2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds and Picks

• The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, outside of Orlando, FL tees off Thursday, March 4th
• Rory McIlroy is the +850 favorite to win over Viktor Hovland
• We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

After Collin Morikawa put on a ball striking clinic to win the WGC-Workday Championship at the Concession, the Tour heads two hours down the road to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Nine of the top twenty golfers in the world are competing, led by 2018 champion Rory McIlroy and defending champ Tyrrell Hatton.

International flair has been the key to success in recent years at Bay Hill, with the last five champions not from the United States, as Matt Every and his back-to-back titles in 2014 and 2015 were the last time an American to won this event. This tournament has elite status, with the winner earning a three year exemption as opposed to the typical two offered regularly.

After nailing Max Homa to win at Riviera two weeks ago as a +6000 sleeper and Collin Morikawa last weekend at the WGC-Workday Championship at +4500 odds, we attempt to make it a trio of winning picks this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

Odds taken March 3rd from FanDuel

Viktor Hovland Has Been on a Tear

Of all the top names on the board this week, Viktor Hovland is the golfer currently playing the best. He has a win under his belt this season at the Mayakoba Classic, and in his last three tournaments he’s been in contention, racking up a pair of runner-ups and a T-5 finish. He was also first in strokes gained off the tee at Riviera and then second in that category at the WGC-Workday Championship.

Last 7 worldwide starts for Viktor Hovland:

1st
T3
T31
T2
T6
T5
T2

💪 😁 pic.twitter.com/dNUAGcOqxF

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 1, 2021

While he wasn’t able to clip Collin Morikawa at the WGC-Workday Championship, he put up a valiant effort on Sunday with a closing round of 67, highlighted by this ridiculous up-and-down for birdie on the 13th hole.

NO WORDS. 😱

This up and down by Viktor Hovland has us speechless. pic.twitter.com/8Atn34kXjZ

— WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession (@WGCWorkday) February 28, 2021

Hovland’s +1200 odds aren’t too bad either, though his past history at this track might give a bit of pause for bettors, as he’s finished T-40 and T-42 in his two previous attempts to win Arnie’s tournament. He was a different player back then getting his feet wet on tour, so there doesn’t need to be too much stock put into those results.

Last Five Arnold Palmer Invitational Winners

Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Value Picks

1. Francesco Molinari (+3100): The winner here just two years ago has regained his form after playing zero events in the 2019-20 season once COVID-19 hit. Molinari has posted top-10’s in three of his last four tournaments, and four top-10’s all time at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
2. Marc Leishman (+4600): Marc Leishman feasts on this golf course, winning in 2017, finishing runner-up last year, T-3 in 2011 and T-7 in 2018. After a brutal stretch following the Tour stoppage last year, he’s found his game again, with a T-4 at the Sony Open his best result in 2021.
3. Henrik Stenson (+15000): Big long shot with boom potential, despite not doing much in 2021. Henrik Stenson loves this track and has done everything but win here, finishing runner-up in 2015, T-3 in 2016, fourth in 2018, T-5 in 2014 and T-8 in 2013. For a player of his caliber and talent, these odds are super enticing.