- The Tour de France begins Saturday, Aug. 29th, in Nice
- Defending champion Egan Bernal and Team Jumbo–Visma’s Primoz Roglic are the Yellow Jersey favorites
- Where can bettors find value in this year’s Tour De France?
Originally scheduled to begin in late June, the Tour De France will get going two months later than normal due to COVID-19. This Saturday, Aug. 29th, riders will begin an abnormally climber-friendly course.
Though UK-based Ineos has dominated the event over the last decade, this year, Team Jumbo-Visma is a strong rival. They are led by last year’s Vuelta a España winner Primoz Roglic, who enters Saturday as the Yellow Jersey favorite and will be supported by a strong cast.
Let’s take a look at the odds for the top contenders in the General Classification and consider the best betting options.
2020 Tour de France Yellow Jersey Odds
|Rider||General Classification Odds at BetMGM|
|Primoz Roglic (Jumbo – Visma)||+175|
|Egan Bernal (Ineos)||+275|
|Tom Dumoulin (Jumbo – Visma)||+700|
|Thibaut Pinot (Groupama–FDJ)||+700|
|Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates)||+1400|
|Emanuel Buchmann (Bora–Hansgrohe)||+2000|
|Pavel Sivakov (Ineos)||+2500|
|Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck – Quick-Step)||+3300|
|Daniel Martinez (EF Pro Cycling)||+3300|
|Nairo Quintana (Arkèa-Samsic)||+3300|
|Miguel Angel Lopez (Astana)||+3300|
Odds as of Aug. 24th, 2020.
Team Ineos, formerly Team Sky, has won the race seven of the last eight years. Last year, Egan Bernal emerged as Ineos’ top rider, outdueling teammate and 2018 champ Geraint Thomas, who finished second. While Thomas and four-time champion Chris Froome are both healthy now, Ineos has elected to keep them at home and focus all their attention on supporting Bernal’s quest to repeat.
Roglic’s teammates include 2017 Giro d’Italia winner Tom Dumoulin, who enters the race as the third-favorite, himself.
This year’s Tour de France doesn’t have the normal easing into the three-week trek. Day two features the first mountain stage, and while there are ample sprint-finish opportunities, it is more geared towards climbers than normal.
Interestingly, the only time trial is situated in the penultimate stage, and the individual TT is of the uphill variety. This year’s Tour does not venture outside of France.
The Favorites Represent the Top Teams
Jumbo – Visma and Ineos have the best depth and top-end talent. In fact, it is reasonable to think that Ineos saw the roster Jumbo – Visma was likely to use, and that’s why they left Thomas and Froome behind. The two former champs are viable threats to win the Yellow Jersey, but they aren’t domestiques. Bernal won last year, and all the eggs are in his basket for Ineos again in 2020. That said, if he were to get injured, withdraw, or otherwise not perform well, Pavel Sivakov is capable.
Jumbo – Visma is actually more star studded than Ineos, and though Roglic is their guy to start, Dumoulin is capable of winning. Why are all eyes on the 30-year-old Roglic? The former ski jumper does everything well. He has won stages in all three grand tours and is in terrific form. This year, he has victories in the National Road Race Championships and the Tour de l’Ain.
Last year, Roglic was third in the Giro d’Italia and won the Vuelta a España. He rode in two other major stage races, winning the Tirreno–Adriatico and the Tour de Romandie.
The last time he participated in the Tour de France (2018), he finished fourth.
Any Credible Longshots?
Thibaut Pinot is a reasonable name to consider. He has won stages in each grand tour, and has a podium finish in France back in 2014. He is in good form, and was in fifth place when forced to abandon last year. That said, he has failed to finish his last three tries at the Tour de France.
At a bigger price, why not play the hot hand? Daniel Martinez won the Critérium du Dauphiné in a race that several Tour de France contenders crashed out of. The 24-year-old Colombian has four victories this year and is a stronger contender than his +3300 odds suggest.
Is There a Horse for This Course?
The time trial, at the very end of the race, goes through Pinot’s home town. That means he will know the roads very well if he is in contention. Pinot should also enjoy the numerous climbs, though he is one of the weakest descenders on the tour.
The route will also favor aggressive riders. That is where Julian Alaphilippe was at his best last year. That said, the favorites navigate climbs well, and certainly have shown an ability to take the initiative when needed. While the course does not benefit sprinters, the primary contenders should all have a fair shot.