MLB Odds: Who Traded Their Way to Top?

A late flurry of activity made for a wild and interesting MLB trade deadline. The Rangers, Cubs, Indians, and Nationals made it clear that this is their year to win the World Series. Meanwhile, the New York Yankees, who are notorious for buying at the deadline, went the other way, dealing a trio of stars and loading up on prospects.

Most agree the Texas Rangers were the biggest winners of the deadline deals. They added to an already powerful lineup by acquiring Jonathon Lucroy from the Milwaukee Brewers and Carlos Beltran from the Yankees. Lucroy provided the biggest drama of the weekend by vetoing a trade to the Cleveland Indians before getting dealt to Arlington. Texas failed to beef up on pitching – which was their biggest question mark heading into the stretch run – but still increased the likelihood of representing the American League in the World Series, thanks to that offensive boost.

The Chicago Cubs addressed their bullpen in a big way. They made the first big splash of the deadline deals by getting Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees. The flamethrower is one of the premier closers in the game and solidifies the back end of the pen. The Northsiders also added Mike Montgomery from the Seattle Mariners and Joe Smith from the Los Angeles Angels. The Cubs have been listed among the World Series favorites since the beginning of the season. These deals make it clear that winning this October is the first priority of president Theo Epstein.

While the talking heads praise contending teams for improving their current teams, many baseball insiders are saying the Yankees are the true winners of the trade deadline. The pinstripes dealt Beltran, Chapman, and Andrew Miller (to Cleveland) for a total of nine young players; many of whom are listed on watch lists as some of the top prospects in the game. Selling is certainly not the Yankees historical approach but it addresses an imminent need to get younger, and frees up salary for a wild 2018 free agency crop.

The trades are fun to analyze but they only result in a slight shift in power. A handful of contenders strengthened their rosters while others did nothing. We still have a long way to go in a wide-open baseball season. It’s August and nine teams are still listed at 15/1 or better. Let’s take a look at the current numbers.

2016 MLB Pre- and Post-Deadline Odds

Odds to win World Series before trade deadline:

Chicago Cubs: 6/1
Boston Red Sox: 8/1
Cleveland Indians: 8/1
Washington Nationals: 8/1
San Francisco Giants: 10/1
Houston Astros: 12/1
Texas Rangers: 12/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 14/1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 15/1
Baltimore Orioles: 20/1
Detroit Tigers: 30/1
St. Louis Cardinals: 30/1

Odds to win World Series after trade deadline:

Chicago Cubs: 5/1
Cleveland Indians: 7/1
Washington Nationals: 7/1
Texas Rangers: 8/1
San Francisco Giants: 10/1
Boston Red Sox: 12/1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 14/1
Houston Astros: 15/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 15/1
Baltimore Orioles: 20/1
Detroit Tigers: 30/1
St. Louis Cardinals: 30/1

Odds to win NLCS before trade deadline:

Chicago Cubs: 3/1
Washington Nationals: 4/1
San Francisco Giants: 5/1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 8/1
St. Louis Cardinals: 15/1
New York Mets: 16/1
Miami Marlins: 20/1
Pittsburgh Pirates: 20/1

Odds to win NLCS after trade deadline:

Chicago Cubs: 5/2
Washington Nationals: 7/2
San Francisco Giants: 5/1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 7/1
St. Louis Cardinals: 15/1
New York Mets: 16/1
Miami Marlins: 20/1
Pittsburgh Pirates: 40/1

Odds to win ALCS before trade deadline:

Boston Red Sox: 4/1
Cleveland Indians: 4/1
Houston Astros: 6/1
Texas Rangers: 6/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 7/1
Baltimore Orioles: 10/1
Detroit Tigers: 15/1
New York Yankees: 25/1

Odds to win ALCS after trade deadline:

Cleveland Indians: 7/2
Texas Rangers: 4/1
Boston Red Sox: 6/1
Houston Astros: 15/2
Toronto Blue Jays: 15/2
Baltimore Orioles: 10/1
Detroit Tigers: 15/1
Seattle Mariners: 25/1

World Series match-up odds before trade deadline:

Cubs vs. Red Sox: 12/1
Cubs vs. Indians: 12/1
Nationals vs. Red Sox: 16/1
Nationals vs. Cleveland Indians: 16/1
Nationals vs. Orioles: 40/1
Cubs vs. White Sox: 125/1
Mets vs. Yankees: 400/1
Cardinals vs. Royals: 600/1

World Series match-up odds after trade deadline:

Cubs vs. Indians: 9/1
Cubs vs. Rangers: 10/1
Nationals vs. Indians: 12/1
Nationals vs. Rangers: 14/1
Cubs vs. Red Sox: 15/1
Nationals vs. Orioles: 35/1
Cubs vs. White Sox: 125/1
Cardinals vs. Royals: 600/1
Mets vs. Yankees: 650/1

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