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2021 Valspar Championship 4th Round Odds, Picks and Preview

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

May 1, 2021 · 4:41 PM PDT

Max Homa holding golf ball
Max Homa holds up his ball to the gallery after sinking a birdie putt on the second green during the third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament Saturday, March 6, 2021, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
  • Keegan Bradley and Sam Burns are co-leaders by one shot heading into the final round of the 2021 Valspar Championship
  • Just eight golfers are within five strokes of the lead in a separated board
  • See the updated odds at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook below for Sunday’s final round within the story below

Early in the round Saturday, it looked like Sam Burns and Keegan Bradley could run away from the field and make it a two-man race. Burns was four-under-par through five holes and Bradley birdied two of the first five holes himself. They spun their wheels on the back nine, however, allowing some players back into the 2021 Valspar Championship.

Before the tournament began, both of the co-leaders faced +7000 longer odds to lift the trophy come Sunday, but Burns is in position to nab his first career PGA Tour title and Bradley his fifth. Max Homa is one shot behind the duo, and he’s looking to join Bryson DeChambeau and Stewart Cink as the trio of players to have multiple victories on tour this season.

Updated 2021 Valspar Championship Odds

Golfer Position Score Odds at FanDuel
Keegan Bradley T-1st -14 +200
Sam Burns T-1st -14 +250
Max Homa 3rd -13 +250
Joaquin Niemann T-4th -10 +2000
Abraham Ancer T-4th -10 +2000
Cameron Tringale T-4th -10 +2700
Charley Hoffman 8th -9 +4100
Ted Potter Jr. T-4th -10 +10000
Viktor Hovland T-12th -7 +15000
Bubba Watson T-9th -8 +21000

Odds as of May 1st at 7pm ET

The course is playing much easier than normal, as six of the last seven champions haven’t been better than 10-under-par. As is the case virtually every year for the Valspar Championship, it’s a tight battle to the end with 11 of the last 13 winners taking home the title either in a playoff or by one shot.

Homa Poised For Second Win This Season

Selecting between any of the three players on the board is pretty well picking your poison, because they’ve all done plenty of things well this week to get in position to win. However, with Sam Burns having never won before and Bradley ranked T-115th in final round scoring and only winning once since 2012, I’d rather ride with the hotter hand in Max Homa.

Homa won earlier this season at famed Riviera for the Northern Trust title, and he’s first in birdies for the week. The social media maven also is first in putts per green in regulation. He’s fifth in SG: tee-to-green through three rounds, and tied for the second best round on Saturday, shooting a 5-under, 66. There’s no clear and obvious player to choose, but Homa is a solid +250 bet since he can post a number and wait for the final group to have to survive ‘the snake pit’ on the final three holes.

Best Live Value Picks for the Valspar Championship

  1. Joaquin Niemann (+2000): The ultra talented 22-year-old Chilean Joaquin Niemann will begin Sunday four shots back and he has serious firepower. He’s fifth in birdie average, sixth in driving distance and eighth in greens in regulation this season. He’s only made one bogey in the last two rounds and is third in scrambling for the championship. He’s 18th in final round scoring average on the campaign and he’s had a pair of runner-ups this year.
  2. Ted Potter Jr. (+10000): These are ludicrous odds for a player who is just four strokes back, especially after he had the best round by three shots of anyone on Saturday. He’s very much an all or nothing player in the mold of Jim Herman. Potter has won twice (2012 Greenbrier & 2018 Pebble Beach Pro-Am), with just six other top-10’s in his PGA Tour career, which is why his odds are so long. First in strokes gained putting through three days, as he gained nearly eight shots on the field Saturday.

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