Newcastle vs Qarabag Prediction, Goalscorer Picks, Odds & Injuries (2nd Leg)

• Newcastle returns to St James’ Park as massive favorites against Qarabag
• Winger Anthony Gordon is averaging a staggering 1.11 goals per 90 minutes in Champions League play
• See my top Newcastle vs Qarabag picks and goalscorer props to target, plus the latest odds and injury reports

After dismantling Qarabag FK 6-1 in Baku last week, Newcastle United welcomes the Azerbaijani outfit to Tyneside for the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Playoff Round on Tuesday, Feb 24. Kickoff is set for 3:00 pm ET at St James’ Park in Newcastle upon Tyne

While the tie is decided on aggregate, the betting market offers intriguing angles as the Magpies look to formalize their spot in the Round of 16. Below, I have set out the latest match odds (moneyline, total, spread), my three favorite Newcastle vs Qarabag picks, and the injury reports.

Go to: ODDS || PICKS || INJURIES

Newcastle vs Qarabag Odds

The best moneyline price on Newcastle is currently -625 at BetMGM, while the draw is at a market-best +860 at bet365, and Qarabag +1600 at DraftKings. The total-goals line is sitting at 3.5 with the over juiced to -138 (or shorter) and the under as long as +126 at FanDuel.

This match is also available to bet at prediction site Kalshi, where the “yes” price on Newcastle to win is 87¢ (potentially returning 13¢ on every “yes” contract). The draw is just 9¢ (returning 91¢ per contract) and Qarabag is a mere 6¢ (returning 94¢ per contract). Converted to traditional moneyline terms, Kalshi has Newcastle at -670, the draw at +1011, and Qarabag at +1900. If you want to bet either the draw or Qarabag to win, do so at Kalshi.

You can click on the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code.

Odds as of February 24 at 10:04 am ET. Learn how to utilize prediction markets.

Line Movement

Newcastle opened as an even steeper favorite at -833, but the line has faded slightly. Qarabag’s odds shortened from +2000 to +1600 (or shorter). This movement may reflect sharp bettors anticipating a more conservative approach from Newcastle given the five-goal aggregate lead.

In the totals market, the over opened at -130 and has been bet up to -138 or higher. The spread has settled at 2.5, with Newcastle moving from -130 to even-money to cover.

Newcastle vs Qarabag Picks, Best Bets & Score Prediction

Despite the “dead rubber” narrative, the statistical gap between these two rosters at St James’ Park suggests Newcastle will not just win, but win handily.

Spread Pick: Newcastle -2.5 Handicap (+100 at theScore or bet365)

Laying 2.5 goals requires a dominant performance, but the metrics support a rout. Even on the road after a gruelling trip to Azerbaijan, Newcastle completely overwhelmed Qarabag, outscoring them by five while holding a 5-to-1 ratio in shots, and an even bigger 7.5-to-1 ratio in shots on target.

Key Analytical Factors:

• Gordon’s Production: Anthony Gordon is scoring at a rate of 1.11 goals per 90 minutes in this competition. His individual output alone outpaces Qarabag’s away production.
• Secondary Threats: Harvey Barnes has contributed five goals in nine appearances, ensuring the threat from the opposite flank remains lethal.
• Venue Metric: Qarabag’s struggles with travel and elite atmospheres are well-documented – they rank 30th in away defense, conceding 3.25 goals per game on the road.

Newcastle Attacking Profile

Total-Goals Pick: Over 3.5 Goals (-138 at bet365)

The market move to -137 on the over is justified. Newcastle has conceded eight goals in nine matches. They are susceptible to conceding, especially without Bruno Guimaraes shielding the back four. Newcastle’s 13 yellow cards in nine games reflect aggressive defending that often leads to set-piece chances for opponents. Defender Dan Burn (198cm) is also a massive aerial threat on corners against a Qarabag backline that lacks verticality.

Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Anthony Gordon (+100 at bet365)

• Implied Probability: 50% at even-money odds.
• Actual Rate: Gordon has 10 goals in 9 matches – his scoring frequency significantly exceeds the implied probability.
• Matchup Edge: Qarabag’s defense lacks the pace to track Gordon’s runs in behind, as evidenced by his four-goal haul in the first leg.

Score Prediction: Newcastle 4 – 1 Qarabag

Newcastle United vs Qarabag FK Injury Reports

Newcastle

• Bruno Guimaraes (Midfielder): Out. Grade-three hamstring injury (Feb 10). Expected back early April.
• Malick Thiaw (Defender): Suspended. Third UCL yellow card in first leg.
• Sven Botman (Defender): Doubtful.
• Fabian Schar (Defender): Out. Long-term ankle injury.
• Tino Livramento (Defender): Out. Thigh injury.
• Lewis Miley (Midfielder): Doubtful. Thigh issue.

Qarabag

• Full Squad Available. Qarabag travels with a clean bill of health.

Betting Impact: The absence of Guimaraes, Schar, Thiaw (suspended), and potentially Botman weakens Newcastle’s defensive core. While their attack should cover the spread, the depleted backline validates the over 3.5 goals play, as Qarabag is more likely to score against a makeshift defense.

Qarabag vs Newcastle Public-Betting Splits

• Newcastle ML: 95.53% of money
• Qarabag ML: 3.84% of money
• Draw: 0.63% of money
• Over Total: 95.78% of money
• Under Total: 4.22% of money

Typically, over 95% of money on one side signals a potential trap. However, there is no “sharp” money opposing the public. The consensus is absolute: the market expects a high-scoring Newcastle victory.

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