Arozarena, India Take Over as AL and NL Rookie of the Year Favorites
- The favorites to win AL and NL Rookie of the Year have both changed over the past few days
- Randy Arozarena has surged past Adolis Garcia in the American League
- Jonathan India is capitalizing on Trevor Rogers missing time
The odds to win MLB’s two Rookie of the Year awards have undergone significant shifts over the last few days. At the start of the week, Texas outfielder Adolis Garcia was the American League favorite and budding Miami ace Trevor Rogers was the odds-on chalk in the National League.
As of Thursday, August 11, both are now looking up at new favorites. The first table below shows the current AL ROY odds. Scroll down for the NL.
American League Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena (OF, Rays) | +225 |
| Adolis Garcia (OF, Rangers) | +300 |
| Luis Garcia (P, HOU) | +350 |
| Akil Baddoo (OF, Tigers) | +550 |
| Andrew Vaughn (1B, White Sox) | +800 |
| Eric Haase (C, Tigers) | +1000 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (OF/1B, Orioles) | +2500 |
| Shane McCLanahan (P, Rays) | +4000 |
| Logan Gilbert (P, Mariners) | +4500 |
| Emmanuel Clase (P, Cleveland) | +5000 |
| Michael Kopech (P, White Sox) | +5000 |
| Casey Mize (P, TIgers) | +5000 |
| James Kaprielian (P, Athletics) | +5000 |
| Wander Franco (IF, Rays) | +10000 |
| Tarik Skubal (P, Tigers) | +10000 |
| Jarred Kelenic (OF, Mariners) | +10000 |
| Bobby Bradley (1B, Cleveland) | +10000 |
| Garrett Crochet (P, White Sox) | +10000 |
Odds as of Aug. 11, 2021, at DraftKings.
Tampa Bay’s 2020 playoff hero, Randy Arozarena, is still technically a rookie and understandably came into the year as the ROY favorite. He didn’t start out the way he finished last season, but he’s come on strong as October draws nearer.
At the same time, Adolis Garcia has cooled off. Here is how the favorites stack up statistically.
Comparing the AL ROY Favorites
| Player | GP/IP | Slashline | RBI | HR | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 100 | .272/.352/.485 | 52 | 16 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.9 |
| Adolis Garcia | 101 | .251/.296/.466 | 67 | 24 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.1 |
| Luis Garcia | 106.2 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.29 | 1.09 | 10.88 | 2.4 |
| Akil Baddoo | 92 | .266/.333/.461 | 44 | 10 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.7 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 97 | .264/.331/.460 | 37 | 13 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.3 |
| Eric Haase | 66 | .238/.271/.465 | 46 | 18 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.4 |
Pitchers listed in italics.
If the season ended today, Arozarena and Adolis Garcia would both have decent arguments. Arozarena is getting more hits and getting on base more, but Garcia is hitting for more power and driving in more runs.
It’s always hard comparing rookie hitters and rookie pitchers, but Luis Garcia is definitely in this race, too. While he is a few innings shy of being qualified for the ERA title, he would rank eighth in the AL. His 10.88 strikeouts-per-nine would be fourth.
The bottom three players in the table (who are fourth through sixth in the AL ROY odds) are not statistically in the same tier and would have to explode in the last six weeks of the season to change that.
National League Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jonathan India (2B , Reds) | -140 |
| Trevor Rogers (P, Marlins) | +105 |
| Ian Anderson (P, Braves) | +2200 |
| Patrick Wisdom (1B/3B, Cubs) | +2500 |
| Dylan Carlson (OF, Cardinals) | +3000 |
| Tyrone Taylor (OF, Brewers) | +5500 |
| Tyler Stephenson (1B, Reds) | +6500 |
| Jazz Chisholm (2B/SS, Marlins) | +7500 |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, Pirates) | +7500 |
| Yonathan Daza (OF, Rockies) | +9000 |
| Ha-Seong Kim (P, Cardinals) | +10000 |
| Adbert Alzolay (P, Cubs) | +10000 |
| Pavin Smith (1B, Diamondbacks) | +10000 |
| Ryan Weathers (P, Padres) | +10000 |
| Zach Thompson (P, Marlins) | +10000 |
Odds as of Aug. 11, 2021.
The odds say the NL is a two-horse race between India and Rogers and the stats agree. India has clearly been the most-effective rookie hitter in 2021, while Rogers is miles ahead of any other rookie pitcher.
Comparing the NL ROY Favorites
| Player | GP/IP | Slashline | RBI | HR | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathon India | 105 | .283/.402/.460 | 48 | 13 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.1 |
| Trevor Rogers | 110.0 | .167/.167/.167 | 1 | 0 | 2.45 | 1.13 | 10.55 | 3.3 |
| Ian Anderson | 96.0 | .077/.077/.115 | 0 | 0 | 3.56 | 1.25 | 9.19 | 1.9 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 65 | .247/.316/.502 | 33 | 16 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.5 |
| Dylan Carlson | 111 | .244/.320/.406 | 15 | 62 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.4 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 77 | .240/.330/.461 | 35 | 9 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.1 |
Pitchers listed in italics.
The odds favored the 23-year-old hurler until he went out of the lineup. He was placed on Miami’s family medical emergency list and has missed two straight starts. One thing is for sure, the last-place Marlins have no incentive to rush back the future (current?) ace of their staff.
Stay up to date with all the changes in the AL and NL Rookie of the Year odds with SBD’s tracker. Players have fewer than 50 games to bolster their resume, but the odds are going to continue to change by the week, if not the day.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has now been an assigning editor, writer, and lead oddsmaker for SBD for over five years. He covers everything you can possibly put odds on, but specializes in football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.
