achievements of their opponents, the Houston Astros (7-0, 3-0 away).
The Astros have yet to taste defeat in the MLB postseason. Houston is just the third team to go through the Division Series and League Championship Series stages without suffering a loss in baseball history.
Philadelphia is also poised to make MLB playoff history. The #6 seed in the National League, the Phillies are the highest-seeded club to ever reach the World Series. No team better than a #4 seed played in the Fall Classic prior to this year.
Oddsmakers are going with the experienced hand to start out this best-of-seven series. Houston is set as -170 home favorites to win Game 1. The Astros are playing in the World Series for the fourth time since 2017.
Phillies vs Astros Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | +143 | +1.5 (-165) | O 6.5 (-125) |
| Houston Astros | -170 | -1.5 (+140) | U 6.5 (+105) |
Odds as of October 26 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get a Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.
At moneyline odds of -170, a bet on the Astros would have an implied probability of victory of 62.96% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Houston would create a payout of $15.90.
First pitch at Minute Maid Park goes at 8:03 pm ET on Friday, October 28. The weather forecast is calling for cloudy skies with 11 mph wind and a temperature of 68 degrees. The Phillies are given +360 odds to win Game 1 and go on to take the World Series in the MLB playoff bracket.
Philadelphia outfielder Bryce Harper is the favorite to win the World Series MVP Award at a betting line of +600. A 4-2 Astros victory is set as the most probable series outcome at odds of +375.
Philadelphia vs Houston Probable Pitchers
In the MLB lineups, Astros right-hander Justin Verlander, the favorite in the AL Cy Young Award odds, will be given the ball for Game 1. On the surface, this is an entirely logical approach.
Verlander led the American League this season with an 18-4 slate and a 1.75 ERA. His winning percentage (.818), hits per nine innings (6.0), and WHIP (.083) were also league-leading totals.
Justin Verlander
101 mph vs. the Yankees in the 2006 postseason at age 23
98 mph vs. the Yankees in the 2022 postseason at age 39 pic.twitter.com/Nnuc12sSnn
— David Adler (@_dadler) October 20, 2022
This will be the 11th time that Verlander has taken the mound for Game 1 of an MLB playoff series. Overall, he’s 6-3 with a 4.47 ERA. However, the two previous occasions in which Verlander was the Game 1 World Series starter have not gone well at all. He’s 0-2 with an 11.00 ERA.
Verlander vs Nola Stats
| 18-4 | Record | 11-13 |
| 1.75 | ERA | 3.25 |
| 2.66 | xERA | 2.74 |
| 0.83 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| 6.38 | SO/W Ratio | 8.10 |
Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola will be making his third postseason start of both 2022 and his MLB career. So far, he’s 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA.
Nola didn’t allow an earned run in back-to-back victories at St. Louis and over Atlanta. However, the San Diego Padres roughed him up for six earned runs in 4.2 innings of work while handing Nola an 8-5 loss in Game 2 of the NLCS.
Aaron Nola says Rob Thomson told him he was starting Game 1 of the World Series while celebrating on field at CBP after winning NLCS #WorldSeries pic.twitter.com/k8Hp55fnzR
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) October 27, 2022
This season, Nola led the National League in strikeouts/walks ratio (8.10) and bases on balls allowed per nine innings (1.3). He also tied for the NL lead with one complete-game shutout.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Phillies Batters | Batting Average vs Verlander | Astros Batters | Batting Average vs Nola |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos | .125 | Jose Altuve | .400 |
| Bryce Harper | .400 | Yordan Alvarez | .333 |
| Jean Segura | .286 | David Hensley | 1.000 |
| Matt Vierling | .000 | Christian Vazquez | .286 |
Philadelphia outfielder Bryce Harper is 2-for-5 (.400) when facing Verlander. Â Jean Segura is 4-for-14 (.286) with a homer and two RBI.
Bryce Harper, but Moneyball pic.twitter.com/9b4glvpTua
— Phillies Muse (@Phillies_Muse) October 24, 2022
Houston’s Jose Altuve is 2-for-5 (.400) off of Nola. Yordan Alvarez, the top Astros bet for World Series MVP at +600, is 1-for-3 (.333) against Nola. David Hensley is 1-for-1 (1.000).
Game 1 Phillies vs Astros Prediction
Going back to the regular season, the Astros have won nine in a row. The last team to beat Houston? Philadelphia, behind the pitching of Nola, who carried a perfect game into the seventh inning in that game.
Phillies working out in Houston
Astros haven’t lost in 3 weeks. Won 9 straight games
Their last loss. Aaron Nola beat them in here to clinch Phillies playoffs. Aaron had a perfect game going into 7th inning and gave up just 2 hits
Aaron Nola starts Game 1 tomorrow night pic.twitter.com/m0iy89LVYc
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) October 27, 2022
This the fifth World Series appearance for the Astros. They are 0-4 straight up in Game 1 all-time. That includes an 0-2 skid at Minute Maid Park in the last two World Series openers played by Houston.
Factor that alongside Verlander’s personal World Series Game 1 woes, and this one is setting up perfectly for an upset play on the Phillies.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML (+143)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
