Champions League Betting – Juventus at Real Madrid

Juventus (+450) at Real Madrid (-150) (Draw +320)

In the first leg of their Champions League semifinal with Juventus, Real Madrid wound up on the wrong end of a 2-1 loss in Turin despite being slight favorites. Tomorrow, Real and their embarrassment of riches will look to turn the tide as they host Juventus at Santiago Bernabeu in the second leg. (2:45 PM Eastern).

While the loss was not ideal for Madrid, Cristiano Ronaldo’s away goal in the first leg allows the team to advance to the finals with a 1-0 win at home. (A 2-1 Real win would send the game to extra time.)

But Real may not be coming into tomorrow’s match a confident squad. The team drew 2-2 at home against Valencia on the weekend, falling four points back of Barcelona in the race for the La Liga title. Nothing went particularly well for the Merengues against Valencia. The team seemed distracted on defense and uninspired on offense, and Ronaldo uncharacteristically missed a penalty kick.

“We are all disappointed with this result,” manager Carlo Ancelotti told ESPN. “But the players still have confidence due to how [the] team played. We gave everything we could. They know that if the play this way again on Wednesday, we can reach the final. We must have a positive attitude, see the good things we did in this game.”

Juventus, meanwhile, drew 1-1 against Cagliari in Serie A action. Juve won’t be as disappointed with that result as Madrid; the “Old Lady” has already secured the Serie A championship and rested players in advance of tomorrow’s crucial Champions League tilt.

While the Italians are obviously happy to have picked up the win on home soil in the first leg, they are also realistic about the possibility of holding Real scoreless in Spain.

“We will need to score a goal because we know that that you can’t go to Madrid and defend such a slender advantage,” Juventus defender Giorgio Chiellini said to Sky Sport. “Our spirits are high and we’ve had a relaxing week, having already won the Scudetto. We’ve prepared well for the match and can’t wait for Wednesday evening.”

Both teams can take confidence from the trends. Real Madrid have won five of their seven home games against Juventus in the European Cup/Champions League; meanwhile, Juventus have reached the final in 70-percent of their Champions League semifinals appearances, according to the UEFA data.

Despite Real Madrid being the clear favorite, they have shown holes on defense all season, and Juventus can hurt them with counterattacks with the likes of Carlos Tevez and Alvaro Morata upfront.

The Italians are also famous for defending well, and finding any space against a well-organized defense could be a challenge for Real. In the end, the draw looks tantalizing.

Pick: Draw +320.

(Photo credit: Ver en vivo En Directo (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)