Upcoming Match-ups

Diamondbacks vs Rockies Odds, Lines, and Pick (April 7)

Nick Krueger

by Nick Krueger in MLB Baseball

Apr 7, 2021 · 8:32 AM PDT

Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder Ketel Marte celebrating
Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder Ketel Marte celebrates after the 13th inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies, Tuesday, April 6, 2021, in Denver. The Diamondbacks won 10-8 in 13 innings. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks return as favorites against Colorado on Wednesday night (8:40 pm ET) after winning in 13 innings on Tuesday 
  • Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner and Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela are both looking to shake off poor outings in their first starts
  • Read below for analysis on the matchup and a pick on the game

When two of the National League’s best teams are in your division, there is only so much you can do. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies each narrowly avoided being swept in their respective season-opening series against the Padres and Dodgers, respectively. Tonight, they will play the second game of their three-game set at Coors Field (8:40 pm ET).

The Diamondbacks are favored after winning the series opener in 13 innings on Tuesday, 10-8. Colorado is expected to send Antonio Senzatela, the team’s best starting pitcher from a year ago, to the mound. Arizona is expected to counter with veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner, who hopes to bounce back from a miserable four-inning 2021 debut against San Diego on April 1.

After Tuesday night, Arizona is 5-5 against Colorado in their last ten games played going back to last season. The NL West rivals have lit up the scoreboard during that stretch and combined to go over their projected run total in seven of those meetings.

Diamondbacks vs Rockies Odds

Team Runline at  DraftKings Moneyline Total
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+155) -103 O 11.5 (-103)
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-186) -113 U 11.5 (-120)

Odds as of April 7th, 2021.

Can McMahon Keep It Going?

Colorado third baseman Ryan McMahon has been one of the Rockies’ top hitters to start the season, and he cranked out three homers in his first three at-bats on Tuesday. After last night, the lefty is batting .444 through his first five games with four home runs and seven RBI.

The last time Bumgarner pitched against Colorado was on September 27, 2020, when the Diamondbacks won at home, 11-3. Bumgarner got McMahon to groundout in his first two plate appearances before he left the game ahead of the sixth inning. McMahon finished 0-4 in that game, and didn’t fare much better in any of his previous career at-bats against Bumgarner. All-time, McMahon has only hit .168 against left-handed starting pitchers, and was only marginally better against lefty pitching during Spring Training.

Colorado catcher Elias Diaz didn’t start on Tuesday, but hit the best of any Rockies everyday player during the spring, with six hits, five RBI and a .375 average. He came in the game in the seventh inning last night, but went 0-3 at the plate.

Rockies Career Stats vs Bumgarner

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG
Elias Diaz 2 0 0 0 0 .000
Josh Fuentes 6 1 0 0 4 .167
Ryan McMahon 8 0 0 1 3 .000
Trevor Story 38 8 5 10 14 .211
Raimel Tapia 6 3 0 0 2 .500
Garrett Hampson 15 3 1 2 2 .200
Charlie Blackmon 45 16 2 3 8 .356
Josh Fuentes 6 1 0 0 4 .167

Marte Leading the Charge for D-Backs

Heading into Tuesday night’s game, Arizona center fielder Ketel Marte led all NL hitters in batting average and hits, and was second in total bases and fourth in slugging percentage.

Marte went 3-for-7 with a double on Tuesday, and has had success against Senzatela when the two have faced each other. For as poorly as Bumgarner’s first start went this season, Senzatela’s was worse. In 3.1 innings against Los Angeles, the Dodgers popped off 9 hits for seven runs en route to an 11-6 win.

Last season at Coors Field, Marte hit went 7-for-14 over the course of three games with two doubles and four RBI. In 2020, Marte hit the Rockies better than any other single opponent that he had  at least 35 plate appearances against. One area he has been especially sharp this season is getting hits on pitchers in his first at-bats against them, and if Senzatela hasn’t figured out what was wrong for him in his first start, Marte could get things going early for the D-Backs.

Diamondbacks Career Stats vs Senzatela

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG
Carson Kelly 4 0 0 0 1 .000
Christian Walker 14 7 2 4 2 .500
Ketel Marte 20 10 0 3 3 .500
Eduardo Escobar 20 5 1 3 2 .250
David Peralta 19 3 1 4 0 .158
Tim Locastro 3 2 0 0 0 .667
Pavin Smith 1 0 0 0 0 .000

Who Has the Juice?

Given the recent history between these two teams, and on the heels of last night’s fireworks, it makes sense for Wednesday night’s matchup to be the highest projected total on the day’s schedule. However, after 13 innings the night before, the likelihood of a scoring letdown seems better than both teams combining for another 12 runs or more.

Senzatela pitched well at home last season but Bumgarner has generally got the better of Colorado going back to 2019, when he was still with San Francisco.  If the Rockies hadn’t gotten a career day from McMahon, Arizona would have won more decisively on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks demanded less of their bullpen last night and have been the better hitting team overall, which furthers their case to be the winning pick tonight.

The Pick: Arizona Moneyline (-103)

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