- The 2017 NLCS between the Dodgers and Brewers comes down to a winner-take-all Game 7 on Saturday (Oct. 20)
- Walker Buehler will get the start for LA while Milwaukee counters with Jhoulys Chacin
- The Dodgers are looking for back-to-back NL pennants, while the Brewers haven’t reached the World Series since 1982
After the Brewers staved off elimination in Game 6 of the NLCS with a 7-2 win, baseball fans will be treated to the most thrilling/enthralling/nerve-wracking thing in all of sports: a Game 7.
The decisive matchup of the 2018 NLCS is scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 20th, at Miller Park in Milwaukee at 6:09 PM ET. The prize for the winner? A spot in the 2018 World Series, where the indomitable Boston Red Sox await.
Below, find the latest odds, key statistics, pitching matchup, weather forecast, and score prediction for Game 7.
Dodgers vs Brewers Game 7 Odds
|DODGERS||-1.5 (+130)||-120||OVER 8.0 (+100)|
|BREWERS||+1.5 (-150)||+100||UNDER 8.0 (-120)|
The Dodgers have opened as slight -120 favorites for Game 7, even though Milwaukee has lost just one home game in the last month (8-1 in that span). That loss was a narrow 4-3 setback to the Dodgers in Game 2, a game Milwaukee was leading until the bullpen uncharacteristically gave up a three-run lead in the 7th and 8th innings.
Game 7 Pitching Matchup
|137.1 IP||REG. SEASON INNINGS PITCHED||192.2 IP|
|12.0 IP||PLAYOFF INNINGS PITCHED||10.1 IP|
|2.62 ERA||REG. SEASON ERA||3.50 ERA|
|6.75 ERA||PLAYOFF ERA||0.00 ERA|
|0.96 WHIP||REG. SEASON WHIP||1.16 WHIP|
|1.00 WHIP||PLAYOFF WHIP||1.06 WHIP|
|9.90 K/9||REG. SEASON K/9||7.29 K/9|
|11.25 K/9||PLAYOFF K/9||7.84 K/9|
The Dodgers closed as roughly -110 favorites in Game 6 but couldn’t get the job done behind Hyun-Jin Ryu. Now they turn to rookie Walker Buehler in a big spot in a repeat pitching matchup from Game 3 (a 4-0 Milwaukee win).
Buehler’s last two starts left a little to be desired (12 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 2 HR) but he came up huge in Game 163 against Colorado with the NL West title on the line, throwing 6.2 innings of one-hit, no-run ball in a 5-2 win. His playoff starts weren’t actually as bad as the bare numbers suggest — he’s struckout 15 of 48 batters faced and has a 1.00 WHIP — but a couple untimely mistakes led to costly longballs.
Jhoulys Chacin doesn’t have the strikeout numbers that Buehler does, but he’s been a more effective pitcher in the postseason. He gave up three hits and three walks over 5.0 scoreless innings against the Rockies in the ALDS, then bettered that ever so slightly in Game 3 versus the Dodgers: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 ER.
He’s the only Milwaukee pitcher to throw 5-plus innings in more than one game this postseason. Dating back to the regular season, he has now gone at least five innings without giving up more than one run in four straight starts.
Batting & Bullpen Matchup
|+194||REG. SEASON RUN DIFFERENTIAL||+95|
|+7||PLAYOFF RUN DIFFERENTIAL||+16|
|.250||REG. SEASON TEAM BATTING AVG||.252|
|.216||PLAYOFF TEAM BATTING AVG||.238|
|235||REG. SEASON HR||218|
|.774||REG. SEASON OPS||.747|
|3.72||REG. SEASON BULLPEN ERA||3.47|
|1.11||PLAYOFF BULLPEN ERA||2.94|
Our Game 6 preview noted how quiet the Brewers’ big bats of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain have been this series, and this playoffs in general. But that trend turned in Game 6, as Cain and Yelich went a combined 3-9 with a walk and three runs scored, while fellow disappointment Jesus Aguilar went 3-4 with 3 RBI.
Meanwhile, the heart of the Dodger order, which had been decent (compared to Yelich and Cain, anyway), went silent at the wrong time. Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and Manny Machado were a combined 1-11. The Dodgers only managed five hits, as a team, and only four after David Freese’s leadoff home run.
After 4.1 innings and two earned runs from Game 6 starter Wade Miley, Brewer manager Craig Counsell turned it over to his dominant relievers. Crucially, however, he did not have to use his Josh Hader bullet, getting 4.2 scoreless innings from Corey Knebel, Jeremy Jeffress, and Corbin Burnes.
Game 7 Weather Forecast at Opening Pitch
|WIND SPEED||17.5 MPH across to LF|
That 37° temperature is not a typo. Winter arrived in Milwaukee overnight; it’s going to be nearly 20° colder at opening pitch than it was in Game 6. The low temperature will make scoring even tougher than it’s already been in this series, and the crosswinds aren’t going to help matters.
Dodgers vs Brewers Game 7 Score Prediction
The Dodgers have had the edge in the starting pitcher matchup in most of this series. It’s hard to say that’s true in Game 7.
Buehler is a little down from his tremendous regular season, while Chacin has upped his game, pitching 10.1 shutout innings to date. Craig Counsell isn’t asking him to face batters a third time through the order, a trend that’s likely to continue, as he still has Josh Hader, Freddy Peralta, and Junior Guerra fresh in the pen.
Our numbers say this is a toss-up game, which makes the Brewers a better value bet at plus-money. However, the best wager given the weather conditions and the near-certainty that Hader is going to pitch multiple scoreless innings is the under. Chacin hasn’t given up a run in the playoffs, Buehler has a 1.00 WHIP, both bullpens have shut-down capabilities, and neither batting order has shown an ability to pile up runs this October.
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