Cubs vs Cardinals Predictions, Picks & Splits on July 27

• The Cubs and Cardinals begin a new series tonight in St. Louis
• Struggling starting pitchers for both sides point to a high-scoring game
• Keep reading for the Cubs vs Cardinals predictions, picks and splits on July 27, below

The Chicago Cubs (59-46) travel to Busch Stadium to open a new series against the St. Louis Cardinals (53-52) tonight. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 PM ET, with the MLB weather forecast calling for clear skies and 98 degree temperatures.

Both clubs enter Game 1 looking to bounce back from frustrating defeats. The Cubs recently dropped a tight 8-7 contest to the Pittsburgh Pirates despite a strong 12-hit offensive showing. Meanwhile, the Cardinals fell 5-3 to the Cincinnati Reds, though standout slugger Ivan Herrera provided a bright spot by launching a home run in the loss.

Entering as the road favorite in the MLB odds, the Cubs look to assert their dominance and improve a strong regular-season record. The Cardinals step up to the plate as the home underdog, aiming to defend their turf. Keep reading for the Cubs vs Cardinals predictions, picks and splits for July 27, below.

Cubs vs Cardinals Predictions and Picks

When evaluating this matchup from a straight-up perspective, the Cubs stand out as the stronger side against the Cardinals. Leading into this contest, the visitors boast a distinct offensive advantage. The roster is collectively hitting .247 with a .753 OPS and 507 RBIs, noticeably outpacing their opponents who sit at a .240 average with a .697 OPS and 454 RBIs.

Given these statistical edges and a superior regular-season record, my top pick is backing the Cubs Moneyline (-120 on BetMGM) to win outright. Recent form supports this angle, as the Cubs have won 60.0% of their last 10 games.

I am also targeting the Over 9.5 Runs (-110 on BetMGM). The Over has hit in 60.0% of the Cubs’ last 10 contests. With both starting pitchers struggling to miss bats consistently and a heavily depleted bullpen for the visiting squad, a high-scoring affair is the most probable outcome.

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For the MLB player props, I am targeting a pair of situational angles based on recent volume and historical success rates.

Pick: David Peterson UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-140 on BetMGM)
Fading David Peterson in the strikeout department offers excellent value. He has failed to exceed 3.5 strikeouts in 10 of his last 12 appearances, translating to an 83.3% success rate for under bettors. Across that span, he is averaging just 2.17 strikeouts per game according to the MLB batter vs pitcher stats.

Pick: Ian Happ OVER 0.5 Hits (-183 on BetMGM)
I am looking at the Over on Ian Happ’s hit total. Analysis of recent form shows Happ has been incredibly reliable at the plate. He has successfully exceeded this line in five of his last six games, an 83.3% hit rate that easily clears the target threshold for actionable trends.

David Peterson vs Matthew Liberatore Stats

Both starting pitchers enter this matchup looking to find consistency. The Cubs will send Peterson to the mound. Through four starts, Peterson has posted a 2-1 record but carries a bloated 5.57 ERA alongside a 5.06 FIP. The starter has had particular trouble missing bats, striking out just 4.71 batters per nine innings.

His pitch-to-contact approach leaves him vulnerable to extended rallies. His recent performance metrics mirror his season-long numbers entirely. On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Matthew Liberatore. Liberatore sports a 5-7 record with a 5.18 ERA over 20 starts.

Unlike Peterson, Liberatore has demonstrated reliable swing-and-miss stuff, boasting a solid 8.64 K/9 on the season. However, traffic on the basepaths has been a consistent issue, evidenced by an elevated 1.52 WHIP and a .289 opponent batting average. Over his last 10 appearances, his ERA has inflated to 5.70 across 47.1 innings of work.

Cubs vs Cardinals Stats

When evaluating how these rosters stack up, examining their respective situational splits reveals a stark contrast. The Cubs have thrived offensively away from Wrigley Field, plating an impressive 5.11 runs per game on the road, ranking fourth in the league.

Conversely, the Cardinals have struggled to find consistent run production at Busch Stadium, averaging a mere 3.73 runs per game. This inability to string together offensive momentum at home is further reflected in a .667 home OPS and 0.91 home runs per game, both sitting near the bottom of the majors.

However, the home squad does hold a noticeable edge in contact quality. They average an 88.9 mph exit velocity at home, good for seventh in the majors. This suggests they are striking the ball with authority when they connect, outpacing the visitors’ 88.0 mph road average.

Cubs vs Cardinals Odds

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Cubs vs Cardinals Splits

Looking at line movement, the moneyline has experienced a notable shift. The visitors opened at a modest -115 before being bet down to -120, pushing the home side from -105 to +100. These line adjustments are strongly supported by the MLB public betting splits. A massive 74.8% of moneyline tickets and 76.0% of the moneyline stake have poured in on the favored squad.

Bettors are also heavily invested in a high-scoring affair. The Over is attracting 69.7% of the tickets and 71.7% of the total stake. With both the ticket count and handle strongly supporting the Over, bettors are clearly expecting an elite road offense to dictate the pace of the game.