- The New York Mets are -125 road favorites over the Milwaukee Brewers in the Mets vs Brewers odds for Wednesday, September 21
- New York clinched a National League playoff spot Monday with a win over Milwaukee
- That win ended a nine-game road losing skid for the Mets against the Brewers
Earning a playoff spot Monday at the expense of the Milwaukee Brewers (78-70, 41-30 home) was a big deal for the New York Mets (95-55, 45-29 away). Firstly, it put them in the National League postseason for the first time since 2016.
Secondly, the 7-2 victory was New York’s first win at Milwaukee in the past 10 games played there.
Oddsmakers think the Mets will be successful against Milwaukee again on Wednesday. They’re setting New York as a -125 road favorite. The Mets have won a series at Milwaukee for the first time since 2013 and could sweep the set.
Mets vs Brewers Odds
|New York Mets||-125||-1.5 (+135)||O 8 .5(-120)|
|Milwaukee Brewers||+105||+1.5 (-160)||U 8.5 (+100)|
Odds as of September 20 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.
At moneyline odds of -125, the Mets have an implied probability of victory of 55.56% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on New York would create a payout of $18.00.
The Mets are 3-14 SU and 8-9 against the runline over the past 17 road games facing the Brewers.
First pitch at American Family Field is set for 2:10 pm ET on Wednesday, September 21. The weather forecast is calling for mostly cloudy skies with 15 mph wind and a temperature of 75 degrees.
MLB betting trends are showing the Mets as the -223 chalk to win the NL East in the MLB Division odds. They’re also the +235 second choice to win the NL flag in the MLB pennant odds. In the World Series odds, New York is the +550 third-favorite.
New York vs Milwaukee Probable Pitchers
In Wednesday’s MLB lineups, the Mets roll with right-hander Taijuan Walker, who is 9-2 since June 12. He’s won back-to-back starts, allowing just three earned runs over his past 14.1 innings of work.
Taijuan Walker, Nasty 77mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/dJ0Ogj91CZ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 16, 2022
Walker has allowed a home run in each of his past three trips to the mound. Among MLB pitchers, he rates within the bottom 5% in Mac EV (115.9). His pre-All-Star break ERA was 2.55. Walker’s post-All-Star break ERA is 5.01. His WHIP jumps from 1.09 to 1.33 in the same splits.
Walker is 7-3 with a 3.36 ERA in 15 road starts this season. In day games, he’s 7-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He’ll be facing the Brewers for the first time as an MLB hurler.
Walker vs Houser Stats
Brewers right-hander Adrian Houser rates among the bottom 8% of MLB pitchers in strikeout percentage (15.1). He’s 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in three September starts.
Houser lost 4-0 to the Mets on June 14 in New York. He surrendered four earned runs in 4.2 innings of work. Facing the Mets three times in his career, including one start, Houser is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
Big step back for Adrian Houser after two good starts to begin the month of September. Against the Yankees: 3ip, 7h, 5r (4er), 4bb, 1k. 85 pitches, 30 swings, three whiffs.
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) September 17, 2022
Houser in 3-4 with a 3.73 ERA in 10 home appearances this season, including nine starts. He’s 4-3 with a 5.30 ERA in eight day-game trips to the bump, seven of them starts.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
|Brewers Batters||Batting Average vs Walker||Mets Batters||Batting Average vs Houser|
|Victor Caratini||.000||Pete Alonso||.667|
|Andrew McCutchen||.182||Luis Guillorme||.333|
|Omar Narvaez||.000||Francisco Lindor||.333|
|Hunter Renfroe||.167||Jeff McNeil||.500|
|Kolten Wong||.250||Tyler Naquin||.667|
|Christian Yelich||.500||Brandon Nimmo||.500|
Six Mets are batting over .300 off of Houser. By contrast, only six Brewers players have ever batted against Walker, and not many are faring well.
Tyler Naquin bounces one up the middle and it's 6-2 Mets! pic.twitter.com/4gcpSUR9zc
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 20, 2022
For New York, Tyler Naquin is 6-for-9 (.667) with a homer and eight RBI off of Houser. Pete Alonso is 2-for-3 (.667) with two RBI. Brandon Nimmo (2-for-4) and Jeff McNeil (1-for-2) are both batting .500.
Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich is 1-or-2 (.500) when facing Walker. Kolten Wong is 1-for-4 (.250) with an RBI.
Mets vs Brewers Prediction
Walker is absolute money in day games this year. And while the Mets may be locked into the playoffs, they’re still seeking to stave off the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves for the NL East crown.
Milwaukee is 2-4 over the past six games and 9-10 SU in September. The Brewers have endured four separate multi-game losing skids since August 23.
Pick: New York Mets ML (-125)