New York Yankees’ World Series Odds Fall as Starting Pitchers Keep Getting Hammered
- The New York Yankees’ World Series odds have started to slip
- They sit well behind World Series favorites LA and Houston
- After a quiet deadline and a rotation that could hold them back, are they worth betting?
It has been a curious season for the New York Yankees.
One of the best offensive teams in the league, they added Edwin Encarnacion. Then Didi Gregorius returned from injury. The lineup became one of the best in the league.
But the one big question surrounding the team, its starting staff, was never answered. A quiet deadline has Yanks fans antsy as August winds down.
World Series Odds
| Team | Record | World Series Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 78-44 | +225 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 82-42 | +275 |
| New York Yankees | 82-42 | +425 |
| Atlanta Braves | 72-52 | +900 |
| Chicago Cubs | 64-58 | +1600 |
| Cleveland Indians | 73-50 | +1800 |
| Minnesota Twins | 74-48 | +1800 |
| New York Mets | 62-60 | +2000 |
| Washington Nationals | 66-55 | +2200 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 64-56 | +2500 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 71-52 | +3000 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 63-59 | +3300 |
| Oakland Athletics | 69-52 | +3500 |
*Odds taken 08/16/2019
As you can see from our World Series Odds tracker, the Yankees don’t have much to worry about in terms of their placement.
They’ve been alone in third place in the odds for a long time. And when it comes to the American League? The Indians are likely the only team that will come up and join them.
But a quiet Trade Deadline also prevents them from jumping up into that elite company. With no reinforcements coming in terms of pitchers, it seems like Vegas is hesitant to back a power-heavy lineup.
New York Yankees’ Rotation – Last 5 Starts
| Pitcher | Record | Innings Pitched | ERA | OPP AVG | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masahiro Tanaka | 4-1 | 26.2 | 8.10 | .327 | 19/9 |
| James Paxton | 3-2 | 26.0 | 5.88 | .255 | 35/9 |
| JA Happ | 3-2 | 25.0 | 7.56 | .310 | 17/10 |
| Domingo German | 3-2 | 28.0 | 5.79 | .270 | 29/5 |
| CC Sabathia** | 2-3 | 27.1 | 6.26 | .288 | 25/6 |
*Statistics prior to 08/16/2019
**CC Sabathia currently on Injured List
It has not been a great run for Yankees starters as of late, averaging just over five innings a start. And none of those starters sport an ERA below 5.50.
It’s been so bad, that they now sit 18th in ERA from their starting pitchers.
the 13-2 record the Yankees have since the deadline is somewhat meaningless and we are seeing it first hand why.
what Cashman failed to do by not addressing the pitching will be our achilles heal come the postseason and today’s game is a prime example as to why.
— David Santana (@dsantana310) August 15, 2019
While this numbers shouldn’t incite panic over the Yanks’ long-term viability, it does show us what the floor of the starting rotation is statistically.
And it’s not good.
Domingo Germán has allowed three or fewer runs in 17 of his 21 starts this season. Two of the four in which he allowed 4+ were before he went on the IL with the hip issue. The two losses on his record were in games where he pitched 6 IP and allowed 3ER/4ER. Quite a season.
— Lindsey Adler (@lindseyadler) August 14, 2019
Their best starter is also their most inexperienced. And while there’s no innings limit on Domingo German, he’ll likely come close to doubling last year’s innings total when 2019 is said and done.
And uncharted territory is a scary place to be come playoff time.
New York Yankees’ Hope Aroldis Chapman’s Struggles Are Done
The woes of the starting rotation have been able to be weathered a bit because Aroldis Chapman has re-discovered his form.
And it’s not a moment too soon either, as his July slump was worrisome.
Aroldis Chapman’s July vs August
| 9 | Appearances | 6 |
| 4/3 | Saves/Blown Saves | 6/0 |
| 8.31 | ERA | 0.00 |
| 12 | Strikeouts | 10 |
| 11 | Walks | 1 |
If Chapman is locked in, it takes the stress off of Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Tommy Kahnle. While New York can’t trot that quarter out every night in the regular season, they could in the playoffs.
Blown saves:
Adam Ottavino: 5
Aroldis Chapman: 5
Andrew Cashner: 0
DD plays 8-D chess and gets no credit #RedSox
— J.R. Leandre (@realJRLeandre) August 14, 2019
Which makes it conceivable that, on a run to the World Series, Aaron Boone could be turning to his bullpen to start the sixth. Eliminating that ‘third time through the order’ syndrome.
New York Yankees vs American League Contenders
| Team | Record | Runs For | Runs Against | Games Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 12-5 | 95 | 50 | 2 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1-3 | 18 | 38 | 4 |
| Minnesota Twins | 4-2 | 43 | 38 | 0 |
| Houston Astros | 3-4 | 37 | 39 | 0 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0-0 | – | – | 6 |
*Prior to 08/16/2019
Looking at their results against AL playoff teams, the Yankees need to figure out a way to hold on to home field advantage. Not only do they have an AL-best 47 home wins, but it’s a favorable playoff match-up.
While we’ll find out how they fare against Oakland next week, the Yankees have done well against potential Wild Card combatants Tampa Bay and Minnesota.
A match-up with Cleveland in the ALDS would be less-than-ideal however.
All nine @Indians starters all have had multiple hit games tonight v. Yankees, and the club’s homer number 6 just left off the bat of @GregAllen315. Then @realslamtana makes it 19-4 with a another homer mid-tweet.
— Hugh Hewitt (@hughhewitt) August 16, 2019
The potential returns of Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco could potentially neuter the Yankees’ bats, while Cleveland could give Yankee starters trouble.
Are the New York Yankees Worth it in the AL?
Despite their shortcomings when it comes to starters, New York is still the second-best team in the AL, with Cleveland right behind them.
As we explained above, we know the floor for the Yankees’ starting rotation. We just saw it. And the odds that all five are that bad at the same time again? Low.
It should be the Yankees and Astros fighting in the ALCS in October.
And while it’s tough to bet against Houston and that rotation, New York, followed by Cleveland are the only other two worth your money in the AL.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
