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The Irishman Listed as the Favorite to Win 2020 Oscar for Best Picture in Updated Odds

Martin Scorsese at Press Conference
Martin Scorsese's The Irishman the favorite to win Best Picture at the 2020 Academy Awards. Photo by D@LY3D [Flickr] [CC License].
  • The odds in the 2020 Oscar Best Picture race have changed dramatically
  • Now that critics have seen Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, the Best Picture odds are in his favor
  • Does The Irishman have everything it takes to win Best Picture in 2020?

Film fans are in for a real treat with the upcoming release of Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. The Netflix-produced film is set to be one of the biggest film events of the year. But does it have the chops to win Scorsese an Oscar for Best Picture?

This year’s Oscar race is one of the most interesting in years given such a wide variety of films. We have comic book fare (Joker), remakes of classics (Greta Gerwig’s Little Women), and blockbusters all in the mix.  Throw them in a blender and tell them only one can survive and then what happens?

The race for Best Picture is well under way. The category is filled to the brim with amazing films of all types. The opening Oscar odds showed a different favorite before The Irishman premiered to critics. But now this race is even more intriguing.

Who Will Win the 2020 Academy Award for Best Picture?

Film Odds at Bookmaker
The Irishman +200
Marriage Story +525
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood +525
Joker +550
Jojo Rabbit +800
1917 +1100
Field (Any other film) +1200
Little Women +1800
Parasite +1800
Waves +3300
Just Mercy +4000
The Lighthouse +4000
Ford vs Ferrari +2200
A Beautiful Day in The Neighborhood +2400
The Two Popes +3200
The Farewell +3500
The Report +4500
Rocketman +7000
Avengers: Endgame +8000
The Laundromat +10000
Downton Abbey +10000
Ad Astra +10000

Odds taken Oct. 25.

The Golden Gamut

The Irishman opened in its Los Angeles this week to rave reviews and earned an early 99% on Rotten Tomatoes. Even for Martin Scorsese, this is a huge accomplishment.

This is a film for film lovers, and the its  score definitely reflects that. Given the Academy’s love for epics, The Irishman, which clocks in at 209 minutes, is on track for success.

People are going to love this film. All the pieces add up to an impressive lump sum. You have Robert DeNiro, the crime thriller genre, and (at last) a viable streaming film that is slated to be better quality than most of what’s premiered on the big screen all year. It’s a no brainer that The Irishman is going to be a contemporary classic.

Scorsese’s Oscar history is surprisingly not coated in gold. After years of being snubbed and overlooked, it’s only in recent years that he has succeeded at awards shows. The Oscars has a long history of awarding the ‘wrong’ nominee and trying to make up for it in subsequent years.

Given The Irishman‘s hugely impressive early success, it’s quite likely to see Scorsese carry this glory through awards season and clean up in multiple categories.

Creating Movement

When the opening odds for Best Picture were revealed, Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was the favorite to win Best Picture. Sorry, Quentin, that’s just not the case anymore.

Not only has The Irishman moved ahead into first place, but now Hollywood is sharing a distant second place with Marriage Story. Once again, Tarantino faces the tragic Academy kiss of death by rolling out a film the same year as a massive competitor. Whoops.

Marriage Story has picked up major traction ahead of its November 6 release. The Noah Baumbach-directed drama boasts an all-star ensemble cast, a touchy theme (divorce), and a strong film festival track record.

Similarly, Jojo Rabbit has now increased odds of scooping out a win. Early on, this Taika Waititi black comedy seemed unlikely to perform well. A lot of Internet buzz and rave critical impressions have increased Jojo Rabbit‘s chances, though.

In fact, there are plenty of other contenders that would make worthy challengers for the leads in this category too. And some, of course, who don’t stand a chance. Sorry, Downton Abbey, it’s just not looking good for you.

Despite early odds looking lukewarm for Ad Astra, the film is now one of the longest shots in the category altogether. The Brad Pitt vehicle wasn’t as much of a hit in theatres as the studios hoped, and now it seems almost out of the running for an Oscar.

Pick: The Irishman (+200)

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