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Central-Leading Brewers a Top-5 World Series Contender After Impressive Start

Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich and the Brewers have gotten off to a fast start in 2019. Photo by Ian D'Andrea (flickr) [CC License].
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have surpassed oddsmakers’ expectations so far in 2019
  • Milwaukee is in first place in the Central Division and has the second highest winning percentage in the National League
  • The Brewers are 7-3 at home this season

The beginning of the 2019 MLB season has been full of surprises.

The Boston Red Sox are a train wreck, the New York Yankees can’t keep anyone on the field, and the Milwaukee Brewers have emerged as World Series contenders. Bovada is giving the Brew Crew some love as you can see in the latest World Series Odds.

2019 World Series Odds

Team 2019 World Series Odds at Bovada
Houston Astros +375
Los Angeles Dodgers +700
New York Yankees +750
Philadelphia Phillies +900
Boston Red Sox +1100
Milwaukee Brewers +1100
Tampa Bay Rays +1200

*Odds taken 04/18/19

It’s been a good start for Milwaukee, as they currently sit atop the NL Central with a 12-7 record. The problem is that a deeper dive into the numbers shows not only is that unlikely to continue, but they definitely shouldn’t be considered contenders like the other teams around them. Here’s the case why you should fade the Brewers.

Christian Yelich is Great, but the Brewers Are Not

Christian Yelich leads the National League with nine home runs and leads the Majors with 26 RBI. He is an absolute superstar and is carrying the Brewers to some of these early season wins.

Christian Yelich leads the National League with nine home runs and leads the Majors with 26 RBI.

The issue is that even with his otherworldly production, Milwaukee has actually given up more runs than they’ve scored this season. They have a -2 run differential, while the Dodgers are +29, the Astros are +21 and the Tampa Bay rays are a league-best +47. Those are the numbers of true contenders. You can’t be considered an elite ball club when you’re getting outscored by your opponents, and that stat more than any other evens out over the course of 162 games.

Tampa Bay Rays Providing Great Value

As good as Yelich has been at the plate, Blake Snell has been just as good on the mound. The reigning American League Cy Young winner is putting up crazy numbers this season with 26 strikeouts in 25 innings with a 2.16 ERA and 0.76 WHIP.  He is currently on the 10-day disabled list, but is expected to return after missing only one turn in the rotation.

No other team in baseball leads their division by more than 1.5 games, while the Rays have a 5.5 game lead already.

Snell is the leader on a young team that is dominating the AL East right now. No other team in baseball leads their division by more than 1.5 games, while the Rays have a 5.5 game lead already. That kind of dominance may not continue, but they are building themselves a giant cushion should they hit a dry spell later in the season.

If Tampa Bay continues this run they won’t be listed at +1200 for very long. They have an 8.5 game lead on the Red Sox, and are sitting behind them in the odds. Don’t wait any longer to jump in one this up-and-coming team who should definitely be in the mix for the World Series once October rolls around.

PICK: Tampa Bay Rays (+1200)

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