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Marlins vs Reds Odds & Picks (July 28)

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Jul 28, 2022 · 7:40 AM PDT

Marlins vs Reds odds
Miami Marlins catcher Jacob Stallings (58) is tagged out at second base by Cincinnati Reds second baseman Jonathan India (6) attempting to stretch a hit for a double in the third inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Miami Marlins at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. Miami Marlins At Cincinnati Reds
  • The Cincinnati Reds are -140 home favorites over the Miami Marlins in the final game of a four-game National League series on Thursday July 28
  • Cincinnati has taken two of the first three games of this set
  • Miami is showing a -25 run differential over the club’s last 11 games

The Cincinnati Reds (37-59, 21-30), as the Miami Marlins (46-51, 24-28 away) are finding out, are suddenly a juggernaut at home. They are delivering greatness at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati is 8-2 straight up over the past 10 home games. The Reds will be looking to win their third successive home series when they take the field to face the Marlins on Thursday afternoon. Cincinnati holds a 2-1 SU edge so far through the first three games of this set.

Oddsmakers are liking their chances of doing just that. The Reds are set as -140 home favorites. Cincinnati is 7-9 SU as the home chalk this season.

First pitch at Great American Ball Park is set for 12:35 pm ET on Thursday, July 28. The weather forecast is showing partly cloudy skies with 8 mph wind and a temperature of 88 degrees.

Marlins vs Reds Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Miami Marlins +118 +1.5 (-170) O 9.5 (-105)
Cincinnati Reds -140 -1.5 (+143) U 9.5 (-115)

Odds as of July 28 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code for MLB here

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At odds of -140, the Reds are offering an implied probability of victory of 58.33% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Cincinnati would deliver a payout of $17.10.

Playing either of the Reds or Marlins in MLB futures isn’t what the smart money is doing. In the MLB Division odds, the betting line is showing Miami at odds of +4000 to win the NL East. Cincinnati is a +35000 dark horse to win the NL Central. The MLB pennant odds have the Marlins at +15000 and the Reds at +100000. In the World Series odds, Miami is +35000 and Cincinnati is +200000.

Miami vs Cincinnati Probable Pitchers

Marlins left-hander Daniel Castano is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville to get the start on Thursday. He was optioned to Jacksonville on July 15.

Castano has made nine appearances this season, the last six of them as a starting pitcher. He’s 1-2 over his past three starts. Castano has allowed 18 earned runs over the past 24.1 innings for a 6.66 ERA. He’s also served up a home run in each of his past five starts.

In 10 career road appearances, he’s 2-4 with a 4.10 ERA. Castano, who rates in the bottom 3% of MLB pitchers in strikeout percentage (13.2), will be making his first career appearance against the Reds.

Castano vs Ashcroft Stats

Daniel Castano
VS
Graham Ashcroft
1-3 Record 4-2
3.86 ERA 4.70
4.48 xERA 3.71
1.40 WHIP 1.42
2.22 SO/W Ratio 2.67

Making his 12th MLB start, Reds rookie right-hander Graham Ashcraft appears to be coming back to earth after a stellar launch to his big-league career. He’s 1-3 through his past seven starts after going 3-0 in his first four trips to the bump. In that seven-start span, Ashcraft’s ERA has grown from 1.14 to 4.70.

Ashcraft is among the bottom 4% among MLB hurlers in max EV (115.9) and in the bottom 7% in strikeout percentage (15.1). He’s allowed 24 earned runs over his past 35.2 innings pitched. Ashcraft has served up five home runs in that span. He surrendered one long ball through his first 24.2 innings of work.

In six home starts, Ashcraft is 3-1 with a 3.34 ERA. He’ll be facing the Marlins for the first time as an MLB pitcher.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Reds Batters Batting Average vs Castano Marlins Batters Batting Average vs Ashcraft
Brandon Drury .000 Jesus Aguilar .000
Stuart Fairchild .000 Willians Astudillo .000
Kyle Farmer .000 JJ Bleday .000
Jonathan India .000 Bryan De La Cruz .000
Mark Kolozsvary .000 Lewin Diaz .000
Mike Moustakas .000 Nick Fortes .000
Tyler Naquin .000 Avisail Garcia .000
Michael Papierski .000 Billy Hamilton .000
Tommy Pham .000 Miguel Rojas .000
Matt Reynolds .000 Jacob Stallings .000
Nick Senzel .000 Jesus Sanchez .000
Donovan Solono .000 Joey Wendle .000
Joey Votto .000 Luke Williams .000

There isn’t a batter on the Marlins who’s ever faced Ashcraft as an opposing pitcher in an MLB game. Overall, Miami’s Joey Wendle is 14-for-38 (.368) over his past 11 games.

Donovan Solano is the only Reds batter to have faced Castano. He’s 0-for-2. In all competition, Cincinnati’s Jonathan India has gone 13-for-40 (.325) with three homers and eight RBI through his last 11 games.

Marlins vs Reds Prediction

The Reds are 3-0-2 in their past five home series. Cincinnati has scored five or more runs in four of the past six games.

Miami, meanwhile, is skidding hard. The Marlins are 4-7 SU over the past 11 games and showing a -25 run differential during that span of time. They’re also 22-39 SU all-time at Great American Ball Park.

Miami clouted just two home runs Wednesday after hitting just two long balls through their previous 483 plate appearances. Runline bettors please note – Miami has played the most one-run games (39) and lost the most one-run games (21) in MLB this season.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (-140)

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