Next NFL Coach Fired Odds & Prices – Who’s Favored? Who’s the Best Betting Value?
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
Prediction markets excel at measuring panic, but when it comes to the NFL’s next head coach fired market on Kalshi, public sentiment has created glaring discrepancies between contract realities, on-field performance, and actual organizational urgency. While market favorites Dan Quinn and Nick Sirianni absorb heavy trading volume, several dormant longshots carry vastly underpriced termination equity heading into week six.
The table below lists the current next-coach-fired odds/prices for all 32 bench bosses at Kalshi. Under the table, find my analysis of the best and worst value on the board
Next NFL Coach Fired Odds & Prices
Washington’s Dan Quinn is the heavy favorite, trading at 54 cents, which is equal to -117 odds – making him the odds-on favorite.
Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni and Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles are next at 28 cents (+257) and 27 cents (+270), respectively.
The Frontrunners: Public Frustration vs Real Hot Seats
Washington has stumbled to a 1-3-1 start, undone by a defense that ranks 30th in scoring defense while yielding 29.8 points per game (149 total points). With an impending Monday Night Football showdown in Santa Clara against an undefeated 49ers squad that boasts an NFL-best +61 point differential, a blowout loss on national television could push Washington’s ownership group toward the eject button.
In Philadelphia, Nick Sirianni commands the second-highest odds on the board at 28¢. The Eagles have unraveled during an ugly three-game losing skid with a -20 point differential. Philadelphia’s offense ranks 29th in scoring at just 18.4 points per contest, while Jalen Hurts has absorbed 13 sacks and tossed three interceptions.
Given the passionate Philadelphia media market and front-office expectations of an immediate Super Bowl window, Sirianni’s seat is undeniably warm. Yet, general manager Howie Roseman historically avoids mid-season coaching changes while division contention remains salvageable, making Sirianni slightly rich at nearly 30-percent implied probability.
Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles sits right behind Sirianni at 27¢. The Buccaneers are 1-4 with a -12 point differential, having surrendered 17 sacks while failing to establish an offensive rhythm. Bowles operates in a weak NFC South, but another multi-game slide without answers could exhaust the front office’s patience by mid-November.
The True Values: Winless Disasters Priced as Afterthoughts
The most egregious mispricings on Kalshi reside in the basement of the NFL standings, where three 0-5 coaches are trading at pocket-change valuations.
None is more glaring than Jeff Hafley in Miami, currently trading at a microscopic 1¢. The Dolphins represent the NFL’s undisputed basement: an 0-5 straight-up record, a league-worst -62 point differential, and an offense averaging an anemic 14.0 points per game while being outscored 132 to 70. Miami has shown zero competitive life on either side of the ball. When a franchise completely bottoms out with double-digit blowouts by October, ownership groups rarely wait until January to clean house. The only thing Hafley has going for him is that he’s in year one of his tenure and expectations were low to begin with.
Similarly, Robert Saleh in Tennessee is listed at just 6¢ despite an 0-5 start and a -51 point differential. The Titans have scored an NFL-worst 58 points (11.6 points per game) behind sophomore quarterback Cam Ward, whose offense has been held under 14 points in four of five outings. While front offices often hesitate to fire coaches developing high-drafted young quarterbacks mid-season, an inability to generate basic offensive competence frequently accelerates front-office intervention.
Then there is Jim Harbaugh in Los Angeles, priced at 17¢. The Chargers have completely collapsed at 0-5 with a -45 point differential, scoring just 16.8 points per game while Justin Herbert has been picked off seven times and sacked 17 times. Harbaugh’s pedigree and massive contract provide insulation, making his 17¢ price an awkward middle ground: too low if ownership decides an expensive divorce is needed, but too high for a coach with five years of institutional security.
Mid-Tier Vulnerabilities
Kellen Moore in New Orleans sits at 14¢ following a 1-4 start with a -33 point differential, where the Saints have yielded 151 points (30.2 per game, 31st in the NFL). If Tyler Shough continues to absorb league-leading sack totals, Moore could easily become the first domino.
Next NFL Coach Fired: Best Value on the Board
Kalshi’s board overvalues the media noise surrounding Dan Quinn (54¢) and Nick Sirianni (28¢) while dramatically neglecting the actual catastrophic situation in Tennessee.
In mid-season firings, owners act on total non-competitiveness over high-profile mediocrity. Backing Robert Saleh at 6¢ offers unmatched mathematical leverage against an over-priced Quinn line.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
