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Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Predictions, Odds & Player Props to Target on June 10

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Jun 10, 2024 · 7:31 AM PDT

Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz tagging Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jordan Westburg
Jun 9, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz (2) tags out Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jordan Westburg (11) in the fourth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Orioles aim for a  four-game sweep of the Rays in Tampa Bay on Monday, June 10
  • Baltimore sends ace Corbin Burnes to the mound opposite Ryan Pepiot for Tampa
  • Below, see the Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays odds, predictions, and starting pitcher stats

The Baltimore Orioles (42-22, 21-10 away) can complete a dominant four-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays (31-34, 17-21 home) on Monday at Tropicana Field (first pitch at 6:50 pm ET).

After winning each of the first three games of the series by at least three runs – and a combined score of 20-5 – the O’s are -148 road favorites in the finale behind ace Corbin Burnes.

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Baltimore Orioles (Burnes) -148 -1.5 (+114) O 7.5 (-102)
Tampa Bay Rays (Pepiot) +124 +1.5 (-135) U 7.5 (-118)

The Rays come back at +124 to end their three-game skid while the game total is sitting at just 7.5 with the under favored at -118. Baltimore is also a +114 bet to win by multiple runs (again); Tampa is -135 to keep the score within a run in Monday’s MLB odds.

 

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Odds as of June 10. Lock in a Fanatics Sportsbook promo to bet Orioles vs Rays on Monday. 

The Orioles continue to trail the Yankees by two games in the AL East and have faded to +300 in the MLB division odds. Tampa, deadlast in the AL East and already 14 games behind the Pinstripes, are now a +17000 longshot to win the division.

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Baltimore Dominating Tampa This Season

With the trio of lopsided victories from Friday to Sunday, the Orioles are now 5-1 against the Rays this season with all five victories coming by multiple runs and the lone setback a 4-3 defeat in which they blew a 3-0 lead over the final five innings.

Baltimore currently sits first in the MLB in team slugging (.452) and third in both wOBA (.331) and wRC+ (118). The Rays are below league-average in almost every hitting category, sitting 25th in wOBA at .294 and 21st in wRC+ at 95.

Unlike in recent years, Tampa’s pitching staff hasn’t been its saving grace. The team currently sits 24th in the MLB in runs allowed (315) and 19th in xFIP (4.10). The O’s are third in the league in runs allowed (230) and 11th in team xFIP (3.88). Their +101 run differential trails only the Yankees and Dodgers, while Tampa’s -62 mark is the fifth-worst in all of baseball.

Corbin Burnes vs Ryan Pepiot

Burnes
VS
Pepiot
6-2 Record 4-2
2.26 ERA 3.96
2.75 xERA 2.88
1.02 WHIP 0.96
24.2% K% 28.9%

The starting pitching matchup on Monday night is as good as it gets. The Orioles have unbeaten ace Corbin Burnes on the mound, and the former Brewers has been lights-out in his last two outings, going 14.0 innings while allowing just a single earned run on seven hits and four walks. This will be Burnes’ first start of the year against Tampa and there is very little history between him and the Rays batters: Tampa’s lineup is batting .200 with a .500 OPS in just ten total at-bats.

Ryan Pepiot has been one of the few bright spots for the Rays this season. Though he’s sporting a mediocre 3.96 ERA, his xERA is a superb 2.88 and his WHIP is under one (0.96), while his K-rate is near the top of the league at 28.9%.

That said, he was better at the start of the season than he has been lately. Pepiot has allowed 11 earned runs in total in just 17.2 innings over his last four starts with a 1.154 WHIP in that stretch. This will be Pepiot’s first career start against the Orioles and the former Dodger has never faced any of the hitters in Baltimore’s current lineup.

Orioles vs Rays Prediction

The 26-year-old Pepiot has a ton of arm talent, and he’s raised his average fastball velocity from 94.0 last year to 94.8 this season, but he’s also been trending down over his last four starts, and those were against significantly worse lineups than the one he’ll see on Monday (Marlins, Athletics, Red Sox, Mets).

On the other side, Burnes has regained the Cy Young-caliber form he had early in the season for the O’s – and he’s a close second to Tarik Skubal in the Cy Young odds as a result. It’s difficult to see the finale of this series going much different than the first three games, and I expect the Baltimore lineup, which has scored 20 runs over the last three games, to continue mashing.

BAL vs TB picks:

  • Orioles -1.5 (+114)
  • Pepiot under 15.5 outs recorded (+105)

 

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