Braves vs Marlins Odds & Picks (Oct. 3)
- Atlanta is a -148 road favorite over Miami in the Braves vs Marlins odds on their Monday, October 3
- The Braves are 8-0 straight up in the last eight games against the Marlins
- Atlanta is 9-1 SU and 7-3 against the runline in the past 10 games played at Miami
The Atlanta Braves (100-59, 45-33 away) are on the brink of winning the NL East title, and there’s no better team for them to be facing right now than the Miami Marlins (67-92, 32-46 home).
Not only are the Marlins, fourth in the division, in a down cycle, they also happen to be especially poor when facing the Braves. Atlanta is riding an eight-game win streak against the Marlins. In Miami, the Braves are 9-1 SU over the past 10 games.
Oddsmakers don’t see this trend subsiding as the two squads begin a three-game season-ending set. It’s Atlanta that is set as the -148 road favorite in the series opener. Atlanta is 7-3 against the runline over the past 10 games played at Miami.
Braves vs Marlins Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | -148 | -1.5 (+112) | O 7 (-114) |
| Miami Marlins | -225 | +1.5 (+126) | U 7 (-105) |
Odds as of October 3 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.
At moneyline odds of -148, the Braves have an implied probability of victory of 59.68% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Atlanta would create a payout of $16.80.
First pitch at loanDepot Park goes at 6:40pm ET on Monday, October 3. The weather forecast is calling for sunny with cloudy periods with 7 mph wind and a temperature of 87 degrees.
The defending champion Braves are the +750 fifth betting choice in the World Series odds. As far as the MLB pennant odds are concerned, Atlanta is the third pick to win the NL flag at +425. The Braves are the -200 chalk to win the NL East in the MLB division odds.
Atlanta vs Miami Probable Pitchers
In Monday’s MLB lineups, the Braves are going with right-hander Bryce Elder in Monday’s series opener. He’s coming off a career performance.
Bryce Elder completes the first nine-inning complete game shutout by an Atlanta rookie since 1990 🔥 pic.twitter.com/IVVBRFqzHG
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) September 27, 2022
Elder tossed a complete game shutout in an 8-0 victory over the Washington Nationals on Sept. 26. He allowed six hits and struck out six against a solitary walk. It was Elder’s first win since he also got the decision in a 16-4 win over the Nationals on April 12.
The 23-year-old rookie is 0-1 with a 1.53 ERA in three starts this season against the Marlins. Elder has held Miami batters to a .164 average. He’s 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in five road appearances this season, including four starts.
Elder vs Luzardo Stats
| 2-3 | Record | 3-7 |
| 2.76 | ERA | 3.53 |
| 4.17 | xERA | 3.47 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.05 |
| 1.91 | SO/W Ratio | 3.18 |
Marlins left-hander Jesus Luzardo is 1-6 through his last seven decisions. He hasn’t posted a win since Aug. 7. The Marlins are 0-9 SU in his last nine starts. Six of those nine losses were one-run decisions, though.
Jesus Luzardo’s last 8 starts:
3.35 ERA, 7 QS, .202 BAA
Team record: 0-8The Marlins are now 3-14 when Luzardo starts. Luzardo is the 6th least profitable pitcher at -1070 this season, but he deserves so much better. https://t.co/Pn8slQhZT5
— Jake Fetner (@JakeFetner) September 29, 2022
Luzardo’s first win of the season came via a 5-4 decision over the Braves on April 24. Working five innings on the bump, Luzardo allowed two hits and one earned run.
He’s 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season. Luzardo is showing a 1-2 record and 6.23 ERA over three career starts facing the Braves.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Marlins Batters | Batting Average vs Elder | Braves Batters | Batting Average vs Luzardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Berti | .250 | Ronald Acuna Jr | .333 |
| JJ Bleday | .250 | William Contreras | .333 |
| Nick Fortes | .400 | Rex Grossman | .500 |
| Avisail Garcia | .333 | Austin Riley | .500 |
| Miguel Rojas | .333 | Dansby Swanson | .250 |
Marlins catcher Nick Fortes is 2-for-5 (.400) when facing Elder. Right fielder Avisail Garcia and shortstop Miguel Rojas are both 1-for-3 (.333) with an RBI.
Austin Riley doesn’t care about the DeGrom cheese @Barstool_ATL pic.twitter.com/gqP2KCHP13
— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) September 30, 2022
For the Braves, third baseman Austin Riley is 4-for-8 (.500) with an RBI against Luzardo. Rex Grossman (1-for-2) is also batting .500. Both Ronald Acuna Jr and William Contreras are 1-for-3 (.333). Matt Olson has homered and driven in two runs.
Braves vs Marlins Prediction
The Braves reached 100 wins and extended their NL East lead over the New York Mets to two games with Sunday night’s victory. Amazing to consider that on August 10, they were seven games behind the Mets. It could be that the defending World Series champs are playing their best baseball at the best time of year.
GO BALL! GET OUT OF HERE! pic.twitter.com/tLfTwhamK5
— Atlanta Braves Radio Network 🎙️ (@BravesRadioNet) October 3, 2022
Luzardo is certainly one of this year’s hard-luck pitchers. He’s made seven quality starts over his last eight appearances and Miami has lost all eight games. Over the season, the Marlins are 3-14 when Luzardo starts on the mound.
Pick: Atlanta Braves ML (-148)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
