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Picks for 2019 Kentucky Derby: The 5 Best Bets to Make for Churchill Downs

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Horse Racing News

Updated Mar 25, 2020 · 10:02 AM PDT

The Kentucky Derby
The Kentucky Derby is horse racing's most prestigious event and provides almost as many ways to wager as the Super Bowl. Photo by Roderick Eime (flickr)
  • The Run for the Roses is May 4th at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky
  • Kentucky Derby props are a great way to find value on the big race
  • Looking beyond who will win leads to great betting opportunities

Extraordinary attention is spent on who is going to win the biggest horse race of the year. We remember the victors and forget most of the rest. However, when it comes to betting, particularly this year when the list of reasonable candidates is lengthy, there is more value in other types of wagers.

Super Bowl props have become huge business. It is easy to understand why. The point spread and total on an individual game might be bang-on, providing no edge to bettors. Conversely, the more props on the board, the greater chance to find a line that is off.

This year’s group of Derby contenders has no standout, as evidenced by the latest Kentucky Derby odds. Sure, there may be value on a horse that ought to be 10-1 but goes off at 15-1, but looking at props provides another opportunity to win cash.

2019 Kentucky Derby Winning Post Position Odds

Gate the Kentucky Derby winner starts from Odds
#1-10 +100
#11-20 -130

*Odds taken 05/3/19

Over the years, there have been more Kentucky Derby winners from the first 10 stalls than the second group. While a full field of 20 often participates, there have simply been many more entries to fill up the first 10 consistently than the back side.

Prior to 2008, only one horse had ever won from gate 17, 18, 19 or 20. However, recently that has changed. In fact, there seems to be no major advantage to any gate of late. Big Brown broke from post number 20 in 2008; in 2011 Animal Kingdom was number 16; a year later, I’ll Have Another won from the 19 hole; and in 2015, American Pharoah was number 15.

Five of the last eight winners have started from gate 13 or higher.

Five of the last eight winners have started from gate 13 or higher.

Interestingly, post 10 has finished first, second, or third the most frequently. Number 10 has hit the board over 29% of the time.

The gate props for this year’s race changed drastically since they first opened (which was prior to the drawing).

There are three legit favorites. Two are on the outside (Game Winner, #14; Roadster, #15) and one is on the inside (Improbable, #5). However, the next group of top contenders are all on the inside. There is marginal value on the outside gates at -130, which gets two out of three favorites.  But it’s not a slam dunk by any stretch.

Pick: #11-20 (-130)

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Odds of the Favorite at Post Time

The odds for the favorite at post time will be …? Odds
< 3-1 (LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO) +110
> 3-1 (GREATER THAN) -150

After a long stretch where horses were winning the Kentucky Derby at huge prices, recently the favorite has been priced appropriately and won. Six straight Derby’s have been won by the favorite, and in four of them the price was 3/1 or less.

What those trends don’t tell you is who is running this year. The Derby prep races have produced a smorgasbord of inconsistent results leading to no clear favorite. There are four legitimate candidates to be the chalk this year (Roadster, Improbable, Omaha Beach, Game Winner) and unless a couple of them scratch, they will split the betting and the favorite should be 5/1 or higher.

Pick: > 3-1 (GREATER THAN) (-150)

 

Odds the Winning Trainer is a First-Time Kentucky Derby Winner

Will the winning trainer be a first-time Kentucky Derby winner? Odds
Yes +250
No -400

When the odds on the “Yes” were +500 and Omaha Beach was still in the race, I loved the “Yes.” But now, the “No” is the play at -400.

Taking the “No” gets you all of Bob Baffert’s horses – Game Winner, Roadster, and Improbable – and they just so happen to be the three favorites for the race.

The “No” cashes if Code of Honor wins, as well; his trainer, Shug McGaughey, won the Derby with Orb in 2013. Three other big longshots can also make the “No” a winner: Todd Pletcher’s Cutting Humor and Spinoff, plus Steve Asmussen’s Long Range Toddy.

The best bets for the “Yes” are Florida Derby-winner Maximum Security, Wood Memorial-victor Tacitus, Blue Grass Stakes-winner Vekoma, and Louisiana Derby champ By My Standards. That is not a strong enough group to take +250.

Pick: Yes (+250)

Odds the Winning Trainer Will Have Won an Eclipse Award

Will the winning trainer have won an Eclipse Award? Odds
Yes -200
No +160

I like the “Yes” here even more than the “No,” above. Essentially we get -200 betting on a Baffert horse to win. But we also get Pletcher’s Cutting Humor and Spinoff, plus Bill Mott’s Tacitus and Country Home. This may be the best bet of the weekend.

Pick: Yes (-200)

Odds an NBC Host Wins Their Trifecta Bet

Will an NBC Host Win their Trifecta Bet? Odds
Yes +450
No -900

In a 20-horse race, in order to win a trifecta, you must correctly choose who finishes first, second, and third in the correct order. There are close to 7,000 possible combinations.

This prop opened with the no at -500, which gave the “experts” more than a 16% shot of winning. That was outlandish and the odds have shifted accordingly.

Of course, they will play more than one combination by boxing, and not all combinations are equally as likely, but there is still value on the “No” at -900. There’s much less than a 10% chance the “Yes” cashes.

Pick: No (-900)

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