Political Odds: Will FBI Probe Influence Impeachment Odds?
President Donald Trump broke with tradition on Monday and turned down the chance to throw the opening pitch at the Washington Nationals’ season opener. But if he had turned up, he would have seen a large banner sprawled out in the stands, reading “Impeach Trump”.
It’s no secret Trump is pretty unpopular at the moment. He’s currently polling in the high 30s and there have been calls for his impeachment since the day he took office.
But just how likely is it for Trump to be impeached?
The last time I covered his impeachment odds, the Trump presidency was only a couple of days old and calling for his impeachment was merely wishful thinking. But now, 70 days later, it’s seeming more and more plausible (though it still requires a lot of wishful thinking).
Back then, the only real grounds for impeachment was Trump’s breach of the Emoluments Clause, an obscure provision in the Constitution that forbids any person holding office to accept “any present, emolument, office, or title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State”.
Since foreign government officials were staying at Trump-affiliated hotels, President Trump’s critics argued he was receiving payment from a foreign state and is therefore violating the Emoluments Clause.
Even if that’s true, it’s not really grounds for impeachment. But in the last few weeks new information has surfaced, and it has the potential to completely derail the Trump administration.
On March 20th, FBI Director James Comey confirmed the Bureau is currently investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.
If it turns out that the Trump campaign or the current administration colluded with a foreign state to influence the election, then there’s a good chance the Republican-controlled Congress will move to impeach him.
But for now, there are far more questions than answers. Bettors have been eagerly predicting an impeachment since the inauguration but they may be getting a little ahead of themselves. No President has ever been removed from office by way of impeachment: both Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached by the House of Representatives, but were acquitted by the Senate, and Richard Nixon resigned before he could be impeached.
Will Trump be the first? Here are the odds!
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds
Odds Trump is impeached in 2017: 79/21
Odds Trump is impeached before his first term ends: 3/1
Odds Trump resigns before the end of his first term: 7/3
Odds Trump is elected for a second term: 13/7
Don Aguero is a man of many talents, writing about nearly anything you can put odds to. Don has been writing for SportsBettingDime since 2015, covering sports, entertainment and politics. You name it, he's covered it! He is also a steadfast West Ham fan, and has learned to embrace that suffering.
