Ketel Marte Now Leads NL in Hits, Is He a Bona Fide MVP Candidate?
- Ketel Marte is now listed as an MVP candidate for the first time all season
- Marte is the NL hits leader, but trails both Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich in nearly every other significant offensive category
- Who is the best bet to win the NL MVP?
It didn’t take long for Ketel Marte to make Diamondbacks fans forget the name Paul Goldschmidt. After Goldschmidt was traded to St. Louis in the offseason, Arizona was left searching for a new face of the franchise and Marte has stepped in and filled that role admirably.
He’s on pace to reach career highs in every significant offensive category and is now a top six contender to win the NL MVP for the first time all season.
2019 National League MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | -125 |
| Christian Yelich | +160 |
| Nolan Arenado | +850 |
| Anthony Redon | +1400 |
| Freddie Freeman | +1400 |
| Ketel Marte | +1800 |
| Pete Alonso | +1800 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr | +1800 |
| Josh Bell | +2200 |
| Javier Baez | +2800 |
*Odds taken 07/09/19
His 2019 NL MVP odds are much longer than those of run-away favorites Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich, but you could argue he’s had just as big an impact on his team this season as they’ve had on theirs.
A Surprising Rise to Stardom
Prior to 2019, Martel had just two seasons with more than 225 at-bats. He’d never hit anywhere close to .300 and he averaged a home run every 63.6 at-bats.
This year, he leads the Diamondbacks in nearly every offensive category and is tied for the National League lead with 110 hits.
Ketel Marte makes his #MLBTwitterHitter debut tonight. pic.twitter.com/jdZ3i1rOI4
— ESPN (@NBA_FormulaOne) June 30, 2019
He’s fourth in the NL in WAR among positional players, sixth in average and tenth in slugging. He’s increased his slugging percentage by 132 points this season which has led to far more balls leaving the yard. After hitting just 22 home runs in 402 career games prior to this season, he now has 20 in 87 games in 2019.
This is just the beginning for Ketel Marte. pic.twitter.com/n3yGTmJqGB
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) June 28, 2019
Marte’s also made big improvements to his exit velocity meaning he’s making harder contact than ever before. His hard hit rate is up to 43% this season and more importantly his soft contact rate is down from 20.9% in 2018 to just 12.3% this season.
He’s a great story and the number one reason why the Diamondbacks are currently in the thick of the NL Wild Card hunt. Unfortunately, when it comes to his MVP prospects, he’s simply not in the same talent class as Bellinger and Yelich.
The NL MVP is a Two-Horse Race
The NL MVP race is going to come down to the wire. Both Bellinger and Yelich are lapping Marte and the rest of the field in nearly every major offensive category. Yelich may be a slight underdog in the betting market, but he’s actually outpacing Bellinger in home runs, OBP, slugging and OPS.
Over Christian Yelich’s last 162 games, he’s hitting .341 with an 1.135 OPS, 57 home runs, 41 doubles, 134 runs, and 145 RBI. pic.twitter.com/FqhqWamOtQ
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) July 2, 2019
He’s put up better power numbers in fewer at-bats and has also stolen 19 bases compared to just eight by Bellinger. In a race this close I’ll gladly take the value that Yelich’s +160 odds present.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
