Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Odds and Predictions for the Bundesliga
By Miguel Alvim in Soccer News
Published:
- Back Bayern Munich to win by at least two goals at -118
- Bet Under 4.5 total goals at -161 in the Bundesliga opener
- Bet Both Teams to Score No at 36% on Kalshi
The 2026-27 Bundesliga season kicks off with reigning champions Bayern Munich hosting Stuttgart at the Allianz Arena on August 28 at 2:30 p.m. ET. The matchup is a rematch of May’s DFB-Pokal final, which Bayern won 3-0. Bayern will also look to extend their impressive unbeaten streak in Bundesliga season openers to 15 games.
Bayern enter the new season with momentum after beating Borussia Dortmund 2-1 in the German Super Cup on August 22. Nathaniel Brown scored in that victory, while new signing Ismael Saibari could provide another attacking option after recording 26 goals and 19 assists over his last two league seasons with PSV. Bayern’s 2025-26 Bundesliga title defense was dominant, as they finished with 89 points, 16 points ahead of Dortmund, and scored a league-record 122 goals. They scored 68 of those goals at home, although their defense was less dominant, conceding 36 goals in 34 games.
Stuttgart finished fourth last season to qualify for the Champions League and scored 71 Bundesliga goals, the second-highest total in the league. They were particularly productive on the road, scoring 41 goals away from home, but their 6-5-6 away record was less impressive. Stuttgart also won just one of their final seven Bundesliga road games. Sebastian Hoeneß’s team opened the new season with a 4-0 DFB-Pokal win over third-division Hansa Rostock, with Dženan Pejčinović scoring a hat trick. Summer additions including Pejčinović, Bilal El Khannouss and Leo Sauer have strengthened the squad, but facing Bayern in Munich will be a major early test.
Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Odds
Odds as of August 28, 2026, at 8:46 a.m. UTC from BetMGM.
Bayern Munich are heavy favorites at -400 on the moneyline, while Stuttgart are +800 underdogs. The draw is priced at +600, reflecting the sportsbooks’ expectation that Bayern are the most likely team to win this matchup.
After removing the sportsbook’s vig, the implied probabilities are 75.90% for a Bayern win, 13.56% for a draw and 10.54% for a Stuttgart victory. A $10 bet on Stuttgart at +800 would return an $80 profit for a total payout of $90. The same $10 wager on Bayern at -400 would produce just $2.50 in profit.
The spread opened with Bayern at -1.5 (-141) and Stuttgart at +1.5 (+100). While the line has remained at 1.5 goals, the price on Bayern has moved to -172 as bettors have backed the favorites.
The total also opened at 4.5 goals, with the Over priced at +120. The Over has since moved to +115, while the Under has shortened to -161, indicating some movement toward the Under.
For the latest Bundesliga futures odds, visit our Bundesliga odds tracker page.
Bayern Munich and Stuttgart News and Key Matchups
Jamal Musiala is unavailable for Bayern, while Serge Gnabry remains sidelined with a thigh injury. Nathaniel Brown could again play in an advanced role after scoring in the Super Cup, with Harry Kane leading the attack. Stuttgart have several confirmed absences, including Luca Jaquez, Lorenz Assignon, Leo Sauer, Nikolas Nartey, Dennis Seimen, Justin Diehl, Dan-Axel Zagadou and Jeremy Arévalo. Chris Führich and Ramon Hendriks have had fitness concerns, while Jamie Leweling has returned to the squad.
Kane is the key player to watch: he has scored 14 times in eight competitive games against Stuttgart, including three hat tricks. Deniz Undav, by contrast, is still seeking his first goal against Bayern after seven meetings. Stuttgart also enter with a defensive concern, having recorded only one clean sheet in their last 11 competitive matches.
Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Last 10 Clashes
Bayern Munich have won seven of their last 10 meetings with Stuttgart, with one win for Stuttgart and two draws. Bayern have also scored 24 goals across those 10 matchups, while Stuttgart have scored 11.
Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Picks and Predictions
Here are my three favorite betting angles for this Bundesliga opener. Bayern have dominated this matchup in recent meetings, and I’m targeting the handicap, total and Both Teams to Score markets.
The Pick: Bayern Munich -2.0 Handicap (-118 at bet365)
Bayern have won four of their last six meetings with Stuttgart by at least two goals, including victories of 3-0, 4-2, 5-0 and 4-0. That recent dominance makes the -2.0 handicap an appealing option, particularly if Bayern can take control early.
Stuttgart have also struggled to generate offense in this matchup, averaging just 2.83 corner kicks and 8.67 total shots across those meetings. If Bayern establish an early lead, Stuttgart could have difficulty creating enough chances to keep the game close.
With a -2.0 Asian handicap, a Bayern win by exactly two goals results in a push, while a victory by three or more goals wins the bet.
If you’re looking to back the favorites, claim your Bet365 bonus now to bet Bayern at -118. You can also start betting at Caesars now to find similar value on alternative spreads.
The Pick: Under 4.5 Total Goals (56% at Polymarket)
The traditional sportsbooks are expecting a high-scoring game, but a 4.5-goal total is a high number for a Bundesliga season opener. Polymarket gives the Under a 56% probability, making it an appealing option at that price.
The 4.5-goal total has stayed Under in four of the last six meetings between these teams (66.7%). While Bayern have consistently scored against Stuttgart, the visitors have been shut out in two of those six games. That history makes the Under an attractive option, particularly if Stuttgart struggle to contribute on the scoresheet.
The Pick: Both Teams to Score No (36% at Kalshi)
My final play is Both Teams to Score No, fading Stuttgart’s offense. This pick also fits with my Under 4.5 goals prediction. Kalshi gives the “No” outcome a 36% probability.
Stuttgart have struggled to score against Bayern in recent meetings, including a 3-0 loss in the DFB-Pokal final and a 5-0 Bundesliga defeat at home. They have also failed to score in three of their last six head-to-head meetings, giving them a 50% fail-to-score rate in that span.
Bayern should have enough defensive quality to keep Stuttgart off the scoresheet, particularly if they control possession and take an early lead. I expect the hosts to limit Stuttgart’s chances, making Both Teams to Score No an appealing option.
With more than a decade of experience as a writer, editor, and content manager, Miguel has built a career creating engaging sports content for international audiences. He is multilingual journalist with a strong passion for numerous sports, especially soccer.
