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Scottish Open Odds, Picks & Predictions

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Jul 10, 2023 · 12:35 PM PDT

Scottie Scheffler tees off at TPC Sawgrass.
Scottie Scheffler tees off on hole 3 Wednesday morning. Sunny skies with a cool breeze greeted players and fans during Wednesday's practice session at THE PLAYERS Championship in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, March 8, 2023. [Bob Self/Florida Times-Union] Jki 030823 Bs The Players Wed 13
  • Odds are live for the Scottish Open which tees off on Thursday, July 13th
  • Scottie Scheffler is the +650 favorite, followed by Rory McIlroy at +750
  • Don’t miss the 2023 Scottish Open odds, picks, and best value bets below

The PGA Tour’s elite have travelled across the pond this week for a taste of links golf before the season’s final Major.

They’ll tee it up with 75 of the DP World Tour’s best starting Thursday at the Scottish Open, in the second year the event has been co-sanctioned by the two Tours.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy headline the field, followed by Patrick Cantlay and defending champ Xander Schauffele.

2023 Scottish Open Odds

Golfers Odds
Scottie Scheffler +650
Rory McIlroy +750
Patrick Cantlay +1200
Xander Schauffele +1400
Viktor Hovland +1800
Rickie Fowler +1800
Tyrrell Hatton +2000
Tommy Fleetwood +2000
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
Jordan Spieth +2200
Shane Lowry +3000
Min Woo Lee +3500
Wyndham Clark +3500
Max Homa +4000
Justin Rose +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Ludvig Aberg +4500
Sam Burns +4500
Tom Kim +5000
Sungjae Im +5000

Scheffler opened up as the +650 favorite, looking for his first win since the Players Championship. The World number one has been far and away the most dominant golfer tee-to-green this year, but horrendous putting has held him back.

 

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Odds as of July 10th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on the Scottish Open or check out the best mobile sports betting apps

Scottish Open Favorites

Nevertheless, Scheffler hasn’t finished outside the top-12 since last October. He’s reeled off six straight top-five finishes, gaining at least 10.6 strokes tee to green in each of those starts. Scheffler is a very deserving favorite, but even with his incredible form, you’d be bleeding money if you kept betting him at such short odds.

McIlroy meanwhile, is on a run of exceptional form as well. He’s posted five straight top-seven results, including a runner-up finish at the U.S. Open. Rory’s gained strokes in every key metric in each of those tournaments, ranking fifth in scoring and second in strokes gained tee to green (behind Scheffler) over the last 24 rounds.

Like Scheffler though, McIlroy’s price is tough to stomach. His form suggests his first victory in nine months is close, but it’s tough to pull the trigger on him in a field this strong at +750 odds.

Fleetwood a Fine Target

One player whose price is certainly worth targeting is Tommy Fleetwood at +2000. Fleetwood missed the cut last time out at the Travelers, but prior to that put on a ball striking clinic at the U.S. and Canadian Opens. He gained a total of 18.6 strokes with his ball striking between those two events, including 10.4 strokes with his irons.

The Renaissance Club, which hosts the Scottish Open, is a ball strikers paradise, continually awarding the best iron players over the past few years. Schauffele was clinical with his irons in 2022 en route to the title, as was Min Woo Lee and Aaron Rai in previous years.

Past Five Scottish Open Winners

Year Winner
2022 Xander Schauffele
2021 Min Woo Lee
2020 Aaron Rai
2019 Bernd Weisberger
2018 Brandon Stone

Fleetwood is clearly capable of replicating that performance, and has some phenomenal course history at this event. He lost in a playoff in 2020 to Rai and finished fourth last year. The Englishman has four top-five results in his last nine starts, and has been building towards a victory all season long.

Pick: Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)

2023 Scottish Open Picks and Value Bets

  1. Justin Rose (+4000): Going further down the board, fellow Englishman Justin Rose is also an appealing outright target. He won earlier this year at Pebble Beach, another course where iron play reigns supreme, and ranks sixth in the field over the last 24 rounds in strokes gained approach. Rose enters the week with three top-12 results in his last four starts, making him a viable top-20 wager as well at +175.
  2. Aaron Rai (+6500): We already spoke about Rai’s win here in 2020, and he starts the week riding his best form since that victory. He’s posted three straight top-25 finishes, with a third and ninth place result during that stretch. He ranks fifth in the field in iron play over the last 24 rounds, gaining 6.7 strokes on approach in his most recent start. The man best known for wearing two gloves is also a fantastic T-20 target, boasting +240 odds to accomplish the feat.
  3. Gary Woodland (Top-40, +105): Last but not least, don’t sleep on Gary Woodland in the Top-40 market. He’s finished 39th or better six times in his past eight starts, gaining at least four strokes with his irons in four of his last six tournaments. Woodland finished 30th at this event last year and is poised to replicate that result this week.

 

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