2020 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Odds Tracker
Updated April 30, 2020 | Author: Mitch Robson
- We tracked the average odds to win the 2020 NCAA Men’s Tournament for all major D1 basketball programs.
- On March 12th, 2020, the NCAA Tournament was officially canceled due to global pandemic of the COVID-19 outbreak
- See where top contenders would’ve entered
The 353 schools that start the year with National Championship aspirations were set to be whittled down to 68 spots on Selection Sunday on Mar. 15th, 2020.
Unfortunately, the 2020 Tournament was canceled on March 12th due to the global pandemic and risk of COVID-19 in the United States.
See what the average odds were for the teams about to embark on their journey to try and win a national championship.
2020 NCAAM Favorites
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Data points presented in the graph are the average from the odds at all our trusted sportsbooks, removing the bias each book may have towards a certain team due to incoming money, presenting you with a more accurate look at each team's true odds to win the championship.
- Mar 10: Michigan State is climbing the board. Sparty has improved to +1200 and sits just outside the top five.
- Mar. 5: Obi Toppin and the 28-2 Dayton Flyers are for real. After curb-stomping Rhode Island (84-57, away) they have entered the top-five favorites at +1200.
- Feb. 25: Kansas’ win at Baylor on the weekend has them alone at the top at +650. The Bears remain second at +900, tied with Gonzaga.
- Feb. 19: Despite dropping to No. 11 in the polls, Louisville (+1200) continues to be among the top-five favorites, level with unbeaten #4 San Diego State and ahead of #5 Dayton (+1600).
- Feb. 10: A 30-point beatdown of arch-rival St. Mary’s has moved Gonzaga to +950. But Kansas is still right there with the Bulldogs, as is #1 Baylor.
- Feb. 5: Kansas is rated #1 at KenPom and now sits at the top of the odds as well, tied with Gonzaga at +1000. The Jayhawks are the only team in the country that’s top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
- Jan. 24: Duke and Gonzaga are tied atop the odds at +1000, followed by Louisville and Kansas. The #1-ranked Baylor Bears are finally top-five at +1500.
- Jan. 13: Baylor has entered the top-ten favorites, but still isn’t considered a top-five contender at +1500.
- Jan. 10: Despite taking recent Ls at Kentucky and at home to Florida State, Louisville has taken over top spot in the odds at +900.
- Dec. 27: Louisville (+850), Ohio State (+1000), and Duke (+1100) are the top three heading into the New Year.
- Dec. 11: Ohio State, a perfect 9-0 and rated #1 at KenPom, has become a top-five title contender at +1200.
- Dec. 6: Louisville is the new March Madness title favorite at +750. Duke (+900) and Kansas (+1000) round out the top three.
- Nov. 28: For reasons unknown, Oregon has dropped from +1600 to +2200 over the last week-plus. The Ducks are 4-0 with two top-50 wins, including handing Memphis its only loss so far.
- Nov. 22: Louisville (+1000) has bumped Memphis (+1400) out of the top five.
- Nov. 18: Wiseman’s ineligibility reuling has not hurt Memphis’ title odds; most pundits expect it to be in the 3 to 4-game range.
- Nov. 13: The eligibility questions around James Wiseman have led to Memphis’ title odds dropping, but only slightly, as the team is dead-set on playing him until they’re forced not to.
- Nov. 8: A season-opening loss to Kentucky has not soured oddsmakers on Michigan State, which continues to be favored at +650. Louisville is rising fast (+1400).
- Nov 4: As they tip-off the season tomorrow night against Duke, the cloud of the offseason has faded off of Kansas, as their average odds are now tied for third with Duke and Memphis at +1000.
- Oct. 28: With the season tipping off in eight days, AP preseason #1 Michigan State remains the presumptive favorite, with average odds of +650.
- Sep. 27: The Notice of Allegations delivered to Kansas University has impacted the basketball team’s 2020 National Championship odds. They have fallen from +1000 to +1200, and they are now just outside the top five.
- Aug. 23: Michigan State continues to lead the pack at +650, followed by Kentucky at +750, which edged ahead of Duke (+850) this month.
- Aug. 16: Florida is the latest team to jump into the top-ten (+1600), while Michigan is the latest team to drop out, falling all the way to +2500.
- Aug. 8: Louisville (+1600) has bumped Gonzaga (+2000) out of the top ten.
- July 17: Virginia (+920) and Michigan (+2100) have bounced back a little after suffering big drops earlier this offseason.
- June 28: There has been huge movement all over the board: Michigan dropped from +1600 to +2800; Kansas rose from +1800 to +1200. At least ten more teams rose or fell by equally big margins. See graphs below!.
- June 14: There continues to be a gap between the top-four favorites (Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State, and Virginia) and the next tier or teams, which starts with UNC at +1400. The biggest mover is Memphis, as Penny Hardaway secured the #1 recruiting class in the nation.
- May 30: The odds have not changed today, even though there were clear winners and losers at the deadline to withdraw from the 2019 NBA Draft. Michigan State has edged past Kentucky as the second favorite, on average, while they remain the outright favorite (see table below).
- May 22: Sportsbooks are somewhat split on Michigan after the team hired Juwan Howard to replace John Beilein. They are as short as +1200 and as long as +1800, but remain at +1400 on average.
- May 13: Early NBA draft declarations and the final recruit signings of 2019 have shifted the odds. Duke is now the outright favorite after landing another tremendous recruiting class.
- April 11: Virginia has opened with the third-best odds after winning the school’s first title in 2019. Kentucky is the early betting favorite for 2020, followed by Duke, which is likely to lose Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish.
2020 NCAA Tournament Odds
| Team | Odds to win 2020 March Madness |
|---|---|
| Kansas | +500 |
| Gonzaga | +800 |
| Dayton | +1000 |
| Michigan State | +1000 |
| Baylor | +1200 |
| Duke | +1200 |
| Kentucky | +1400 |
| Florida State | +1600 |
| Louisville | +2000 |
| Maryland | +2000 |
Odds updated Mar. 10, 2020.
The early rounds of March Madness are known for wild upsets, but when it comes down to brass tacks, the favorites tend to come out on top, a fact exemplified by the following trends:
- Eleven of the last twelve champions have been repeat winners.
- Virginia broke a run of 11 straight in 2019 by winning its first National Championship.
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Odds
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Data points presented in the graph are the average from the odds at all our trusted sportsbooks, removing the bias each book may have towards a certain team due to incoming money, presenting you with a more accurate look at each team's true odds to win the championship.
- UNC has won the most national championships among ACC teams (6 titles).
- Duke (5 titles), Louisville (3 titles if you count 2013), and NC State (2 titles) are the only other ACC teams with more than one championship.
- Nine of the current ACC teams have never won a championship.
| ACC Team | National Championships | Year(s) |
|---|---|---|
| UNC | 6 | 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005, 2009, 2017 |
| Duke | 5 | 1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, 2015 |
| Louisville | 3 | 1980, 1986, 2013 |
| NC State | 2 | 1974, 1983 |
| Syracuse | 1 | 2003 |
| Virginia | 1 | 2019 |
| Boston College | 0 | N/A |
| Clemson | 0 | N/A |
| Florida State | 0 | N/A |
| Georgia Tech | 0 | N/A |
| Miami | 0 | N/A |
| Notre Dame | 0 | N/A |
| Pittsburgh | 0 | N/A |
| Virginia Tech | 0 | N/A |
| Wake Forest | 0 | N/A |
Big 12 Conference Odds
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Data points presented in the graph are the average from the odds at all our trusted sportsbooks, removing the bias each book may have towards a certain team due to incoming money, presenting you with a more accurate look at each team's true odds to win the championship.
- Kansas (2008) remains the only Big 12 team to have won a title since the conference was formed in 1994.
- Kansas also has the most all-time titles (3) among current Big 12 teams.
- Oklahoma State (2 titles) is the only other modern Big 12 team that’s won a national championship.
- Only one Big 12 school has never reached the Final Four: TCU.
| Big 12 Team | National Championships | Year(s) | Final Fours (Most Recent) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 3 | 1952, 1988, 2008 | 14 (2018) |
| Oklahoma State | 2 | 1945, 1946 | 6 (2004) |
| Oklahoma | 0 | N/A | 5 (2016) |
| Kansas State | 0 | N/A | 4 (1964) |
| Texas | 0 | N/A | 3 (2003) |
| Baylor | 0 | N/A | 2 (1950) |
| West Virginia | 0 | N/A | 2 (2010) |
| Iowa State | 0 | N/A | 1 (1944) |
| Texas Tech | 0 | N/A | 1 (2019) |
| TCU | 0 | N/A | N/A |
Big East Conference Odds
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Data points presented in the graph are the average from the odds at all our trusted sportsbooks, removing the bias each book may have towards a certain team due to incoming money, presenting you with a more accurate look at each team's true odds to win the championship.
- Three teams in the modern Big East have won a national championship: Villanova (3), Georgetown (1), and Marquette (1).
- Three others have made at least one title game: Butler (2), St. John’s (1), and Seton Hall (1).
- Two Big East teams have never reached the Final Four: Creighton and Xavier.
| Big East Team | National Championships | Best NCAA Tournament Finish (Year) |
|---|---|---|
| Villanova | 3 | Champion (1985, 2016, 2018) |
| Georgetown | 1 | Champion (1984) |
| Marquette | 1 | Champion (1977) |
| Butler | 0 | Runner-up (2010, 2011) |
| Seton Hall | 0 | Runner-up (1989) |
| St. John’s | 0 | Runner-up (1952) |
| DePaul | 0 | Final Four (1943, 1979) |
| Providence | 0 | Final Four (1973, 1987) |
| Creighton | 0 | Elite Eight (1941) |
| Xavier | 0 | Elite Eight (2004, 2008, 2017) |
Big Ten Conference Odds
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Data points presented in the graph are the average from the odds at all our trusted sportsbooks, removing the bias each book may have towards a certain team due to incoming money, presenting you with a more accurate look at each team's true odds to win the championship.
- Indiana (5 titles) and Michigan State (2) are the only Big Ten teams to have claimed more than one national championship.
- Four other Big Ten teams have won one national title: Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin.
- But no Big Ten team has won the title since 2002 (Maryland).
- Despite making the tournament seven times, Nebraska has never even won a game in the NCAA tournament.
| Big Ten Team | National Championships | Best NCAA Tournament Finish (Year) |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 5 | Champion (1940, 1953, 1976, 1981, 1987) |
| Michigan State | 2 | Champion (1979, 2000) |
| Maryland | 1 | Champion (2002) |
| Michigan | 1 | Champion (1989) |
| Ohio State | 1 | Champion (1960) |
| Wisconsin | 1 | Champion (1941) |
| Illinois | 0 | Runner-up (2005) |
| Iowa | 0 | Runner-up (1956) |
| Purdue | 0 | Runner-up (1969) |
| Minnesota | 0 | Final Four (1997) |
| Penn State | 0 | Final Four (1954) |
| Rutgers | 0 | Final Four (1976) |
| Northwestern | 0 | Round of 32 (2017) |
| Nebraska | 0 | Round of 64 (0-7 all-time tournament record) |
Pacific-12 Conference (PAC-12) Odds
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Data points presented in the graph are the average from the odds at all our trusted sportsbooks, removing the bias each book may have towards a certain team due to incoming money, presenting you with a more accurate look at each team's true odds to win the championship.
- Once upon a time, UCLA was the dominant force in college basketball, and their 11 national championships are three more than the next closest team (Kentucky, 8).
- But the mighty Bruins have not won the NCAA tournament in nearly 25 years, dating back to 1995.
- The drought for the Pac-12, as a whole, dates back almost as far, stretching to Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona squad. The conference hasn’t even had a finalist since UCLA in 2006.
- UCLA remains the only Pac-12 school to have won multiple national titles.
| PAC-12 Team | National Championships | Best NCAA Tournament Finish (Year) |
|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 11 | Champion (1964, 1965, 1967-73, 1975, 1995) |
| Arizona | 1 | Champion (1997) |
| California | 1 | Champion (1959) |
| Oregon | 1 | Champion (1939) |
| Stanford | 1 | Champion (1942) |
| Utah | 1 | Champion (1944) |
| Washington State | 0 | Runner-up (1941) |
| Colorado | 0 | Final Four (1942, 1955) |
| Oregon State | 0 | Final Four (1949, 1963) |
| USC | 0 | Final Four (1940, 1954) |
| Washington | 0 | Final Four (1953) |
| Arizona State | 0 | Elite Eight (1961, 1963, 1975) |
Southeast Conference (SEC) Odds
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Data points presented in the graph are the average from the odds at all our trusted sportsbooks, removing the bias each book may have towards a certain team due to incoming money, presenting you with a more accurate look at each team's true odds to win the championship.
- Kentucky has the second-most national championships all-time with eight, but only one since the turn of the century (2012), despite regularly bringing in the top-ranked recruiting class in the nation, including every year from 2008-2013, per 247Sports.com.
- Only three of the 14 current SEC schools have won a national championship. None of the others have even made the title game.
- Ole Miss and Texas A&M have the worst March Madness track record, never advancing past the Sweet 16.
| SEC Team | National Championships | Best NCAA Tournament Finish (Year) |
|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 8 | Champion (1948-49, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1996, 1998, 2012) |
| Florida | 2 | Champion (2006-07) |
| Arkansas | 1 | Champion (1994) |
| Auburn | 0 | Final Four (2019) |
| Georgia | 0 | Final Four (1983) |
| LSU | 0 | Final Four (1953, 1981, 1986, 2006) |
| Mississippi State | 0 | Final Four (1996) |
| South Carolina | 0 | Final Four (2017) |
| Alabama | 0 | Elite Eight (2004) |
| Missouri | 0 | Elite Eight (1944, 1976, 1994, 2002, 2009) |
| Tennessee | 0 | Elite Eight (2010) |
| Vanderbilt | 0 | Elite Eight (1965) |
| Ole Miss | 0 | Sweet 16 (2001) |
| Texas A&M | 0 | Sweet 16 (1951, 1969, 1980, 2007, 2016, 2018) |
Top Mid-Majors Odds
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Data points presented in the graph are the average from the odds at all our trusted sportsbooks, removing the bias each book may have towards a certain team due to incoming money, presenting you with a more accurate look at each team's true odds to win the championship.
Preseason AP Top 10
| ESPN Ranking | Team | Average Odds (Aug. 16) |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Michigan State | +650 |
| #2 | Kentucky | +750 |
| #3 | Kansas | +1000 |
| #4 | Duke | +1600 |
| #5 | Louisville | +1600 |
| #6 | Florida | +1600 |
| #7 | Maryland | +2200 |
| #8 | Gonzaga | +2000 |
| #9 | UNC | +1400 |
| #10 | Villanova | +2000 |
Usually, it’s not wise to go looking too far outside the preseason top-10 when picking a team to win the National Championship. Of the last eight champions, UConn (2014) was the lowest ranked, sitting at #18 in the preseason. Six of the last seven champions have been ranked #6 or higher in the preseason AP Poll.
- 2018-19 Virginia: preseason #5
- 2017-18 Villanova: preseason #6
- 2016-17 UNC: preseason #6
- 2015-16 Villanova: preseason #11
- 2014-15 Duke: preseason #4
- 2013-14 UConn: preseason #18
- 2012-13 Louisville: preseason #2
- 2011-12 Kentucky: preseason #2
