Updated Georgia vs Texas Odds & Expert Prediction

• The spread in the Georgia vs Texas game has moved from Longhorns -3.5 to -5 since the start of the week
• The total has risen a point from 56.5 to 57.5
• Check out the updated Georgia vs Texas odds below, plus get our expert prediction

The biggest game on the Week 8 College Football slate goes down Saturday night in Texas. The #1 Longhorns (6-0, 2-0 SEC) host #5 Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC), marking only the second time in program history that Texas has hosted a top-five school while holding the number one ranking.

A game of this magnitude was destined to draw a ton of money in the betting market, and so far the action has been completely one-sided, per the College Football public betting trends.

Updated Georgia vs Texas Odds

Texas opened up as 3.5 favorites in the College Football odds, but that number didn’t last long. The Longhorns were quickly bet up to -5.5, before the number settled at -5. That’s where it currently stands, and some online sportsbooks are reporting they’ve taken six times the amount of money on Texas minus the points than any other spread.

Total-wise, the over/under is up from 56.5 to 57.5, and there’s room for it to climb further. That’s because 58% of the wagers are currently backing the over, accounting for 75% of the total handle.

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Odds as of October 18 at 10:30 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any Week 8 College Football matchup.

Has the Texas Love Gone Too Far?

Tonight will mark the first time in 50 games that the Bulldogs have been underdogs. Based on any ranking or advanced set of metrics you look at, it appears justified. However, it’s safe to question if the Longhorns love has gone too far.

For starters, Georgia will be the first top-50 offense Texas has faced. Yes, the Longhorns have handled everyone on their schedule, and are yielding only 6.3 points per game, but let’s see how they handle a top-six offense before we crown them the favorites in the College Football Playoff odds.

This one is going to be BIG 😤

We'll see you in Austin for Georgia-Texas‼️ pic.twitter.com/CCcG9EfeEu

— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) October 12, 2024

The Bulldogs have been frustrating at times on offense this season, but they have shown a sky-high ceiling. They’ve scored 31+ points in three straight SEC contests, and hung 34 points on Alabama’s top-20 defense, including 27 in the second half. Carson Beck is still a top-six contender in the Heisman Trophy odds, and has loads of experience in huge games such as this one.

If you are buying the Longhorns hype, and are willing to back them at this inflated number, it’s likely due to their offense. Texas has been borderline unstoppable to this point. They’re averaging 43 points and nearly 500 yards per game. They have a three-headed monster in the backfield, a versatile receiver room, and a future Sunday star at QB in Quinn Ewers. The junior pivot returned last week, following a two-game absence, and helped the Longhorns crush rival Oklahoma 35-3.

What’s also working in Texas bettors’ favor is an underwhelming Georgia defense. The Bulldogs have been gashed both in the air and on the ground in recent SEC play, and grade out uncharacteristically poor for a Kirby Smart unit.

Georgia Defense Last Three Games

Georgia is 72nd in yards allowed per drop back, and middle of the pack in pass defense success rate. They’re getting little pressure despite blitzing more, and their secondary ranks 90th in havoc rate, which takes into account passes defended, fumbles forced and tackles for loss. Speaking of tackling, that’s an area where the Bulldogs need to improve. They’ve had 7% of their tackle attempts broken this season, leading to numerous big plays.

Georgia vs Texas Prediction

Despite the perceived advantages the Longhorns hold, there’s simply no value betting them at -5. You’re paying an unwarranted tax of at least a point (if not more), and we’ve already seen some Bulldogs buy back. Once the line got to +5.5 sharp, money immediately pounced, knocking the number down. Even though, everywhere you look, the public is touting Texas, the line is holding steady. That suggests the books are taking a position on Georgia, and are comfortable taking on more Longhorns action.

It’s rarely a bad thing to be on the same side as the books, and the trends also support backing the Bulldogs. Georgia is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as underdogs, with four outright wins. They’re also 6-3 against the spread versus top-5 competition since 2021, the best record of any program with a minimum sample size of five games.

Texas meanwhile, is 1-7 ATS  as a favorite versus top-5 opponents since the FBS/FCS split. They’ve also failed to cover six straight times against top-5 teams, which is the longest active losing streak in the FBS.

• Pick: Georgia +5 (-110)