Heisman Odds After Week 4: Jeremiah Smith Surges, Baugh Joins Race

• Jeremiah Smith is the new Heisman favorite at +250 after a four-touchdown afternoon
• Florida running back Jadan Baugh crashed the board at +1000
• See the full Heisman odds after Week 4 below, plus where the value sits

A receiver just took over the 2026 Heisman Trophy race. Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith went for 12 catches, 217 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois, and the board reshaped itself around him overnight.

Florida running back Jadan Baugh sits fourth, while Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor climbed to third. The two players who shared the lead a week ago, Darian Mensah and Trinidad Chambliss, both drifted.

Here’s where the Heisman odds stand with the leading contenders finished, and which numbers are worth watching into October.

Heisman Odds After Week 4

Jeremiah Smith went from +1000 to +250 in seven days. Those are American moneyline odds, so a $100 bet wins $250 in profit plus your stake back, which works out to a 28.6% implied chance before the book’s margin.

Trinidad Chambliss went the other way, sliding from +325 to +1100 after Ole Miss lost. Arch Manning drifted from +1000 to +2500 even though Texas won.

Odds from BetMGM as of Sept. 27. New customers can grab a BetMGM promo code before betting futures, and you can compare prices across the best College Football betting apps.

Jeremiah Smith Takes Over the Heisman Odds

Smith’s line in the 42-19 win over Illinois was the loudest individual performance of the weekend. He caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns, giving the Buckeyes a dominant receiving threat throughout the afternoon.

To me, Smith is clearly the best player in college football right now. His ability to take over a game makes him my favorite in this race, even with quarterbacks usually getting most of the attention.

Julian Sayin threw for 367 yards with four touchdown passes and ran for another, and his number did not budge at +3000. The market handed the entire afternoon to his receiver.

Jadan Baugh and Kamario Taylor Crash the Party

Jadan Baugh showed up at +1000 as the only running back anywhere near the top of this board. He carried 29 times for 142 yards and three touchdowns in Florida’s 52-28 win over No. 4 Ole Miss, and hit the Heisman pose on the opening drive.

That was his fifth straight 100-yard rushing game, a streak only Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor have matched at Florida. That streak stretches back to last season, and this latest effort came against the nation’s fourth-ranked team.

Kamario Taylor shortened again, this time from +1000 to +600. He went 27-of-38 for 360 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 win over Missouri, including the 24-yard game-winner with under four minutes left, and the Bulldogs are 4-0.

Where the Heisman Value Sits After Week 4

I like Smith’s chances, but +250 leaves much less room for error than last week’s price. Ohio State visits Iowa on October 3, and another big performance would strengthen his case. A quieter afternoon could open the race back up, so I’m not treating him as a runaway winner in September.

Darian Mensah is the odd one out. He threw for 338 yards and three scores and ran for another in a 52-3 win over Central Michigan, without an interception, and his price got longer anyway, from +325 to +450.

Further down, Keelon Russell at +2500 at BetMGM is an interesting price. He went 21-of-27 for 365 yards and four touchdowns, added a rushing score, and Alabama travels to Mississippi State next week for a head-to-head with Taylor.

Manning is the one I’d wait on. Texas is 4-0 and won a ranked road game, but 201 yards with no touchdowns and an interception does not move his individual case forward, and I wouldn’t chase +2500 until the production catches up to the team.