Arizona State vs Texas Tech Prediction, Early Spread & Total Pick
By Ryan Potts in College Football
Published:
- Texas Tech allows just 91.4 rushing yards per game but gives up 262.2 through the air
- Arizona State arrives in Lubbock as a double-digit road underdog in this early CFB Week 7 spot, but last season they pulled the upset on the Red Raiders
- Read below for my Arizona State vs Texas Tech prediction, early spread and total pick
The Arizona State Sun Devils hit the road to face the No. 10Texas Tech Red Raiders. Kickoff is slated for Saturday, October 17, at 3:30 PM ET on FOX from Galaxy Stadium in Lubbock, Texas.
Texas Tech enters at 5-0 after grinding out a 29-7 road win over Colorado on October 3, then taking a bye. Arizona State sits at 3-2 following a comfortable 30-12 home victory over Hawaii on October 10.
Both squads have five games under their belts, which gives us real data to work with. Let’s dig into the sports betting picks worth making here.
Arizona State vs Texas Tech Prediction
- Arizona State +14.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
I am grabbing the points in this Arizona State vs Texas Tech prediction. The Red Raiders have leaned on run defense and ball control, holding opponents to only 91.4 rushing yards per game across five outings.
Their secondary is a different story. Texas Tech surrenders 262.2 passing yards per contest, and that is the lane Arizona State is built to attack.
Cutter Boley has completed 99 of 158 attempts for 1,229 yards with 12 touchdowns against three interceptions. That is a 62.7% completion rate with a 4-to-1 touchdown to pick ratio, which is exactly the profile you want from an underdog quarterback who has to throw to stay in it.
Reed Harris is the reason that works. He has 34 catches for 590 yards and seven touchdowns, giving Boley a legitimate downfield answer against the one part of the Texas Tech defense that has been exploitable.
Last season, Arizona State delivered Texas Tech’s only regular-season loss on the backs of Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson. Leavitt threw for 319 yards, hitting Tyson 11 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. Boley and Harris will have to be up to the task to shock Texas Tech again.
On the Texas Tech side, Will Hammond has thrown for 1,102 yards and five scores, but he has also thrown five interceptions in five games. That is a meaningful gap in ball security between the two quarterbacks, and it matters when you are laying more than two touchdowns.
With an Arizona State passing attack capable of a late backdoor cover, crossing the critical 14 point threshold is a number I want on my side.
Arizona State vs Texas Tech Early Spread & Odds
Odds from BetMGM Ontario as of October 13, converted to American format.
The early Arizona State vs Texas Tech spread makes the Red Raiders a substantial favorite on the college football odds board. Stripping away the vig, Texas Tech holds an 84.6% implied probability of defending their home turf, leaving Arizona State at 15.4%.
The total at 48.5 is the other number worth noting, and the Under carries the slightly friendlier price at -108. That matters for the play I like in the next section.
Arizona State vs Texas Tech Total Pick
- Under 48.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
The Arizona State vs Texas Tech total is where the stylistic clash pays off. Texas Tech allows just 16.2 points per game, which is the lowest figure either side brings into this one by a wide margin.
Their last outing is the template. The Red Raiders held Colorado to seven points on the road, and they have had two weeks to prepare for this one coming off the bye.
Arizona State’s own result points the same direction. They scored 30 against Hawaii at home, which is right around their season average of 32.6 and Texas Tech has held opponents well below that scoring level.
I expect a grinding, lower scoring Big 12 clash. If Texas Tech takes an early lead and leans on its ground game, the clock does a lot of the work toward keeping this under the number.
A score such as Texas Tech 28, Arizona State 17 or Texas Tech 27, Arizona State 20 would cash both Arizona State +14.5 and under 48.5. Either of those outcomes seems perfectly reasonable.
Team Stats & Matchup Breakdown
The defensive splits are the heart of this Arizona State vs Texas Tech matchup. Texas Tech allows 91.4 rushing yards and 262.2 passing yards per game, while Arizona State allows 136.2 and 211.2, respectively.
That is why I like the points and the Under together. Arizona State should be able to move the ball and stay within range, but doing it through the air on long, methodical drives could keep the total below 48.5.
Texas Tech’s ground attack leans on J’Koby Williams, who has 373 rushing yards and three scores on 63 carries at 5.9 per attempt. He will test an Arizona State front allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game, with Cameron Dickey adding 242 yards and four touchdowns on 57 carries.
Turnovers are the obvious risk to the underdog side. Arizona State is -2 in turnover margin on the season and will need to protect the football to avoid giving Texas Tech short fields. Austin Romaine in particular has had a brilliant season, and both of his interceptions turned into pick-sixes.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
