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Mets vs Reds Odds, Picks & Predictions (May 9)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated May 8, 2023 · 7:22 PM PDT

New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer in the dugout
May 3, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer (21) sits by himself on the dugout bench before heading to the bullpen to warm up for his start against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Mets are -220 favorites over the Reds on Tuesday night
  • Max Scherzer (2-2, 5.56) will start for the Mets against the Reds’ Luke Weaver (0-2, 7.88)
  • A look at the Mets vs Reds matchup and odds can be found below with a pick

Two scuffling teams meet in the opener of a three-game series when the New York Mets visit the Cincinnati Reds at 6:40 p.m. ET Tuesday at Great American Ball Park.

The Mets (17-18, 10-10 road) were routed by the Colorado Rockies 13-6 on Sunday at home for their fifth loss in their last six games, their seven in nine games and 11th in 14 games. The Reds (14-20, 10-8 home) have dropped three of their last four games and five of their last seven after getting hammered 17-4 by the Chicago White Sox on Sunday in Cincinnati.

Mets vs Reds Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
New York Mets -220 -1.5 (-135) Over 9 (-120)
Cincinnati Reds +180 +1.5 (+115) Under 9 (-100)

The Mets are -220 favorites on the moneyline over the Reds on Tuesday night in the MLB odds, giving them a 68.75% implied win probability. New York has +1000 World Series championship odds and Cincinnati is listed at a whopping +50000.

The temperature is expected to be 69 degrees at gametime with a low of 48, clear skies and northeast wind at 6 mph.



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Mets vs Reds Probable Pitchers

Max Scherzer (2-2, 5.56) is expected to pitch for the Mets against Luke Weaver (0-2, 7.88). Scherzer will be working on five days of rest and Weaver on seven.

Scherzer vs Weaver

Max Scherzer
Luke Weaver
2-2 Record 0-2
5.56 ERA 7.88
5.25 xERA 5.87
1.41 WHIP 1.69
2.00 SO/W 3.17

Scherzer got hammered in his last start as he returned from a 10-game suspension for Major League Baseball for doctoring a ball with a foreign substance.

The Tigers jumped on Scherzer for six runs and eight hits in 3.1 innings last Wednesday in Detroit. The three-time Cy Young Award winner struck out three and walked one while taking the loss.

Scherzer has his highest ERA through his first starts of the season since having a 7.77 mark in 2012 while pitching for the Tigers. His NL Cy Young odds are still just +1200, though.

In 10 career starts against the Reds, Scherzer has been dominant with a 6-2 record and 1.67 ERA.

Scherzer is 1-2 with a 7.13 ERA in four starts on the road this season and 1-2 with a 7.24 ERA in three starts at night. The Mets are 3-2 in Scherzer’s five outings, but he has recorded only one quality start.

Weaver lost his last start May 1 against the Padres in San Diego when he gave up four runs and nine hits in 4.1 innings with three strikeouts and two walks.

Weaver did look good on a rehab assignment.

This will be Weaver’s second career start versus the Mets. He is 1-0 against them with a 4.66 ERA in two starts.

Weaver had a no-decision in his lone start at home this season, getting tagged for six runs in 5.2 innings by the Texas Rangers on April 25. All three of Weaver’s starts have been at hone and none have been qualities as the Reds have gone 1-2 in those games.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Mets Batters Batting Average vs Luke Weaver
Starling Marte .417
Tommy Pham .333
Mark Canha .000
Tomas Nido .000
Reds Batters Batting Average vs Max Scherzer
Wil Myers .259
Jonathan India .125
Nick Senzel .000
Curt Casali .000
Tyler Stephenson .000
Luke Maile .000
Kevin Newman .000

Mets right fielder Starling Marte is 5 for 12 (.417) off Weaver in his career with a double. Reds third baseman Nick Senzel is hitless in six at-bats against Scherzer, striking out four times.

Mets vs Reds Betting Trends

The Mets allowed a season-high in runs Sunday in losing to the Rockies.

Jeff McNeil had three hits and two RBIs for New York. Luis Guillorme had two hits, Brett Baty drove in two runs and Daniel Vogelbach homered.

The Reds also gave up the most runs in a game this season as they were routed by the White Sox on Sunday. Cincinnati got all four of its runs on solo home runs by Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson and Wil Myers.

Left fielder Jake Fraley is expected to return after missing two games with lower-back stiffness. Left-handed reliever Reiver Sanmartin left Sunday’s game with a elbow soreness.

Mets vs Reds Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
8/10/22 Mets Reds NYM, 10-2
8/9/22 Mets Reds NYM, 6-2
8/8/22 Mets Reds NYM, 5-1
7/6/22 Reds Mets NYM, 8-3
7/5/22 Reds Mets CIN, 1-0
7/4/22 Reds Mets NYM, 7-4
8/1/21 Mets Reds CIN, 7-1
7/31/21 Mets Reds NYM, 5-4
7/30/21 Mets Reds CIN, 6-2
7/21/21 Reds Mets NYM, 7-0

This is the first meeting of 2023 between the teams after the Mets took five of six games last season. Center fielder Brandon Nimmo went 6 for 19 (.316) for the Mets with one double, seven runs scored and six RBIs.

Since 2014, the Mets have gone 36-15 against the Reds.

Mets vs Reds Prediction

It’s hard to back Scherzer at this point, especially since he admits he is also trying to pitch despite a sore shoulder. However, it’s hard to bet on Weaver, either. So, let’s take the over.

Pick: Over 8.5 -120

Season Record: 15-6 (+7.1 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 1-1 (+0.0 unit) O/U; 18-9 (+7.1 units) overall


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