College Football Picks Today: Best Bets for Week 7 CFB (Oct. 17)
By Blair Johnson in College Football
Published:
- I am breaking down three Week 7 college football matchups with real betting value
- My card is three spread picks, two home favorites and one road underdog
- Read below for the red-zone, third-down and turnover numbers behind my CFB predictions
Week 7 features three conference matchups with betting value: Florida visits No. 7 Texas, Kansas travels to Kansas State for an in-state rivalry, and No. 24 SMU hosts Virginia in Dallas.
Each game pits a productive offense against a specific weakness I think the market has underpriced.
Below are my college football picks today, with the BetMGM spreads and the matchup numbers behind each bet. Find more analysis on our sports betting picks page.
College Football Picks Today
Two of these bets lay points with a home favorite, and the third takes nearly double digits on the road. The juice is not uniform across the card: Texas at -111 is the most expensive of the three, while Virginia at -105 is the cheapest.
Prices from BetMGM. See the BetMGM promo code and compare these games on prediction market apps.
College Football Picks Today #1: Texas -11 vs Florida
- Pick: Texas -11 (-111 at BetMGM)
Texas has the home-field edge and the stronger overall profile in this one. The Longhorns are 4-1 and average 31.4 points per game, having scored on 90.5% of their red-zone trips.
My case for laying this number is the Texas defense. The Longhorns allow just 16.0 points and 264.4 yards per game, which is the profile of a unit that can take a game out of a shootout and keep it in the range where an 11-point spread is live.
Florida’s season numbers look like the counterargument. The Gators average 41.7 points and 473.8 yards per game and have scored on 93.1% of their red-zone trips, but that production has dried up lately, with 17 points against Missouri and 19 against South Carolina in their last two outings.
That recent form is exactly why I like the Florida vs Texas odds here. A defense allowing 16.0 points per game should be able to contain an offense that has not cleared 20 in two straight weeks.
College Football Picks Today #2: Kansas State -3.5 vs Kansas
- Pick: Kansas State -3.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
This rivalry gives Kansas State a manageable spread at home. The Wildcats average 35.6 points per game and have scored on 92.3% of their red-zone trips.
Kansas State also owns a major third-down advantage, converting 61.6% of its attempts compared with 40.6% for Kansas. That ability to sustain drives should be especially valuable at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, where possession and field position tend to decide tight finishes.
Kansas is hardly overmatched, and the Kansas vs Kansas State prediction is competitive despite the home-field edge. The Jayhawks average 33.6 points and 475.6 yards per game while scoring on 90.9% of their red-zone trips.
The gap that moves me is on third down. Kansas State converts at a rate 21 percentage points above Kansas, and combined with the slightly stronger scoring profile and home field, that makes the Wildcats my pick at -3.5.
College Football Picks Today #3: Virginia +9.5 vs SMU
- Pick: Virginia +9.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
SMU is ranked No. 24 nationally and holds a substantial offensive-efficiency edge. The Mustangs average 34.6 points and 479.2 yards per game, and their 51.6% third-down conversion rate is the number that justifies a spread near double digits.
The matchup underneath that is better for Virginia than the number implies. SMU leads the ACC at 341 passing yards per game, but Virginia allows a conference-best 161.8 passing yards per game, so the Mustangs’ best weapon runs directly into the Cavaliers’ best unit.
Ball security is the other edge. Virginia carries a +6 turnover differential with only two giveaways through six games, while SMU sits at -4 with nine giveaways, and that gap in free possessions is how an underdog stays inside a 9.5-point spread.
Those two factors are why I am taking the points on the Virginia vs SMU odds. The Cavaliers do not need to win the game to cash this ticket, they just need to avoid the self-inflicted damage that turns a one-score game into a rout.
Sports Writer
Blair Johnson is a veteran journalist and seasoned sports content creator. He has been writing and producing content as long as he can remember, with such familiar names as CNN, NFL Media and Yahoo. Blair currently lives and works in the greater Los Angeles area.
