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New York Yankees’ World Series Odds Fall as Starting Pitchers Keep Getting Hammered

The New York Yankees' pitching has betrayed them lately. Is it a warning sign for their World Series aspirations? Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].
  • The New York Yankees’ World Series odds have started to slip
  • They sit well behind World Series favorites LA and Houston
  • After a quiet deadline and a rotation that could hold them back, are they worth betting?

It has been a curious season for the New York Yankees.

One of the best offensive teams in the league, they added Edwin Encarnacion. Then Didi Gregorius returned from injury. The lineup became one of the best in the league.

But the one big question surrounding the team, its starting staff, was never answered. A quiet deadline has Yanks fans antsy as August winds down.

World Series Odds

Team Record Bovada World Series Odds BetOnline World Series Odds
Houston Astros 78-44 +225 +300
Los Angeles Dodgers 82-42 +275 +300
New York Yankees 82-42 +425 +325
Atlanta Braves 72-52 +900 +1200
Chicago Cubs 64-58 +1600 +2000
Cleveland Indians 73-50 +1800 +1600
Minnesota Twins 74-48 +1800 +1600
New York Mets 62-60 +2000 +3300
Washington Nationals 66-55 +2200 +2000
St. Louis Cardinals 64-56 +2500 +2000
Tampa Bay Rays 71-52 +3000 +2500
Milwaukee Brewers 63-59 +3300 +3300
Oakland Athletics 69-52 +3500 +5000

*Odds taken 08/16/2019

As you can see from our World Series Odds tracker, the Yankees don’t have much to worry about in terms of their placement.

They’ve been alone in third place in the odds for a long time. And when it comes to the American League? The Indians are likely the only team that will come up and join them.

But a quiet Trade Deadline also prevents them from jumping up into that elite company. With no reinforcements coming in terms of pitchers, it seems like Vegas is hesitant to back a power-heavy lineup.

New York Yankees’ Rotation – Last 5 Starts

Pitcher Record Innings Pitched ERA OPP AVG K/BB
Masahiro Tanaka 4-1 26.2 8.10 .327 19/9
James Paxton 3-2 26.0 5.88 .255 35/9
JA Happ 3-2 25.0 7.56 .310 17/10
Domingo German 3-2 28.0 5.79 .270 29/5
CC Sabathia** 2-3 27.1 6.26 .288 25/6

*Statistics prior to 08/16/2019

**CC Sabathia currently on Injured List

It has not been a great run for Yankees starters as of late, averaging just over five innings a start. And none of those starters sport an ERA below 5.50.

It’s been so bad, that they now sit 18th in ERA from their starting pitchers.

While this numbers shouldn’t incite panic over the Yanks’ long-term viability, it does show us what the floor of the starting rotation is statistically.

And it’s not good.

Their best starter is also their most inexperienced. And while there’s no innings limit on Domingo German, he’ll likely come close to doubling last year’s innings total when 2019 is said and done.

And uncharted territory is a scary place to be come playoff time.

New York Yankees’ Hope Aroldis Chapman’s Struggles Are Done

The woes of the starting rotation have been able to be weathered a bit because Aroldis Chapman has re-discovered his form.

And it’s not a moment too soon either, as his July slump was worrisome.

Aroldis Chapman’s July vs August

July
VS
August

9 Appearances 6
4/3 Saves/Blown Saves 6/0
8.31 ERA 0.00
12 Strikeouts 10
11 Walks 1

If Chapman is locked in, it takes the stress off of Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Tommy Kahnle. While New York can’t trot that quarter out every night in the regular season, they could in the playoffs.

Which makes it conceivable that, on a run to the World Series, Aaron Boone could be turning to his bullpen to start the sixth. Eliminating that ‘third time through the order’ syndrome.

New York Yankees vs American League Contenders

Team Record Runs For Runs Against Games Remaining
Tampa Bay Rays 12-5 95 50 2
Cleveland Indians 1-3 18 38 4
Minnesota Twins 4-2 43 38 0
Houston Astros 3-4 37 39 0
Oakland Athletics 0-0 6

*Prior to 08/16/2019

Looking at their results against AL playoff teams, the Yankees need to figure out a way to hold on to home field advantage. Not only do they have an AL-best 47 home wins, but it’s a favorable playoff match-up.

While we’ll find out how they fare against Oakland next week, the Yankees have done well against potential Wild Card combatants Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

A match-up with Cleveland in the ALDS would be less-than-ideal however.

The potential returns of Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco could potentially neuter the Yankees’ bats, while Cleveland could give Yankee starters trouble.

Are the New York Yankees Worth it in the AL?

Despite their shortcomings when it comes to starters, New York is still the second-best team in the AL, with Cleveland right behind them.

As we explained above, we know the floor for the Yankees’ starting rotation. We just saw it. And the odds that all five are that bad at the same time again? Low.

It should be the Yankees and Astros fighting in the ALCS in October.

And while it’s tough to bet against Houston and that rotation, New York, followed by Cleveland are the only other two worth your money in the AL.

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