Longhorns’ 2020 Win Total Falls from 9.5 to 8.5, But Heavy Juice on the Over

• Texas saw its win total drop by a full game and it provides an interesting betting option
• Can the Longhorns snap a Big 12 title drought that dates back to 2009?
• See three reasons why betting on Texas to hit the over is a smart move despite the -200 price tag

There’s been a change when it comes to the Texas Longhorns’ 2020 NCAAF win total and it’s worth exploring. Their total fell a full game  from 9.5 to 8.5 and it’s providing a great opportunity, as long as you’re willing to pay the added juice.

Big 12 Win Totals

Odds taken May 18th.

The juice only matters if you pick a loser and, in this instance, there is a strong case to be made for Texas to go over the number. Here are three key reasons why.

Tom Herman Finally Has His Team

College coaches are often judged too soon. Some are fired while still coaching recruits left over from the guy he replaced. This year is Herman’s first with Texas where the entire roster will be players he brought in and that should be good news for fans of the Longhorns.

Herman is a top-tier coach when provided high-end talent, something he proved winning the national championship as offensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2014.

Proud to be Texas Longhorns 🤘 pic.twitter.com/NZIgfBZhOB

— Texas Longhorns (@TexasLonghorns) May 11, 2020

This isn’t a case like Jim Harbaugh in Michigan where Herman has failed to win big games. In fact, he’s the first coach in Texas history to win three bowl games in his first three seasons with the team. I’d take Herman over every coach on the Longhorns schedule except perhaps Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma (yes, I’d take him over Ed Orgeron who is stuck coaching LSU without Joe Burrow this season).

Recruiting Efforts Set To Pay Off

Herman having a full roster of his own recruits is especially important because of the quality of players he has attracted to the program. The Longhorns 5-year average recruiting rank is 10.4, which is tops in the Big 12 and seventh-best in all of college football. The last three years, in particular, Texas ranked third twice and eighth once. It’s a loaded roster full of weapons on both sides of the ball.

CFB royalty 👑 pic.twitter.com/sgBDqoqYvd

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) May 4, 2020

The secondary is an area to watch this season. In 2018, the top-four recruits signed by Texas included three safeties and a cornerback. One has since transitioned to linebacker, but still, Caden Sterns, B.J. Foster, Jalen Green, and DeMarvion Overshown are players that should do a great job getting the ball back in the hands of the Texas offense.

QB Sam Ehlinger Entering 4th Year As Starter

Sam Ehlinger has progressed each season as the starting quarterback at Texas. Last year was his best to date, completing 65.2% of his passes with 32 touchdowns through the air. His 3,663 passing yards may look modest compared to other Heisman Trophy favorites, but I’d expect him to push the 4,000-yard mark in his senior season.

“The ultimate competitor.” – @Call_In_Johnson on @sehlinger3 #ThisIsTexas #HookEm pic.twitter.com/gyzFVxAWzo

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) May 8, 2020

One other key to Ehlinger’s game is his ability to run. He’s smart and sneaky which helps him give Texas another weapon to drive into the end zone in key moments. Over the last two seasons, he’s combined for 23 rushing touchdowns. Last year, he had double digit rushing attempts nine different times, which helped keep opposing defenses honest.

A great coach, a loaded roster, and a four-year starter at quarterback who has proven capable of improving every season. The blueprint is there for Texas to win nine games or more this season. My advice is to bite the bullet on the juice and make the play.

PICK: TEXAS OVER 8.5 WINS (-200)