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The Best Home Run Props to Bet Today – Get a +14156 HR Parlay on Wednesday, April 30th

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in MLB Baseball

Published:


Apr 29, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Detroit Tigers left fielder Kerry Carpenter (30) rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
  • We’ve got a day/night split slate waiting for us on Wednesday, April 30
  • Sometimes, the smart move is to spread the action out across both slates
  • See below for my +14156 home run parlay today (April 30th)

Wednesday might just be the greatest day during the MLB season. We get multiple daytime games, which makes it feel like a Sunday, but then we get multiple night games, which makes it feel like a Friday. We’re talking the best of both worlds here, but it’s still the middle of the week. It’s mind-blowing when you think about it.

Since we’re on the cusp of a mind-blowing experience, we might as well celebrate, and the best way I know how to do that is by gambling. We’re talking dingers here. All we have to do is find three guys on this giant slate that we know are going yard. Lucky for us, if you don’t have time, you can just tail my guys. Feels easy.

MLB Home Run Parlay Today (April 30)

PickOdds
Kerry Carpenter HR+340
Zach Neto HR+500
Kyle Tucker HR+440
Three-Leg Parlay+14156

MLB odds as of April 30 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s list of the top sports gambling apps.

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CLAIM OFFER

Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run

We call this guy Barry since he looks like a modern-day Barry Bonds when he swings a baseball bat. I was hoping for a breakout year for him this year and it looks like that is happening. The guy already has seven home runs in just 94 at-bats. It’s not even warm yet!

If we’re being honest (we are), I’m surprised he only has seven home runs after looking at his barrel rates.

PitchCarpenter Barrel Rate vs Pitch from RHP (2024-2025)Blubaugh Hard Hit Rate vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball22%N/A
Changeup16%N/A

Kerry (Barry) is a daytime guy, which got me on this move to begin with. He can hit at any time of the day, but more than half of his dingers this season have come during day games. The thing is, on top of playing during the day, Carpenter is going to see AJ Blubaugh, who is making his Major League debut. Blubaugh also has a hard time with lefties as evidenced by .559 slugging percentage against them in the minors this season. I think Kerry (Barry) leads off this game with a dinger.

  • The Bet: Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+340) – FanDuel
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Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Zach Neto to Hit a Home Run

Moving right along, we’re going to hit the Los Angeles Angels/Seattle Mariners game next. Not only that, but we’re doing it with another leadoff guy that could really get us cooking with grease early in this thing. What if the first two guys in this thing lead off their games with dingers? We’d only need one more guy to put us into another tax bracket.

The thing is, judging by what Zach Neto is going to see pitch-wise today, it’s not crazy to think he’ll send a fan home with a souvenir.

PitchNeto Hard Hit Rate vs Pitch from RHP (2024-2025)Hancock Hard Hit Rate vs LHB (2025)
Sinker40%60%
Four-seam Fastball60%100%

Neto is only half of this thing, as Emerson Hancock is the other half. I love Emerson, so it’s tough to say this, but he might be a dinger guy. Especially to righties. The guy gave up 10 dingers to righties last season in just 139 plate appearances. That’s insane bad. He’s never seen most of the current Angels, so he’s likely to slip up. My guess is, it’s on the first one he sees. This feels free.

  • The Bet: Zach Neto to Hit a Home Run (+500) – FanDuel

Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #3 – Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run

When we cross over from the day slate to the night slate with a dinger parlay intact, we have to make sure we have a guy we can trust in the night game. Not just any trustworthy guy, but a Circle of Trust guy. One who has been in the Circle of Trust for many years and knows what it takes to stuff cash in people’s pockets.

That guy tonight is Kyle Tucker. It was an easy choice given what he’ll see from Carmen Modzinski.

PitchTucker Barrel Rate vs Pitch from RHP (2025)Modzinski ISO vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball35%.300
Changeup22%.400

I’m a Carmen guy, but it’s noticeable that he might be on the verge of getting smashed. The weather could be one of the main reasons he’s only given up two dingers this season. I’m not a weather guy, though, so I don’t know. The thing is, his four-seamer is getting smoked by lefties, and the second he busts that thing out tonight, it’s highly likely to get smoked again. This time we’ve got wind blowing out to right field and a moderately warm temp. Simply put, Kyle Tucker is going deep. Feels right.

  • The Bet: Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+440) – FanDuel
  • SBD 3-Man HR Strategy Results: -3.575 Units
John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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