2021 Northern Trust 4th Round Odds, Preview and Picks

• Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith are tied for the lead after 54-holes at the Northern Trust
• The Final Round won’t be played until Monday, due to Tropical Storm Henri
• See updated Final Round odds and analysis below, plus a few bets to target

Moving day at the Northern Trust produced plenty of brilliant rounds, but none better than Cameron Smith’s. The Aussie carded 11 birdies en route to a course record 60, narrowly missing a 12-footer on the final hole to join the 59 club.

Smith joins 1st and 2nd Round leader Jon Rahm atop the leaderboard heading into the Final Round, which will take place Monday. Tropical Storm Henri is threatening havoc on Jersey City, New Jersey on Sunday, and as a result the tournament organizers elected to push the Final Round back until Monday, instead of having golfers play 36 holes on Saturday.

The Northern Trust Live Odds

Odds as of August 21st at FanDuel.

Rahm and Smith are one shot clear of Erik van Rooyen, and two ahead of Justin Thomas and Tony Finau. Rahm has put on a ball striking clinic through three rounds, and if not for a COVID induced withdrawal after 54 holes at the Memorial, he would be starting down his third consecutive win on American Soil.

Top of the Board

The U.S. Open champion entered this week as the favorite to take home the title and he hasn’t disappointed. He ranks second in strokes gained ball striking and tee-to-green, while checking in at number five on approach and off the tee. His lone mistake on Saturday came at the Par 5 13th, when his second shot found the water leading to a double-bogey.

He’s carded 19 birdies already through three rounds, and is chasing his second playoff victory in his past three playoff starts. Rahm won the BMW Championship (next week’s tournament) in 2020, and followed that result up with a fourth place finish at the Tour Championship. A win this week would vault him to the top of the FedExCup standings, and put him in the driver seat to claim the $15 million dollar prize.

Fly it over the flag, reel it in. 🎣@JonRahmPGA grabs a share of the lead in style. pic.twitter.com/IcSSJMBFH1

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 21, 2021

Smith meanwhile, was unstoppable on Saturday, racking up nine birdies in a 12 hole stretch at one point, and leading the field in ball striking and tee-to-green for the day. Only one of his three PGA Tour titles came in an individual event (Sony Open 2020), but he’s proven he belongs with the big boys in premier events before. Smith finished fifth two weeks ago at the WGC-St. Jude, and runner-up at the 2020 Masters.

The lowest round of his life. 6⃣0⃣

This is Cameron Smith's first 54-hole lead/co-lead of his TOUR career in an individual stroke-play event. pic.twitter.com/60EPR1eIA7

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 22, 2021

He’ll need another scorching hot round to hold off Rahm and the world class players behind him, but he’s more than capable of doing so. Smith’s Third Round 60 was no fluke as he ranks 12th in scoring over the past 50 rounds, ahead of super elites like Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, and Hideki Matsuyama to name a few.

If forced to chose between the co-leaders, I’m going with Rahm. He’s the world No. 1, and one of the best closers in the game. However, don’t count out the guys a bit further down the odds board.

The Northern Trust Live Value Picks

1. Justin Thomas (+750): My biggest pre-tournament position is knocking on the door. He ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained ball striking and approach, and if not for an ugly double-bogey Saturday on hole 14, he’d be tied for the lead. Despite the blemish, he birdied five of his final nine holes, and appears to have finally solved his putting woes.
2. Shane Lowry (+2700): Lowry leads the field in strokes gained approach this week and ranks third in tee-to-green play. The 2019 British Open champ played exceptionally well on Saturday, carding eight birdies and an eagle en route to a blistering 62.