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Arozarena, India Take Over as AL and NL Rookie of the Year Favorites

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Aug 10, 2021 · 9:58 PM PDT

Randy Arozarena takes a cut
Tampa Bay Rays' Randy Arozarena swings at a pitch from the Baltimore Orioles during the fifth inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, May 19, 2021, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
  • The favorites to win AL and NL Rookie of the Year have both changed over the past few days
  • Randy Arozarena has surged past Adolis Garcia in the American League
  • Jonathan India is capitalizing on Trevor Rogers missing time

The odds to win MLB’s two Rookie of the Year awards have undergone significant shifts over the last few days. At the start of the week, Texas outfielder Adolis Garcia was the American League favorite and budding Miami ace Trevor Rogers was the odds-on chalk in the National League.

As of Thursday, August 11, both are now looking up at new favorites. The first table below shows the current AL ROY odds. Scroll down for the NL.

American League Rookie of the Year Odds

Player  Odds
Randy Arozarena (OF, Rays) +225
Adolis Garcia (OF, Rangers) +300
Luis Garcia (P, HOU) +350
Akil Baddoo (OF, Tigers) +550
Andrew Vaughn (1B, White Sox) +800
Eric Haase (C, Tigers) +1000
Ryan Mountcastle (OF/1B, Orioles) +2500
Shane McCLanahan (P, Rays) +4000
Logan Gilbert (P, Mariners) +4500
Emmanuel Clase (P, Cleveland) +5000
Michael Kopech (P, White Sox) +5000
Casey Mize (P, TIgers) +5000
James Kaprielian (P, Athletics) +5000
Wander Franco (IF, Rays) +10000
Tarik Skubal (P, Tigers) +10000
Jarred Kelenic (OF, Mariners) +10000
Bobby Bradley (1B, Cleveland) +10000
Garrett Crochet (P, White Sox) +10000

Odds as of Aug. 11, 2021, at DraftKings.

Tampa Bay’s 2020 playoff hero, Randy Arozarena, is still technically a rookie and understandably came into the year as the ROY favorite. He didn’t start out the way he finished last season, but he’s come on strong as October draws nearer.

At the same time, Adolis Garcia has cooled off. Here is how the favorites stack up statistically.

Comparing the AL ROY Favorites

Player GP/IP Slashline RBI HR ERA WHIP K/9 fWAR
Randy Arozarena 100 .272/.352/.485 52 16 N/A N/A N/A 2.9
Adolis Garcia 101 .251/.296/.466 67 24 N/A N/A N/A 2.1
Luis Garcia 106.2 N/A N/A N/A 3.29 1.09 10.88 2.4
Akil Baddoo 92 .266/.333/.461 44 10 N/A N/A N/A 1.7
Andrew Vaughn 97 .264/.331/.460 37 13 N/A N/A N/A 1.3
Eric Haase 66 .238/.271/.465 46 18 N/A N/A N/A 1.4

Pitchers listed in italics.

If the season ended today, Arozarena and Adolis Garcia would both have decent arguments. Arozarena is getting more hits and getting on base more, but Garcia is hitting for more power and driving in more runs.

It’s always hard comparing rookie hitters and rookie pitchers, but Luis Garcia is definitely in this race, too. While he is a few innings shy of being qualified for the ERA title, he would rank eighth in the AL. His 10.88 strikeouts-per-nine would be fourth.

The bottom three players in the table (who are fourth through sixth in the AL ROY odds) are not statistically in the same tier and would have to explode in the last six weeks of the season to change that.

National League Rookie of the Year Odds

Player  Odds
Jonathan India (2B , Reds) -140
Trevor Rogers (P, Marlins) +105
Ian Anderson (P, Braves) +2200
Patrick Wisdom (1B/3B, Cubs) +2500
Dylan Carlson (OF, Cardinals) +3000
Tyrone Taylor (OF, Brewers) +5500
Tyler Stephenson (1B, Reds) +6500
Jazz Chisholm (2B/SS, Marlins) +7500
Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, Pirates) +7500
Yonathan Daza (OF, Rockies) +9000
Ha-Seong Kim (P, Cardinals) +10000
Adbert Alzolay (P, Cubs) +10000
Pavin Smith (1B, Diamondbacks) +10000
Ryan Weathers (P, Padres) +10000
Zach Thompson (P, Marlins) +10000

Odds as of Aug. 11, 2021.

The odds say the NL is a two-horse race between India and Rogers and the stats agree. India has clearly been the most-effective rookie hitter in 2021, while Rogers is miles ahead of any other rookie pitcher.

Comparing the NL ROY Favorites

Player GP/IP Slashline RBI HR ERA WHIP K/9 fWAR
Jonathon India 105 .283/.402/.460 48 13 N/A N/A N/A 3.1
Trevor Rogers 110.0 .167/.167/.167 1 0 2.45 1.13 10.55 3.3
Ian Anderson 96.0 .077/.077/.115 0 0 3.56 1.25 9.19 1.9
Patrick Wisdom 65 .247/.316/.502 33 16 N/A N/A N/A 1.5
Dylan Carlson 111 .244/.320/.406 15 62 N/A N/A N/A 1.4
Tyrone Taylor 77 .240/.330/.461 35 9 N/A N/A N/A 1.1

Pitchers listed in italics. 

The odds favored the 23-year-old hurler until he went out of the lineup. He was placed on Miami’s family medical emergency list and has missed two straight starts. One thing is for sure, the last-place Marlins have no incentive to rush back the future (current?) ace of their staff.

Stay up to date with all the changes in the AL and NL Rookie of the Year odds with SBD’s tracker. Players have fewer than 50 games to bolster their resume, but the odds are going to continue to change by the week, if not the day.

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