2023-24 NFL Season Predictions Using Proprietary Metrics
By Matt McEwan
Updated:
The 2023-24 NFL season is fast approaching! While we’re all excited to bet Week 1, there is no shortage of betting opportunities in the offseason thanks to NFL futures markets. Although some futures markets carry a heavy overround—not all do—it does not mean there is no value to be found.
Using my three proprietary metrics, which all plug in highly valuable and credible data from sportsbooks, I aim to identify the best futures bets to make for the upcoming NFL season. You can click through each metric below!
NFL Record Predictions
My NFL record predictions, which use my SBD win probabilities calculation, is by far the most exhaustive metric of the three. In here, I aim to find the most likely win-loss record for each team while revealing the probability for each team finishing with every possible record from 0-17 to 17-0.
With that data, we can then see possible edges on the NFL win totals markets. Check out SBD’s NFL record predictions.
NFL Strength of Schedule
Most major sports media outlets rely on last season’s records to determine strength of schedule for the upcoming season. I don’t think I need to go into much detail in explaining how this is flawed. So, I will just say, teams change dramatically year over year.
I have come up with a new way, which is much more forward-looking and consistent with who each team is right now instead of last year, to calculate NFL SOS. See NFL strength of schedule for all 32 teams.
NFL Power Rankings
Every major sports media outlet has their own version of NFL power rankings. But they’re all based on someone’s opinion. There’s nothing wrong with that, as it has generally just been a way to start conversation and ignite the passion of each fanbase. I have gone a different direction with SBD’s power rankings, though.
These NFL power rankings are based off betting odds from sportsbooks. The objectivity and formulaic approach has allowed us to discover some very interesting trends from past years that open up great betting opportunities for the upcoming season. Check out SBD’s 2023 NFL power rankings.
Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
