A.I. NFL Player Prop Picks for Week 4 – Best A.I. Prop Bet for Each Game

• Our A.I. has generated its NFL player-prop picks for all Week 4 games
• The A.I.’s NFL prop picks are 17-15 on the season
• See A.I. player prop picks for NFL Week 4

The Seahawks and Cardinals will kickoff NFL Week 4 in roughly 24 hours, so it’s time for my new weekly tradition of posting our A.I.’s best player-prop pick for each game on the NFL slate this week. Week 4 includes the first International Series game of the season between the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers at 9:30 am ET on Sunday in Dublin, Ireland.

The table below sets out the A.I.’s prop pick for each game, roughly in chronological order, along with the sportsbook currently offering the best price on the relevant bet. Under the table, find the A.I.’s rationale for all 16 Week 4 prop picks.

A.I. NFL Player Prop Picks for Week 4

A.I. prop picks generated on Wednesday, Sep. 24th. Bookmark SBD’s NFL player props page to see up-to-the-minute lines for every player in every game this season.

A.I. NFL player-props record (2025): 17-15 (+0.44 units)

Seahawks vs Cardinals A.I. Prop Pick: Darnold Over 216.6 Passing Yards

A.I. reasoning: “Darnold has consistently exceeded this mark in recent weeks, and with the Cardinals’ secondary hobbled by injuries to key players like Garrett Williams, he is in an prime position to exploit these weaknesses and surpass his projected total.”

Vikings vs Steelers A.I. Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 77.5 Receiving Yards

A.I. reasoning: “Jefferson’s receiving yards prop presents exceptional value as Minnesota’s primary offensive weapon. The superstar receiver should see heavy target share from Wentz against a Pittsburgh secondary that has surrendered __ passing yards through three games.”

Saints vs Bills A.I. Prop Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 35.5 Receiving Yards

A.I. reasoning: “The Saints lack the linebacker personnel to consistently bracket Buffalo’s intermediate passing attack. The Bills’ 34:59 time of possession average suggests extended drives that favor pass-catching volume. In a projected blowout scenario, Buffalo will likely maintain aggressive offensive play-calling to establish early separation, creating multiple target opportunities for their primary tight end option.”

Titans vs Texans A.I. Pick: Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown

A.I. reasoning: “Tony Pollard is the focal point of the Titans offense, especially near the goal line. The Texans’ defense has been solid, but Tennessee has demonstrated a [comparatively] better ability to finish drives. At +135 odds, Pollard offers solid value to be the one to break the plane in what projects to be a low-scoring slugfest.”

Browns vs Lions A.I. Prop Pick: Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing TDs

A.I. reasoning: “Goff has been the conductor of Detroit’s offensive symphony, leading an attack that has scored 103 points through three games. The Lions have exceeded the game total in six of their last seven games as favorites, indicating consistent offensive production. Against a Browns defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in road games, this prop offers excellent value at -115.”

Commanders vs Falcons A.I. Pick: Drake London Under 64.5 Receiving Yards

A.I. reasoning: “This represents a direct fade of Atlanta’s anemic offense. The Falcons average just 14.0 points per game and have been allergic to the end zone, converting only two of seven red zone trips all season. For London to clear this number, Atlanta’s passing attack would need efficiency it hasn’t demonstrated under Michael Penix Jr. Washington’s defense compounds the problem, generating 3.0 sacks per game and applying consistent pressure that limits explosive plays.”

Eagles vs Buccaneers A.I. Prop Pick: Saquon Barkley Anytime TD

A.I. reasoning: “This prop directly correlates with Philadelphia’s perfect red zone execution. The Eagles have converted all eight red zone opportunities into touchdowns, with Barkley serving as their primary goal-line weapon. His dual-threat ability and the team’s commitment to establishing the ground and pound approach near the end zone makes -141 odds represent solid value for their most reliable scoring option.”

Panthers vs Patriots A.I. Player Prop: Drake Maye Under 1.5 Passing TDs

A.I. reasoning: “This prop aligns perfectly with our low-scoring game projection. Maye has shown growing pains typical of [young] quarterbacks, particularly in the red zone where execution becomes more demanding. With New England projected to struggle offensively against a Panthers defense that already has interceptions this season, expecting multiple touchdown passes from the sophomore is optimistic.”

Giants vs Chargers A.I. Pick: Omarion Hampton Anytime TD

A.I. reasoning: “The game script heavily favors Los Angeles establishing their ground game early and often. Hampton enters as the primary ball-carrier with his rushing plus receiving total set at 85.5 yards, indicating expected heavy usage. Against a Giants defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry, Hampton should find adequate running lanes while benefiting from multiple red zone opportunities. … Hampton’s anytime touchdown odds represent solid value given the projected game flow and his role as the primary goal-line option.”

Jaguars vs 49ers A.I. Prop Pick: Travis Etienne Jr Over 51.5 Rushing Yards

Bears vs Raiders A.I. Player Prop Pick: Geno Smith Under 1.5 Passing TDs

A.I. reasoning: “This prop offers value at even money, backed by both offensive limitations and defensive matchup advantages. The Raiders’ red-zone struggles create a perfect storm for limiting Smith’s touchdown opportunities. The game script favors a Raiders ground-control approach at home, limiting Smith’s aerial touchdown opportunities. Getting even-money on a quarterback whose offense has managed fewer than two touchdowns per contest represents outstanding betting value.”

Colts vs Rams A.I. Player Prop Pick: Puka Nacua Over 91.5 Receiving Yards

A.I. reasoning: “Nacua remains Matthew Stafford’s primary target in an aerial attack that will need to match Indianapolis’ explosive pace. With the Colts’ defense showing declining metrics and Indianapolis likely to build early leads through Jonathan Taylor, expect Stafford to lean heavily on his top receiver. Nacua’s target share and the projected game script create an ideal environment for him to eclipse this number.”

Ravens vs Chiefs A.I. Prop Pick: Travis Kelce Over 4.5 Receptions

A.I. reasoning: “In a game where the Chiefs are underdogs and will likely need to pass to keep up with Baltimore’s high-powered offense, Patrick Mahomes will lean on his most trusted target. Kelce’s receiving-yards line is set at a modest 39.5, suggesting his role in this game will be as a high-volume, short-to-intermediate option. At +115 odds, this prop offers fantastic value for a player of his caliber to hit a very achievable benchmark.”

Cowboys vs Packers A.I. Player Prop: Dak Prescott Over 0.5 INTs

Jets vs Dolphins A.I. Prop Pick: Justin Fields Anytime TD

A.I. reasoning: “Fields’ mobility becomes a critical factor when the Jets’ offense stalls on third down. His scrambling ability and designed red-zone runs make him a legitimate scoring threat. At +190 odds, this prop offers excellent value for a quarterback who often creates with his legs when pocket protection breaks down.”

Bengals vs Broncos A.I. Prop Pick: Jake Browning Over 1.5 Passing TDs

A.I. reasoning: “This prop offers exceptional value at plus-money odds and aligns perfectly with our over prediction. For Cincinnati to cover the spread and contribute to a high-scoring affair, Browning must deliver an efficient performance through the air. The Broncos’ defense generates consistent pressure but lacks the ball-hawking ability to derail opposing quarterbacks, managing just one interception in three games.”