Pacquiao vs Barrios Odds, Prediction, Parlay Picks & Fight Details

• Manny Pacquiao comes out of retirement to challenge WBC welterweight champion Mario Barrios on Saturday night
• The latest boxing odds show Barrios as a solid favorite at -250 to -275
• Read below for Pacquiao vs Barrios odds, predictions, picks and how to watch

Boxing legend Manny Pacquiao ends his four-year retirement to face WBC welterweight champion Mario Barrios at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, July 19th.

The 46-year-old Filipino icon looks to break his own record as the oldest welterweight champion in history, live on Prime Video PPV, with the main card starting at 8 p.m. ET. The current Pacquiao vs Barrios odds have the younger champion as a significant favorite.

I’ve made my Pacquiao vs Barrios prediction, broken down the odds, and will tell you how to stream the fight.

Pacquiao vs Barrios Odds

In the Pacquiao vs Barrios odds at BetMGM, Barrios is a -250 moneyline favorite, giving him about a 71% implied probability of winning.

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Odds as of July 18, 2025, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on Pacquiao vs Barrios.

Fight Details + How to Watch

The event will be available exclusively on Prime Video Pay-Per-View for $79.95 in the United States. The fight card start time on the East Coast is 8 pm, with ring walks expected around 11 pm.

Pacquiao Boxing Analysis

Manny Pacquiao (62-8-2, 39 KOs) shocked the boxing world by announcing his comeback. The 46-year-old Hall of Famer hasn’t fought since losing to Yordenis Ugas in August 2021, when he looked every bit his age in dropping a unanimous decision.

He’s the only eight-division champion in boxing history, but at 46, the questions are less about his legacy and more about what he has left in the tank. In that Ugas loss, Pacquiao was outlanded in total punches (151-130), jabs (50-42) and power punches (101-88).

Sure, he’s stayed active with exhibition bouts, but real championship boxing is different. Pacquiao’s trainer promises they’ve “spent a lot of time together” preparing, but age catches up to everyone. The big question? Will Manny’s legs hold up over twelve hard rounds?

If Pacquiao wants to pull off the upset, he needs to start fast, push the pace early, and turn this into a dogfight before his 46-year-old legs give out. His best chance comes in making Barrios uncomfortable with angles and combinations.

Pacquiao vs Barrios Tale of the Tape

Barrios Boxing Analysis

Mario Barrios (29-2-1, 18 KOs) defends his WBC title against a legend. The 30-year-old “El Azteca” won interim gold in September 2023 and was elevated to full champion status after a draw with Abel Ramos in November 2024.

Barrios brings youth, size, and momentum into this fight. His only losses came against elite opposition – an 11th-round TKO to Gervonta Davis in 2021 and a decision loss to Keith Thurman in 2022. Since then, he’s won his last four fights.

Barrios is a technical boxer, utilizing his 6-foot height and 71-inch reach to maintain control of the ring space. He might not be a knockout artist, but his punches carry real power, especially to the body. His jab and physicality could definitely create some trouble for the smaller Pacquiao.

Barrios needs to fight tall, lean on Pacquiao when he gets inside, and test that old body early to keep his belt. If he can survive Pacquiao’s early attack and drag him into the later rounds, his youth should win out.

Pacquiao vs Barrios Prediction

Look, I respect everything Pacquiao has done for boxing. But four years out of the ring at 46? That’s a dangerous combination against a young, hungry champion with serious physical advantages.

Barrios will use those six inches of height and four inches of reach to keep Pacquiao on the outside. When the legend tries to get inside, expect Barrios to tie him up and lean on him. That size difference is going to matter more as the rounds tick by.

Pacquiao will have his moments early, as his instincts are still sharp. But somewhere around the middle rounds, Father Time starts collecting. The legs slow down, the reflexes fade, and those Barrios power shots start landing cleaner.

The betting line makes sense here. Barrios should control the fight with his jab, rough up Pacquiao on the inside, and either force a late stoppage or cruise to a wide decision. My gut says the corner or referee saves Pacquiao from himself.

Pacquiao vs Barrios Picks:

• Over 10.5 Total Rounds (-135 to -138)
• Barrios ML (-275)
• Parlay: Over 10.5 Rounds + Barrios to Win (+105)

Why Over 10.5 Rounds is the Best Value Play

Both Fighters Go the Distance Often

• Barrios: 5 of his last 6 fights have gone over 10.5 rounds
• Pacquiao: 10 of his last 11 fights (since 2013) have gone over 10.5 rounds

Style Matchup Favors Length

Barrios is a skilled fighter who controls the distance rather than going for early knockouts. Even though Pacquiao is getting older, he will probably box smart and win rounds instead of taking unnecessary risks.

Pacquiao’s Legendary Durability

The Filipino icon has only been knocked out once since 2012 (Marquez). His pride and ring IQ should help him survive even if he’s losing rounds. Remember, he went the distance with Ugas despite being thoroughly outboxed.

Same Game Parlay Recommendation

Want better odds? Go with the Same Game Parlay. Taking Over 10.5 Rounds + Barrios to Win gives you plus money odds around +105.

This bet is basically for Barrios to win by decision or late stoppage. Since Barrios went the distance with Thurman and couldn’t finish Ugas or Ramos, this seems like the most likely result. This parlay pays plus money for the most likely outcome: a Barrios win that goes deep into the championship rounds.