Best MLB Player-Prop Picks Today (Aug. 18) Including Berrios, Woodruff Over/Unders
- All 30 MLB teams are in action on Friday, meaning thousands of player props are available
- Brandon Woodruff has been rock-solid since returning from injury, as he was before he went down
- Below, see today’s best MLB player-prop picks for Friday, Aug. 18, 2023
After a light Thursday with just six games on the schedule, the MLB slate on Friday ramps back up to full speed. Sixteen games are on the docket, including a double-header between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians, who were rained out yesterday.
Friday’s action begins with a matinee between the Kansas City Royals and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley (2:20 pm ET), though today’s player props all come from games starting at 6:40 pm ET or later.
All wagers are one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
Best MLB Player Props for Friday, Aug. 18
| Prop (Game) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jose Berrios Under 5.5 Ks (TOR vs CIN) | +112 |
| Brandon Woodruff Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (MIL vs TEX) | +105 |
| Seth Brown Under 0.5 Hits (BAL vs OAK) | +145 |
All three of today’s MLB player props are plus-money wagers. Toronto vs Cincinnati starts at 6:40 pm ET. Milwaukee vs. Texas is an 8:05 pm ET start. And Baltimore vs Oakland is the penultimate game of the night at 9:40 pm ET.
Odds as of Aug 17, 2023, at FanDuel and DraftKings. Claim a FanDuel promo code to bet on Friday’s MLB action and check out FanDuel Kentucky if you reside in KY.
Pick #1: Berrios Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+112)
The first pick on today’s card is Toronto starter Jose Berrios to stay under 5.5 strikeouts. DraftKings lists this prop at 6.5 but with -160 odds. I’ll take the lower number and juicier odds at FanDuel.
Berrios started the season among the secondary contenders in the Cy Young odds, but a rough start dropped him out of the running early. During an up-and-down year, “La Makina” has managed to go over 5.5 strikeouts in 12 starts while staying under in his other 12. Crucially, Friday’s start is on the road in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. (Great American Ball Park ranks second only to Colorado’s Coors Field in runs per game.) Berrios’ home/road splits this season are heavily skewed toward Toronto. His home ERA is 3.09 while his road ERA is 3.89.
He averages over one strikeout per inning at home (66 in 64.0 IP) but well under one strikeout per inning on the road (66 in 76.1 IP). This season has continued a longstanding tradition for Berrios who, for his career, has a 3.57/4.74 home/road ERA split.
The Reds’ lineup does strikeout a lot, on the whole, sitting seventh in the majors in K rate (24.1%), but Berrios is unlikely to go beyond five innings on Friday, meaning he would have to drastically up his road strikeout rate to get to six.
Pick: Berrios under 5.5 strikeouts (+112)
Pick #2: Woodruff Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+105)
Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff only made two starts this season before landing on the IL. He’s made another two since returning on August 8th and the common theme running through all of them is consistency. The ace of the staff before Corbin Burnes arrived on the scene, Woodruff has gone at least five innings in each start this year and has yet to surrender more than two runs or more than four hits. He enters Friday’s tilt with a 1.99 ERA and vintage-Jacob-deGrom-esque 0.84 WHIP, albeit in a very limited sample size.
This will undoubtedly be the most-potent lineup Woodruff has faced this season – his first four starts came against the Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates, and White Sox – but the bulk of the Rangers’ position players have never faced Woodruff, and only Corey Seager (eight at-bats) has faced him more than twice. Unfamiliarity tends to favor the pitcher, especially a pitcher of Woodruff’s calibre.
Pick: Woodruff under 4.5 hits allowed (+105)
Pick #3: Seth Brown Under 0.5 Hits (+145)
The final pick today comes from the AL-leading Baltimore Orioles visiting the MLB-worst Oakland Athletics. Holding down the #1 seed in the AL in the MLB playoff bracket, O’s send Kyle Gibson to the bump, and he’ll be looking to shake off a dreadful start last time out when he was touched up for nine runs on 12 hits (including three homers) by Seattle.
Prior to that game, Gibson had put in a run of four straight quality starts, going at least six innings in each one while surrendering nine runs combined (no more than three in any single game).
Kyle Gibson, Painted 90mph Back Door Cutter. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/9T2O5zFy2a
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 12, 2023
Facing the Athletics is every pitcher’s dream come true this season. Oakland sits dead-last in the majors in batting average, slugging, wOBA, and runs scored. Left fielder Seth Brown, with his 369 games played, is what qualifies as veteran leadership on the A’s roster. But like almost all of his teammates, Brown’s numbers are disappointing. He’s hitting just .219 for the year and has been worse at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum (.210 at home vs. .230 on the road).
His limited experience against Gibson favors the pitcher (0 for 2 with one strikeout). He’s also been held hitless in two straight games and five of his past eight. Getting Brown at significant plus-money to go hitless again is solid value.
Pick: Seth Brown under 0.5 hits (+145)
MLB betting record 2023: 4-6-1 (-0.91 units)
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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
