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Alabama vs Tennessee Prediction & Updated Odds – CFB Week 8

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in College Football

Updated: October 19, 2024 at 1:15 pm EDT

Published:


Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe throws a pass
Oct 12, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) throws a pass during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Butch Dill-Imagn Images
  • The latest Alabama vs Tennessee odds favor the Crimson Tide
  • Our Bama vs Tennessee prediction is siding with the favorite
  • Read below for Alabama vs Tennessee prediction and updated odds

The Third Saturday in October rivalry is set to light up Neyland Stadium as No. 7 Alabama (5-1) faces No. 11 Tennessee (5-1) in a key SEC matchup. Both teams come into this showdown with the same record and plenty to prove after recent setbacks.

The Alabama vs Tennessee odds have been shifting in favor of Kalen DeBoer’s squad, with the Tide now favored by a field goal. Kickoff for Bama vs Tennessee is 12:30 pm ET on Saturday, with ABC carrying the broadcast.

Here is our Alabama vs Tennessee prediction, along with a look at the latest SEC betting odds.

Alabama vs Tennessee Prediction

Alabama’s offense, led by the unpredictable Jalen Milroe, has been up and down this season. Milroe can hurt defenses with his arm and legs, but he’s been a mixed bag for the Tide. He’s piled up 1,617 total yards and 16 touchdowns, but he’s also thrown seven picks.

Freshman receiver Ryan Williams (28 catches, 476 yards, 5 TDs) has given Alabama a big-play threat, but this offense still struggles to find its rhythm at times.

Tennessee’s offense has hit a wall since starting SEC play. Freshman QB Nico Iamaleava hasn’t topped 200 passing yards in a conference game yet, and he’s thrown just one TD in three SEC matchups. The Vols will probably rely heavily on their ground game, led by Dylan Sampson, who’s been a touchdown machine with 15 scores this year.

On defense, Tennessee has been tough, ranking second in the country in opponent EPA/play. This unit could give Milroe and the Alabama offense fits, especially early on. Alabama’s defense isn’t as dominant as in years past, but they can still make game-changing plays, especially when it comes to forcing turnovers.

Recent history favors Alabama, who have covered the spread in two of their last three games against Tennessee. The Crimson Tide have also covered in eight of their last 14 games overall, good for a 9% ROI. This trend, plus Kalen DeBoer’s knack for making key adjustments during games, makes me think they could pull away late.

The line has moved from Alabama -1.5 to -3, hinting that sharp bettors see value in the Tide. The rowdy Knoxville crowd could give Tennessee an early boost, but Milroe’s playmaking and Alabama’s opportunistic defense should be the difference in the end.

  • Pick: Alabama -3 (-110)
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Updated Alabama vs Tennessee Odds

As kickoff nears, the betting lines have settled with Alabama favored by 3 points and the over/under at 56.5 points. The moneyline odds are Alabama -150 and Tennessee +125, giving the Crimson Tide about a 61% chance to win and the Volunteers a 44% shot.

The line moving from Alabama -1.5 to -3 suggests sharp money has come in on the Tide. This shift shows that pro bettors like Alabama to cover, even though they’ve been up and down lately.

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Alabama -3 (-110) -150 Over 57.5 (-110)
Tennessee +3 (-110) +125 Under 57.5 (-120)

Both teams can light up the scoreboard. Alabama’s games have gone over the total in five out of six this season, while Tennessee’s have been split with three overs and three unders. The 56.5-point total shows oddsmakers expect plenty of scoring, which fits with recent games in this rivalry.

The betting public is all over Alabama, with all the bets and money backing the Crimson Tide. This heavy support could be pushing the line up and might create some value for those thinking about taking Tennessee.

The over/under of 56.5 points is interesting given Tennessee’s strong defense and Alabama’s explosive offense. While the Vols’ D is tough, Alabama’s big-play ability could lead to quick scores that push this game over the total.

 

Odds as of October 18, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM bonus code to bet on Bama vs Tennessee.

Alabama vs Tennessee Head to Head

Alabama has owned this rivalry lately, 16 of the past 17 meetings. They’ve also covered the spread twice in the past three affairs.

Last year in Tuscaloosa, Alabama rallied from a 20-7 halftime hole to win 34-20. This comeback showed the Tide’s grit and ability to make key halftime tweaks, which could be crucial in this year’s game.

YouTube video

The 2022 matchup in Knoxville was an instant classic. Tennessee pulled out a wild 52-49 win that ended with fans tearing down the goalposts. This game snapped Alabama’s 15-game winning streak in the series and breathed new life into the rivalry.

All three recent matchups have gone over the total, hinting at high-scoring affairs when these teams meet. Tennessee has been outscored by 39 points in their last three games against Alabama, showing the Tide’s overall dominance even as the Vols have improved.

 

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Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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