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Best Longshot Bets and Sleeper Picks for the 2020 PGA Tour 3M Open

Keith Mitchell swinging
Keith Mitchell has had success on Arnold Palmer designed courses in the past - will it continue at the 3M? Photo from @GolfWeek (Twitter)
  • A lot of sleepers and long shots pose great value at this week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota
  • Will Gordon and Keith Mitchell are two golfers who could surprise and be atop the leaderboard
  • Read below to find out which golfers possess the best value this week at the second edition of the 3M Open

The PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities from July 23rd-26th. After back-to-back weeks at Muirfield Village in Ohio, the players will get a change of pace at an Arnold Palmer designed course.

A unique field this week in Minnesota has Dustin Johnson as the favorite at +1100. TPC Twin Cities is a long course with smaller greens, so long hitters with good iron play will find success here.

Matthew Wolff won the 2019 3M Open after a three-way playoff with fellow youngsters Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa. At this time last year, these guys were newcomers bursting onto the scene. There is definitely an opportunity for another first time winner this week in Minnesota.

2020 3M Open Sleepers Odds at FanDuel

Golfer Odds to Win Top 5 Odds Top 10 Odds Top 20 Odds
Will Gordon +7000 +1200 +650 +335
Keith Mitchell +11000 +2000 +1100 +450
Peter Uihlein +12500 +2200 +1100 +500

Odds taken July 22nd

Gordon Relying on the Long Ball

The young Will Gordon has started to turn some heads on the PGA Tour this season. Gordon’s recent performance at the Travelers Championship gave him some legitimacy in his young career.

The 23-year old finished third at TPC River Highlands, with an impressive second round of 62. Moreover, Gordon led the field in birdies that week with 27.

Gordon hits it a long way, averaging 306.6 yards per drive, which will help him score this week in Minnesota. Over the last eight PGA Tour tournaments, Gordon is third in Greens in Regulation, fifth for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and third in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

Gordon gained a lot of experience on the Mackenzie Tour last year and it has shown in his first season on the PGA Tour. The North Carolina native has only played a handful of events, but he’s played well enough to gain a Special Temporary Membership on Tour. Gordon still has a lot to prove, however, this could very well be his breakout week.

Pick: Top 10 (+650)

Mitchell’s Week in Minnesota

Like Gordon, Keith Mitchell hits the ball a mile. However, that is not the reason why he is one of my sleepers picks this week.

TPC Twin Cities is an Arnold Palmer designed course, but Palmer has designed most of his courses in Florida. Evidently, Mitchell has played really well on those courses down south.

Mitchell won his first and only PGA Tour event at last year’s Honda Classic at PGA National. He has played very well at the Arnold Palmer Invitational finishing fifth this past year and sixth in 2019.

The UGA product had a great showing at last week’s Memorial Tournament. Mitchell was third in Greens in Regulation and 13th in Ball Striking in Dublin, Ohio as he finished 22nd last week. He did not have a single round in the 60’s, but played consistent golf in tough conditions.

Mitchell tends to putt better on Bermuda grass surfaces, but that shouldn’t stop him from rolling the ball well in Minnesota. The 28-year-old is 28th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season and he should have no trouble dealing with one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour’s schedule.

Pick: Top 10 (+1100), Top 20 (+450)

Uihlein’s Savvy Golf IQ

Even though Peter Uihlein is American he plays most of his golf overseas on the European Tour. However, due to the state of the world right now, Uihlein has played most of his recent golf on the Korn Ferry Tour.

The American’s few starts on Tour recently have been very solid and it is because of how hot his putter has been. This season, Uihlein has been making just over 40 percent of his putts from between 10-15 feet. Not to mention, over the last eight Tour events, he is second in Strokes Gained: Putting.

TPC Twin Cities tends to be a very windy course, which is a challenge Uihlein is used to playing in Europe so often. If Uihlein could hone in on his ball-striking for the week there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to finish in the Top 20.

Pick: Top 20 (+500)

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