Improbable and Mr Freeze 4-1 Favorites to Win Oaklawn Handicap on May 2

• The first Saturday in May is traditionally Kentucky Derby day
• With Churchill Downs closed, Oaklawn Park has taken center stage
• The $600,000 Oaklawn Stakes is a tremendous betting race

On Derby day often times the best race of the afternoon is not the Kentucky Derby. Limited to three-year-olds, the Run for the Roses does not have fully mature horses.

While this year the Kentucky Derby has been moved to September, Oaklawn Park has picked up the festivities running the Arkansas Derby May 4. However, the Oaklawn Handicap might be the better race and certainly provides lots of different wagering options.

Let’s take a look at the 14-horse field and discuss some of the primary contenders.

2020 Oaklawn Handicap Odds

All odds taken April 28.

Favorites

Bob Baffert’s Improbable should be ready to give a strong performance in his second race as a four-year-old. He was the tepid Kentucky Derby favorite last year but crossed the finish line fifth. He has just one win since the start of 2019 but ran a very solid second off the bench on April 11 in the Oaklawn Mile.

Post number 14, the extreme outside, does no favors to Improbable, he has never beaten older horses, and it is possible he prefers running shorter distances than a mile-and-an-eighth. The price (4/1) isn’t bad, but there may be more value elsewhere.

Mr Freeze came into his own in the fall and is just about always close. He has finished first or second in nine of 12 career races. His best career effort came last time out when he ran away with the Gulfstream Park Mile.

While the win in February was impressive, today Mr Freeze faces a stronger field and he has never beaten horses of this caliber.

Tacitus was fourth across the final line at last year’s Kentucky Derby. Though he has faced the best competition possible since then, he has not won. Tacitus came close at last year’s Belmont Stakes.

Tacitus has raced just once in 2020, in February’s $20 million Saudi Cup. He was fifth behind some of the best horses in the world. However, it is very rare horses return from the Persian Gulf and run their best race right away.

Other Contenders

Combatant’s career was seemingly going nowhere last year. As a four-year-old, he won twice in eight tries, facing menial competition, sometimes in turf races. However, this year he ran a decent third in a stakes race at Santa Anita, and then last month upset a grade one field on the dirt in LA.

Trainer John Sadler took over Combatant’s conditioning this year and the results have been strong. This will be the toughest challenge of his career.

By My Standards has four wins in his last five races with the only blemish an off the board finish at the Kentucky Derby. He was off from last May until February and returned to beat a mediocre group of horses in New Orleans. Then last month he romped in a graded stakes race at the Fair Grounds.

While By My Standards is lightly raced, and this is the best field he has faced since the Kentucky Derby, he has done little wrong.

If you want a big longshot, what about Trophy Chaser? After running in mostly sprints last year, he has been stretched out in 2020 and is two for two. His win in the Challenger Stakes last month was impressive.

Trophy Chaser faces much better horses today, but his last two races are good, and this is the type of race that could break a lot of different ways.

Analysis

Six horses have been evaluated in this article, and that isn’t really enough. Warriors Charge and Tax are viable too. Warriors Charge likely needs to go wire-to-wire, while Tax has run against very strong competition and on his best day may sit a perfect trip just off the pace.

While Improbable is the most likely winner, and 4/1 is fair, it is unclear whether he really has a 20% chance or better of winning. Meanwhile By My Standards has done little wrong, has looked really good as a four-year-old, and offers the best betting value in the field.