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2021 WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession Odds and Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Feb 22, 2021 · 6:11 AM PST

DeChambeau hits approach shot
Bryson DeChambeau tees off on the fourth hole during the second round of the Genesis Invitational golf tournament at Riviera Country Club, Friday, Feb. 19, 2021, in the Pacific Palisades area of Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ryan Kang)
  • The WGC-Workday Championship at Concession tees off Thursday, February 25th
  • Dustin Johnson is the +500 favorite to win over Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

After a thrilling Genesis Invitational in which Max Homa defeated Tony Finau in a two-hole playoff, the world’s best head to Bradenton, Florida for the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession. Usually this tournament is held in Mexico, but with COVID-19 protocols in place, the Tour opted to not go to Club de Golf Chapultepec in lieu of starting a four-week swing through the Sunshine State.

Dustin Johnson, who was in contention Sunday at Riviera before settling for a T-8 result, headlines the stacked field that has 48 of the top 50 golfers in the world competing. Paul Casey and Tiger Woods are the pair not teeing it up.

This tournament has an exclusive 72-man field compared to the usual 156 and there’s no cut this week. This golf course hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event before, but Bryson DeChambeau won at this track in the 2015 NCAA Championship. We nailed Homa as a potential great value pick to win outright last week and we’ll attempt to make it back-to-back this go around.

2021 WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession Odds

Golfer Odds
Dustin Johnson +600
Jon Rahm +850
Xander Schauffele +1200
Patrick Cantlay +1600
Rory McIlroy +1650
Tony Finau +1800
Justin Thomas +1800
Bryson DeChambeau +2000
Daniel Berger +2200
Viktor Hovland +2200
Tyrrell Hatton +2500
Webb Simpson +2500
Brooks Koepka +2600
Patrick Reed +3000
Joaquin Niemann +3500
Sungjae Im +4000
Collin Morikawa +4500
Scottie Scheffler +4500
Harris English +5500
Matthew Fitzpatrick +5500

Odds taken February 24th from DraftKings

DeChambeau Has Won on This Course

Finding value is inherently possible this week due to the loaded field and Bryson DeChambeau falls perfectly into that category. With this course relatively unfamiliar for most pros, why not select a player that’s won on it, albeit at the collegiate level?

Last week the ‘Mad Scientist’ uncharacteristically didn’t play the weekend for the first time in his last eight events, but he had respectable T-7 and T-18 showings in 2021 prior to that.

The bad first round at Riviera notwithstanding, DeChambeau is still first in strokes gained off-the-tee and SG: tee-to-green this season, as well as second in total strokes gained. Don’t read too much into that poor first day because he battled back with a solid round in the 60’s after that. His +1850 odds to win outright are intriguing given his past success at the Concession Golf Club.

Last Five WGC-Workday Championship at the Concession Winners

Year Winner
2020 Patrick Reed (-18) one shot win
2019 Dustin Johnson (-21) five shot win
2018 Phil Mickelson (-16) playoff over Justin Thomas
2017 Dustin Johnson (-14) one shot win
2016 Adam Scott (-12) one shot win

*All victories did not occur at the Concession Golf Club

WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession Best Value Picks

  1. Joaquin Niemann (+3500): Prior to Riviera had finished second in back-to-back weeks early in 2021 in both Hawaii events. Was in contention entering Saturday at the Genesis Invitational before a shocking 78 saw him tumbling down the board, but he’s been around for the weekend in eleven straight and has posted four top ten’s in that span. 28 of 32 rounds this season have been 70 or better (fourth in scoring average).
  2. Collin Morikawa (+4500): Had a so-so event last week, but his two previous tournaments in 2021 resulted in T-7 results. Third in strokes gained approaching the green and sixth tee-to-green – at these odds, the 2020 PGA champion is an auto bet.
  3. Cameron Smith (+6000): Can blow hot and cold but he’s coming off a fourth place showing at Riviera, his third top five finish of the season (second at the Masters, T-4 at ZOZO). Performs better in bigger tournaments, which bodes well in this WGC field against a compressed field.
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