Mets vs Braves Best Bets, Picks & Splits on Jul 6

• Atlanta is a -126 home favorite tonight vs the Mets
• Reynaldo López offers a massive pitching advantage over Freddy Peralta
• Keep reading for the Mets vs Braves best bets, picks and splits on July 6

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves wrap up their four-game series tonight, at 7:15 PM EST at Truist Park. You can catch the broadcast on BravesVsn and SNY, while the MLB weather forecast is projecting a perfect night for baseball.

New York is coming off a narrow 10-9 victory over Atlanta yesterday, fueled by a 12-hit offensive outburst to secure the win, surviving a late six-run rally from the Braves.

Atlanta enters as the clear home favorite in the MLB odds with a strong 52-35 record. The road underdog Mets are trying to build momentum during a challenging 36-53 season. Below, I’ll breakdown the top Mets vs Braves best bets, picks and splits for the July 6th matchup.

Mets vs Braves Best Bets

• Braves Moneyline (-126 on at bet365)
• Over 9 Runs (-106 on at bet365)

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When evaluating the Mets vs Braves odds, Atlanta’s moneyline stands out as my favorite wager. They hold a commanding 52-35 record and field a deep lineup generating a .248 batting average. The Braves will turn to Reynaldo López, who posts a 3.34 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over his appearances. He has been highly effective, limiting opponents to a .234 batting average.

Conversely, New York has struggled with consistency, managing a .229 road batting average. They hand the ball to Freddy Peralta, who has labored to a 4.81 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.

For the total, anticipating a higher-scoring affair aligns with the underlying metrics. New York carries a collective 4.85 rotation ERA. Peralta’s vulnerability pairs dangerously with an Atlanta offense averaging 4.68 runs per game at home according to the MLB starting lineups data.

Mets vs Braves Picks

• Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155 on DraftKings)
• Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Hits (-214 on DraftKings)

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From an MLB props perspective, my favorite player prop is Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 Strikeouts. Despite his run-prevention struggles, Peralta maintains an 8.69 K/9 rate, and has exceeded 4.5 strikeouts in 10 of his last 15 road starts (67.0%) per the batter vs pitcher stats.

I also like Francisco Lindor’s contact props in this matchup. Lindor has exceeded 0.5 hits in five straight games against Atlanta, and has recorded at least one hit in four consecutive road games.

Mets vs Braves Odds

Odds as of July 6. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on MLB tonight.

Mets vs Braves Splits

When analyzing the MLB public betting splits, the public and the heavy money align perfectly. In the moneyline market, Atlanta, a top World Series odds contender, is drawing 79.3% of the betting tickets. More importantly, an incredible 94.2% of the money is backing the Braves. I lean on money percentages as the more valuable metric, and this massive financial backing reinforces my recommendation to take Atlanta outright.

The runline market tells a similar story. Bettors expect the Braves to win by a comfortable margin. Atlanta commands 69.1% of the runline tickets and an even more dominant 88.2% of the total runline money. Backing the Mets to cover the spread has garnered just 11.8% of the financial stake.

As for the total, a massive 94.5% of the tickets and 90.3% of the overall money are pouring in on the Over. Because over 90% of the actual financial stake backs a high-scoring affair, there is serious validation for targeting the Over.

Looking at historical trends, Atlanta has reliably capitalized on favorable matchups this season. They boast a 40-23 record (63.5% win rate) when listed as the betting favorite. Meanwhile, New York has struggled mightily when bookmakers cast them as the underdog. The Mets have won just seven of 32 such games, resulting in a meager 21.9% win rate.