FINAL Brewers/Dodgers Predictions & Closing Odds (Game 4)
By Jordan Tomiyama in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 4 of the NLCS.
- Take the Under 7.5 runs due to elite pitching and struggling bats
- Keep scrolling to see my final Brewers-Dodgers predictions and latest odds
The Milwaukee Brewers (103-59, 48-33 away) stand on the precipice of their first pennant in over four decades after storming out to a 3-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62, 51-30 home) in the 2026 NLCS. Fresh off silencing Chavez Ravine with three home runs in Wednesday night’s 6-2 Game 3 masterpiece, Pat Murphy’s squad rolls into Thursday night carrying relentless momentum.
For Dave Roberts and the reeling Dodgers, the margin for error is gone, and they must find an immediate spark to stave off winter.
First pitch for NLCS Game 4 is set for Thursday, October 15, at 8:00 p.m. EDT at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, and will be broadcast nationally on FS1.
Despite being pushed to the brink of elimination, Los Angeles enters as a short home favorite (-156), while Milwaukee retains massive appeal as a live road underdog (+132) hunting for the knockout punch.
The Dodgers’ season hinges on high-velocity right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who must work deep and dominate the strike zone to protect an overtaxed bullpen against Milwaukee’s buzzing offensive core.
With first pitch just two hours away, I’ve pinpointed the premier betting angles on the board tonight. Scroll down to lock in my official picks for Game 4.
Brewers vs Dodgers Predictions & Picks
- Moneyline: Brewers (+133 / 43¢ on Kalshi)
- Total: Under 7.5 Runs (+113 / 47¢ on Kalshi)
- Player Prop: Sal Frelick Over 0.5 Hits (-122 / 55% at Novig)
Odds/Prices as of October 15 at 5:00 pm ET from Kalshi and Novig
I see tremendous betting value in backing the road underdog tonight. The Brewers are riding a dominant 6-1 postseason run, generating a .749 OPS and 28 runs across those seven contests. Conversely, the Dodgers have sputtered to a 3-4 postseason mark with a sluggish .188 batting average and just 21 runs scored.
The pitching mismatch is equally stark. Milwaukee boasts a suffocating 1.742 team ERA, significantly outpacing Los Angeles’ 3.393 ERA. Given the Dodgers’ inability to consistently manufacture runs, I am combining a moneyline wager on the underdog with a total play. Unders have hit in 19 of Milwaukee’s last 20 away games (95.0%).
When searching for edges on the player prop board, situational trends provide a clear target. Sal Frelick has eclipsed 0.5 hits in six of his last seven playoff games (85.7%). I am making this my primary focus for props.
For the absolute best odds, I am utilizing the Kalshi prediction market for my moneyline and total plays. Kalshi prices Milwaukee to win at 43¢ (an implied +132 equivalent), edging out standard sportsbooks. Likewise, they offer ‘No’ on Over 7.5 runs at 49¢, yielding plus-money value on the Under.
Closing Odds for Brewers vs Dodgers (Game 4)
Odds /Prices as of October 15 at 5:00 PM ET from BetMGM, Kalshi and Bet365
The betting market heavily favors Los Angeles on the runline. The Dodgers are commanding an overwhelming 82% of the runline handle on 70% of the tickets. This massive liability has pushed the Los Angeles runline payout from +125 at open to +140.
On the moneyline, the public is evenly split, with Los Angeles drawing 56% of the money and 51% of the tickets. When checking MLB public betting splits for the total, 69% of the handle and 70% of the tickets anticipate a high-scoring game. By picking the Under 7.5, I am directly fading the public consensus. The Dodgers’ recent offensive struggles justify taking a contrarian stance against the heavy handle backing the Over.
Shane Drohan vs Tyler Glasnow
Milwaukee is turning to Shane Drohan to start Game 4, opposite Tyler Glasnow. Drohan’s 2026 regular-season line (also listed as his career total) is 7-5 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 124.2 innings. He has 125 strikeouts against 44 walks. Glasnow enters with a 3.53 ERA and a 2.73 FIP across 74.0 innings, while holding opponents to a .175 batting average.
Brewers/Dodgers Weather Forecast for Game 4
- Condition: Sunny
- Temperature: 86°F
- Humidity: 14%
- Wind: 1 mph SW
The warm 86°F temperature in Southern California thins the air slightly, which can aid fly balls. However, a stagnant 1 mph wind and bone-dry 14% humidity will neutralize most of that advantage. These pristine conditions should not drastically alter the run-scoring environment, keeping my confidence high in the Under.
Check SBD’s MLB weather page for any changes.
Jordan has worked in sports media for the last seven years, writing articles, managing social media, and covering sporting events for various media outlets. Jordan's work focuses on NBA, WNBA, college basketball, and the NHL.
