UFC Prelims Picks & Predictions – Best Bets for Sacramento Include Gaziev vs Nzechukwu

• The UFC Sacramento Prelims card is chalk full of value from a betting perspective
• Shamil Gaziev offers a sharp moneyline angle against Kennedy Nzechukwu
• Read below for my UFC Sacramento Prelims picks, predictions and best bets including Gaziev vs Nzechukwu

Get ready for a massive night of middleweight action at UFC Sacramento as No. 6 ranked Anthony Hernandez takes on No. 11 ranked Gregory Rodrigues in the main event. The action unfolds tonight at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California, with prelims kicking off at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+.

While the main event draws the public money, my favorite angles to attack actually live on the undercard, specifically targeting mispriced finishing props and grinding grapplers. Whether you want to confidently back a heavy favorite or hunt for massive value with a live underdog, I have you covered.

Let’s dive into my favorite UFC Sacramento Prelims picks, predictions and best bets headlined by Shamil Gaziev vs Kennedy Nzechukwu.

UFC Sacramento Prelims Odds

Odds as of August 21 at BetMGM. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

The two tightest UFC Sacramento prelims odds sit in Padilla vs Haqparast, a true -110 pick’em on both sides, and Gaziev vs Nzechukwu at -133/+110. Those are the only two spots on the early card where the straight moneyline is priced anywhere near a coin flip.

At the other end, Anthony Wint (-1000), Shanelle Dyer (-900) and Marcio Barbosa (-900) are all priced well beyond what I would ever lay outright. The method markets are the only sensible way into those fights.

The distance markets tell the same story. Wint vs Chatman and Barbosa vs Kuse are both -1200 to end inside, while Young vs Dorsainvil at -149 is the one prelim the board actually expects to reach the scorecards.

UFC Sacramento Prelims Predictions

UFC Sacramento Prelims Best Bet: Shamil Gaziev Moneyline

• UFC Sacramento Prelims Pick #1: Shamil Gaziev Moneyline (-133 at BetMGM)

Kennedy Nzechukwu (14-6-1) possesses undeniable fight-ending power. He just separated Lukasz Brzeski from his consciousness with a violent first-round KO/TKO.

If this turns into a pure kickboxing match, Nzechukwu holds the trump card. But Gaziev (14-3) has demonstrated an elite ability to blend striking accuracy with suffocating, heavy grappling.

In his unanimous decision win against Dontale Mayes, Gaziev landed 67.39% of his significant strikes while racking up a dominant 11:58 of control time. Gaziev’s ability to grind opponents out and eliminate their striking windows completely neutralizes Nzechukwu’s one-punch power.

At -133, backing the superior grappler to dictate where the fight takes place is the smartest play on the board. Don’t forget to claim the BetMGM bonus code before making any UFC bet this weekend.

UFC Sacramento Prelims Prediction: Christopher Padilla Moneyline

• UFC Sacramento Prelims Pick #2: Christopher Padilla Moneyline (-110 at BetMGM)

Padilla (17-6-1) has evolved into a potent finisher. He recently stopped Ismael Bonfim via KO/TKO while landing 64 significant strikes at a 58.72% clip.

Beyond his power, he is capable of incredible volume, having landed 147 significant strikes in an absolute war against Marquel Mederos. Nasrat Haqparast (18-6) is a capable volume striker himself, but his durability is a massive red flag right now.

He is trying to bounce back from a devastating first-round KO/TKO loss to Quillan Salkilld. Padilla’s iron chin, combined with his relentless high output and finishing upside, gives him a major statistical advantage.

Grabbing him at a pick’em price is a gift.

UFC Sacramento Prelims Best Bet: Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO

• UFC Sacramento Prelims Pick #3: Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO (+100 at BetMGM)

Dyer (7-1) has been exceptionally precise with her striking, as seen in her recent KO/TKO victory over Ravena Oliveira Morais. In that bout, she connected on 49 significant strikes at a staggering 62.82% success rate.

She is a highly efficient volume striker who overwhelms her opposition early. On the flip side, Elise Reed (8-5) is coming off a brutal KO/TKO loss to Denise Gomes.

Reed struggled to mount any consistent offense in that fight, landing a meager 11 significant strikes before getting finished. With Dyer sitting at an unplayable -900 on the moneyline, laying the outright juice is financial malpractice.

However, getting even money on Dyer to find the chin and end this fight inside the distance is tremendous value. I am backing her offensive efficiency to secure another early stoppage.

UFC Sacramento Prelims Prediction: Jackson McVey Moneyline

• UFC Sacramento Prelims Pick #4: Jackson McVey Moneyline (-180 at BetMGM)

This middleweight clash features two fighters with comparable recent success on the mat, but the underlying metrics paint a clear picture. Wesley Schultz (9-3) recently secured a submission victory, landing a highly respectable 70.59% of his significant strikes in the process.

However, McVey (7-2) is simply more dangerous and urgent in early exchanges. McVey needed just 2:03 of control time to lock up a first-round submission over Sedriques Dumas.

He also landed 21 significant strikes at a 72.41% accuracy rate along the way. McVey’s hyper-efficient striking and immediate submission threat give him a distinct edge.

I am more than happy eating the moderate chalk on a fighter who drags opponents into deep waters this quickly.