UFC Fight Night Prelims Predictions & Picks: Best Bets Include Nakamura vs Hiestand

• The UFC is back at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas tonight for another Fight Night card
• I’m locked in on the Prelims bouts, looking for value in the method-of-victory props
• Read my expert UFC Fight Night prelims predictions, picks and best bets including Nakamura vs Hiestand, below

The UFC is back in action tonight, with a full card of bouts at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.. The prelims kick off at 5:00 PM ET, leading directly into a massive main event walkout scheduled for approximately 9:20 PM ET.

My favorite targets on the board involves fading low-volume strikers and attacking heavily juiced favorites with specific method-of-victory props. Whether you want to back a heavily hyped prospect or cash in on a live underdog, let’s dive into the odds and my card predictions.

I have combed through the full UFC Fight Night prelims odds to find the most exploitable lines on the early slate. Here are my favorite UFC Fight Night prelims predictions, picks and best bets, including Nakamura vs Hiestand.

UFC Fight Night Prelims Odds

Odds as of fight week at BetMGM. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

The UFC Fight Night prelims odds are top-heavy with chalk. Jauregui at -909, Castaneda at -400, and Nakamura at -385 are the three shortest prices on the early slate, which is exactly why the value sits in the method-of-victory markets rather than the moneyline.

Brener vs Harrell at +105/-125 is the only true pick’em on the prelims, with Bellato vs Edwards odds the next closest. The distance markets tell the same story, with Bryczek vs Vieira priced at -286 to end inside the limit.

UFC Fight Night Prelims Predictions

UFC Fight Night Prelims Pick: Jackson vs Simon Prediction

• UFC Fight Night Prelims Pick #1: Montel Jackson Moneyline (-227 at BetMGM)

These two bantamweights have history, previously meeting back in August 2018 where Simon secured a unanimous decision. However, Jackson has evolved significantly since eating that loss.

Simon still relies heavily on mixing strikes with timely wrestling. He landed two takedowns against Adrian Yanez and secured a massive 9:13 of control time with three takedowns against Cameron Smotherman.

Jackson brings a newly refined striking efficiency that will be the true difference-maker here. In his recent bout against Raoni Barcelos, Jackson landed a highly efficient 69.23% of his total strikes and dropped him once.

I expect Jackson to manage the distance perfectly, defend the takedowns, and avenge his 2018 loss over three rounds. Lock in this line with the BetMGM promo code.

UFC Fight Night Prelims Best Bet: Nakamura vs Hiestand Prediction

• UFC Fight Night Prelims Pick #2: Rinya Nakamura by KO/TKO (+125 at BetMGM)

This matchup represents a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic. Brady Hiestand is absolutely relentless when looking to ground his opponents.

Against Garrett Armfield, Hiestand secured six takedowns on 13 attempts and racked up 5:36 of control time. He mirrored that game plan against Danaa Batgerel with three takedowns and over four minutes of control.

However, Nakamura brings explosive, fight-ending power that poses a severe threat. He recently dispatched Nathan Fletcher by KO/TKO while landing a sharp 63.16% of his significant strikes.

Before that, he floored Toshiomi Kazama with two first-round knockdowns. I am backing Nakamura to intercept a sloppy level change and close the show early.

UFC Fight Night Prelims Long-Shot Pick: Castaneda vs Alateng Prediction

• UFC Fight Night Prelims Pick #3: John Castaneda by KO/TKO (+500 at BetMGM)

Volume is the absolute name of the game for John Castaneda. When diving into his historical metrics, he has proven he can drown opponents in deep waters.

Against Mark Vologdin, Castaneda landed a staggering 135 significant strikes at a 53.36% clip. He matched that suffocating output against Kyung Ho Kang, landing 111 significant strikes with a 62.01% accuracy rate.

Alateng Heili operates at a much lower offensive gear. He managed only 61 significant strikes against Damon Blackshear and a meager 18 against Kleydson Rodrigues.

With Castaneda priced as a massive favorite, I am avoiding the straight moneyline. Instead, I love the massive plus-money value on Castaneda overwhelming Heili and finding a late stoppage.

Jauregui vs Demopoulos Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui by KO/TKO

• UFC Fight Night Prelims Pick #4: Yazmin Jauregui by KO/TKO (+175 at Bet365)

Jauregui enters this matchup with serious momentum and a high-octane striking arsenal. Her hands are incredibly heavy and active.

She poured on 94 significant strikes against Sam Hughes and landed 67 significant strikes alongside two knockdowns in a brutal finish over Istela Nunes.

This spells serious trouble for Vanessa Demopoulos, who historically struggles against high-volume strikers. Demopoulos absorbed 143 significant strikes against Emily Ducote and another 139 against Karolina Kowalkiewicz.

I am bypassing the heavily juiced -909 moneyline and betting on Jauregui to exploit that porous striking defense for a knockout win. Use the Bet365 bonus code to tail this pick.