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Jon Rahm’s PGA Championship Odds Now +1000 After Winning the Memorial Tournament

Jon Rahm has finished T9 or better in four of his last eight Major Championship appearances. Photo by @GolfChannel (Twitter).
  • Jon Rahm now has the second shortest PGA Championship odds following his win at Muirfield Village
  • The victory propelled Rahm to No. 1 in the world rankings
  • Read below for analysis on whether or not Rahm is still a good bet to win the PGA Championship at his new price

There’s a new World No. 1 in golf and his name is Jon Rahm. The 25-year-old vaulted to the top of the world rankings Sunday, following his win at the Memorial Tournament, passing Northern Ireland’s Rory McIlroy.

He becomes just the second Spaniard to ever reach No. 1, and is now a top-two contender at online sportsbooks to win the year’s first Major.

2020 PGA Championship Odds

Golfer Current Odds at FanDuel Odds on July 13th
Rory McIlroy +700 +1200
Jon Rahm +1000 +1800
Bryson Dechambeau +1100 +1000
Brooks Koepka +1200 +2800
Dustin Johnson +1200 +1800
Justin Thomas +1200 +900
Patrick Cantlay +2000 +1600
Tiger Woods +2000 +2500
Xander Schauffele +2000 +2000
Webb Simpson +2700 +2500

Odds taken July 19th.

His PGA Championship odds have been shortened from +1800 to +1000, behind only McIlroy. Rahm posted two top-nine finishes at Majors last season, and finished fourth at the 2018 PGA Championship.

Peaking at the Right Time

His final round 75 on Sunday may look ugly, but conditions were US Open like at Muirfield Village over the weekend, and he was also assessed an unfortunate two-stroke penalty on 16, that put a damper on a miraculous chip-in.

While the rest of the first page of the Memorial leaderboard was crumpling around him, Rahm played steady golf for the most part, and was a wizard around the greens when he did find trouble.

He gained 6.26 shots on the field around the green this week, and 15.46 strokes tee-to-green. His off the tee and approach game was elite, and he showed a lot of discipline playing safe when he had to, and attacking when the opportunity presented itself.

That kind of discipline will be imperative if he wants to challenge for his first Major title this year at TPC Harding Park, a course that is going to demand patience and precision.

A Good Fit at TPC Harding Park

The 2020 PGA Championship venue will reportedly play much longer than the 7,169 yards its scorecard currently states, and grounds crews have been working around the clock to ensure its difficulty. Miss the narrow fairways and you’ll be standing in rough that covers your ankles, and even if you find the putting surface on your approach shot, you’ll still have to deal with lightning fast greens.

With so much trouble off the tee, elite drivers are players you’re going to want to target. McIlroy, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson all fit that bill, as does Rahm.

Rahm ranks fifth in 2020 in strokes gained off-the-tee, and has been positive in that metic in every tournament this season. This past week was no exception, as he ranked eighth in the field in that category, hitting 67% of his fairways, while averaging just under 300 yards.

He consistently gains strokes around the green and with his putter, but if there’s been a weakness to his game recently, it’s been his approach play. He got off to a slow start with his irons when the PGA schedule resumed, but that has apparently been fixed.

Jon Rahm Last Two Starts

Event Finish SG: T2G SG: OTT SG: APP SG: ARG SG: P
Memorial 1 15.46 4.2 5 6.26 2.2
Workday Charity Open 27 5.1 2 4 -1 0.5

Last week, he gained 4 strokes on approach and he followed that up this week by gaining another 5. When his game is firing on all cylinders he’s going to be in contention, the question now is can you bet him at such a short price?

The Value is Gone

Jon Rahm was listed at high as +2500 pre-tournament to win the Memorial, which was a no-brainer bet. However, at the same time he was +1800 to win a Major, something he’s never done before, against a tougher field. Even at that number, it was debatable how much value Rahm presented, but now at +1000 there’s absolutely nothing left.

Of course he could go out and win, but the opportunity cost is too high. His implied probability to win at the number is 9.1% and there’s just no way that can be a profitable bet in a sport that’s as volatile as golf. That means we should look a little deeper down the odds board, and there’s one name that stands out at +3300.

Like Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood is still looking for his first Major, but he is on the verge of a breakthrough. He finished second at the Open in 2019, and runner-up at the US Open in 2018. He too is an elite ball striker, consistently gaining shots off the tee and on approach, and if the course plays as difficult as it projects, he’s definitely somebody you’ll want to have shares of.

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