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Fernando Tatis Jr. Given 3-1 Odds to Be Named NL Rookie of the Year

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Apr 26, 2019 · 8:14 AM PDT

Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. looks like a future superstar. Photo by Marshall Dunlap (flickr) [CC License].
  • You can wager on whether Fernando Tatis Jr. will win the NL Rookie of the Year Award
  • Tatis is having a phenomenal season, but trails Christian Walker and Pete Alonso in most key statistical categories
  • What’s the best bet?

Fernando Tatis Jr. is tearing the cover off the baseball. The San Diego Padres shortstop is off to a phenomenal start to his MLB career and is currently riding a 12-game hit streak.

He ranks near the top in almost every major offensive category among first year players, and you can now bet on whether or not he’ll win the 2019 National League Rookie of the Year Award.

Will Fernando Tatis Jr. Win the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Award?

Will Fernando Tatis Jr. Win 2019 NL Rookie of the Year? Odds
Yes +300
No -500

*Odds taken 04/25/19

Tatis is Raking

Along with Manny Machado, Tatis has rejuvenated the Padres fan base. He’s one of only five players in MLB history to hit at least six home runs in his first 20 games before the age of 21, and last Friday he made history against the Reds.

He leads all rookies in steals, and is one of just a handful of first year players with a hard hit rate above 48%. He pops in both traditional and advance metric categories, but the only reason he isn’t a runaway favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year is because New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker are playing out of this world at the moment.

The Competition is Stiff

Both Alonso and Walker have a better OPS, ISO rate and WOBA this season than Tatis. They’ve each hit more home runs and racked up more RBI, while maintaining a lower strikeout rate.

Their BABIP is slightly higher than expected, but their hard hit rate is off the charts. Walker leads all of baseball in that category with a 69.1% rate, while Alonso checks in inside the top-32. Neither was an elite prospect so regression is certainly possible, but until signs start to surface it’s hard to bet Tatis ahead of them.

Pass on Tatis

Not only does Tatis trail Alonso and Walker on the stat sheet, he’s also committed three errors in just 24 games.  His 28 strikeouts in just 87 at-bats is concerning, as is his 13.3% swinging strike rate. There is little doubt Tatis is going to be a star, but right now it doesn’t look like he’ll be the NL Rookie of the Year.

Pick: No (-500)

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