2019 Champions League Round of 16 Upset Picks: Real Madrid Out Early?

• With 16 clubs remaining, who’s on upset alert in the Champions League Round of 16?
• Can Atlético Madrid take down one of the tournament’s favorites?
• Currently undefeated in 12 Champion Leagues matches, can Dutch side Ajax pull an upset?

The Champions League Round of 16 draw was held on December 17 and we’re breaking down a couple ties which could see a potential upset.

Be sure to check out our Champions League Odds Tracker to follow the odds of each of the remaining Round of 16 clubs.

Could Atlético Madrid Topple Italy’s Best?

Serie A’s top club Juventus take on Atlético Madrid of Spain. Between a combined 34 domestic league matches, there’s only a single loss between these two this season.

Atlético Madrid vs Juventus Odds

*All odds taken 12/24

Atlético own that lone loss back in September, but are second in La Liga and only three points back of leaders Barcelona. Their 12 goals allowed are also the fewest in La Liga.

300 – @AntoGriezmann has scored his 124 goal in LaLiga just in his 300th appearances in the competition. Milestone. pic.twitter.com/xEfk5j9oFo

— OptaJose (@OptaJose) December 15, 2018

In Champions League Group Stage play, they progressed as the second place team from Group A.

Atlético were even on points with first place Borussia Dortmund but were bumped to second based off goal-differential.

On top of an airtight defense, Diego Simeone’s squad is led up front by star French striker Antoine Griezmann. Griezmann leads Atlético in scoring in both La Liga (7) and Champions League (4).

Atlético Madrid vs Juventus Stats Comparison

Upsetting Juventus and their old nemesis Cristiano Ronaldo from his days in Real Madrid won’t be easy.

Juventus topped Group H and only allowed four goals. That was tied for the second-fewest goals allowed in the Group Stage.

Domestically, their eight goals allowed are also among the fewest on the continent. Of first place clubs in the five major leagues only Liverpool have conceded fewer with seven.

Cristiano Ronaldo vs Atletico Madrid:

👕 29 games
⚽️ 22 goals
🅰️ 8 assists

A rivalry to be renewed. 🔥 #UCL pic.twitter.com/W3zIphKYlX

— GOAL (@goal) December 17, 2018

There’s little recent history between these sides as they haven’t met since Champions League Group Stage play in 2014/15.

There, Atlético won 1-0 in Spain, while the clubs drew 0-0 in Italy.

Juve may be expected to advance, though Ronaldo has been relatively quiet in the Champions League so far with only two goals.

Juventus also showed some weakness with losses in two of their past three Group Stage matches against Manchester United and Swiss side Young Boys.

.@Atleti … 🇪🇸 Always tough games against them, it will be a real challenge, but we can do it! looking forward to it! #UCLDraw @ChampionsLeague @juventusfc

— Sami Khedira (@SamiKhedira) December 17, 2018

Atlético should be able to get a result in the home leg of the series, as since August 2008, they’ve only lost three times in 38 home Champions League matches.

In a draw that should be decided by the slimmest of margins, +170 looks like great value for the Madrid side.

Title Holders Real Madrid Primed For Early Exit?

Madrid have won three-straight Champions League titles but haven’t looked themselves since losing Ronaldo to Juventus this offseason and the deaparture of manager Zinedine Zidane.

Ajax vs Real Madrid Odds

Though they’ve recently won five of six in La Liga, that came after a period of going winless in five and losing four.

Madrid currently sit fourth in Spain and have scored 24 fewer goals than rivals Barcelona.

While Real topped Group G during the Champions League Group Stages, CSKA Moscow became the first club to win home and away to Real Madrid in the Group Stage in 10 years.

CSKA Moscow are the first team to defeat Real Madrid both home and away in the group stages of a Champions League campaign since Juventus in 2008-09.

Not the ideal end to the group stage for Real. 😕 pic.twitter.com/M6IHsOvwZf

— Squawka (@Squawka) December 12, 2018

Check the comparison below and you’ll see Ajax have played significantly more Champions League matches. That’s because they’re the only remaining club who had to progress through the qualifying stages to get to the Group Stage.

Despite those extra matches, Ajax have yet to lose any of their 12 matches in the tournament. Even being drawn alongside German powerhouse Bayern Munich in Group E, Ajax were still in position to win the group on Matchday 6.

The Dutch side drew twice with Bayern—1-1 in Germany and 3-3 in Amsterdam.

Ajax vs Real Madrid Comparison

It will be important to monitor the January transfer window, as it’s reported bids will be made to Ajax for many of their star players.

Assuming their club remains intact, Ajax could be well positioned to pull the upset, as they’ve been tearing through their domestic league.

While no one is comparing the Dutch Eredivisie to the top leagues in Europe, they’ve still scored 60 goals in 17 matches while only allowing eight. Ajax are second in the league and have only one loss on the season.

What a draw @AFCAjax playing against @realmadrid in the next round @ChampionsLeague. Brings back memories to our match in November 1994 when we won 0-2 in Santiago Bernabéu. #UCL #ajarea ❌❌❌ pic.twitter.com/auGKYhM69R

— Edwin van der Sar (@vdsar1970) December 17, 2018

Ajax have a poor historical record against Real, but haven’t played Los Blancos since losing twice in Champions League Group Stages in 2012/13.

It’s a longshot, but Ajax went toe-to-toe with Bayern and just maybe could pull the biggest upset of the Round of 16.