Pirates vs Braves Predictions, Picks & Splits (June 7)

• The Braves are -158 favorites today as they look to complete the three-game sweep of the Pirates
• Atlanta starter Bryce Elder boasts a strong 2.63 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP
• Get the best Pirates vs Braves predictions, picks and splits for June 7, below

The Atlanta Braves (43-21) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (34-30) this afternoon at 1:35 p.m. Eastern Time at Truist Park. As clear home favorites in the MLB odds, the Braves are looking to complete the three-game sweep of the visitors.

The road underdog Pirates will be desperate to bounce back today and generate more offense to avoid dropping another game. It won’t be easy however, as Atlanta boasts loads of elite talent like Ronald Acuña Jr and Matt Olson.

Below, I’ll break down my favorite Pirates vs Braves predictions, picks and splits for the June 7th NL showdown.

Pirates vs Braves Predictions

• Braves Moneyline (-158 at DraftKings)
• Over 8.5 Runs (-118 at BetMGM)

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My favorite picks today are the Atlanta moneyline and over 8.5 runs. The Braves, a top-three World Series odds contender, have a distinct starting pitching advantage today with Bryce Elder taking the mound. Elder boasts a strong 2.63 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP across 78.2 innings pitched. In stark contrast, the Pirates are sending Bubba Chandler to the hill. He has struggled with command and contact, yielding a 5.05 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP.

The Braves’ pitching staff as a whole holds a clear edge with a 3.21 team ERA compared to a 4.09 ERA for the Pirates.

The Braves feature a relentless lineup slashing a combined .255 at home with a .721 OPS. Given Chandler’s propensity for allowing base runners, the Braves’ offense is highly capable of doing the heavy lifting to push the total Over on their own.

Bryce Elder vs Bubba Chandler

Elder’s ability to limit base runners has been the key to his success, evidenced by his excellent 1.08 WHIP and low .213 opponent batting average.

While he does not possess overpowering strikeout stuff, Elder consistently induces weak contact and manages counts efficiently. Over his last 10 outings, Elder has maintained his steady form with a 3.10 ERA and provided length for the bullpen. He is averaging 6.10 innings per start while keeping his walk rate down to 2.66 per nine innings.

On the other side, Chandler brings a volatile profile into Truist Park. Over his last 10 appearances, his command issues have been glaringly apparent, issuing 5.21 walks per nine innings.

These free passes, combined with an uptick in his ERA to 5.40 over that recent span, have routinely forced early exits. He is averaging just 4.83 innings per start over his last 10 trips to the hill, putting frequent and early pressure on the bullpen.

Pirates vs Braves Stats

When analyzing the season-long metrics in the MLB starting lineups, the statistical disparities between the Braves at home and the Pirates on the road become immediately apparent. Although the Pirates manage a slightly higher output in runs per game away from home, the underlying offensive quality heavily favors the Braves.

The Braves hold a distinct mismatch in the batter’s box, boasting a .255 home batting average and a .721 OPS. This safely clears a .232 average and .677 OPS in road contests for the Pirates. The Braves consistently make better contact, generating an 89.6 mph average exit velocity compared to 88.4 mph for the Pirates.

Pirates vs Braves Picks

• Matt Olson 1+ RBI (+137 at Caesars)
• Bryce Elder Over 4.5 strikeouts (-124 at Caesars)

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If you are looking for the MLB props edge, consider Matt Olson to drive in a run. Leading the Braves with 47 RBIs and 17 home runs, Olson has consistently delivered in run-producing situations. Going up against Chandler, who allows 1.26 home runs per nine innings according to the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, Olson is in a prime spot to capitalize at juicy +137 odds.

I’m also looking to back Elder Over 4.5 strikeouts. Elder has been steady on the mound with 7.67 strikeouts per nine innings, and is fresh off a 6 K performance in a win over the Blue Jays.

Pirates vs Braves Odds

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Pirates vs Braves Splits

Analyzing the MLB public betting data reveals a clear consensus for this National League clash. The public and heavy money are firmly aligned on the home favorites and a high-scoring affair.

The betting action on the moneyline is one-sided in favor of the Braves. A notable 95.1% of the money is backing them to win outright, coming from 84.0% of the betting tickets. The Pirates are receiving very little support, commanding just 4.9% of the handle on 16.0% of the tickets.

Action on the total is heavily tilted toward the Over. Currently, 86.3% of the money is riding on the Over, supported by 87.2% of the tickets. This consensus confirms my prediction to lean toward the Over, anticipating that the potent lineup will take advantage of command issues to push the total high.